The New York Times’ Nate Silver will emerge from this election as either the greatest predictor ever … or as a complete dufass.
We’re posting his column from yesterday so that we have it in the Homa Files archives …
We’ll know in 12 days, Nate.
Archive for October 26th, 2012
Nate Silver: Mitt’s momentum has stopped … oh, really?
October 26, 2012Countering Springsteen …
October 26, 2012… with Meat Loaf.
According to the Toledo Blade, a Romney event in Defiance, Ohio “featuring” Meat Loaf drew a crowd of 12,000.
Raises a couple of questions:
1, Did they come to see Mr. Romney or Mr. Loaf?
2. Do you think his friends call him “Meat” or “Loaf” or something else?
3. Seriously, did you know the Meat Loaf was still alive?
4. Can you name Meat Loaf’s biggest hit? Any of his other hits?
Answer: click to see Top Ten Best Meat Loaf Songs
Forget Ohio … watch Wisconsin.
October 26, 2012If Mitt’s route to the White House is through Ohio, I’m not optimistic for him … for 5 reasons:
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1. Romney isn’t leading in any of the Ohio polls.
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2. Romney is doing well in affluent suburbs … and, Ohio doesn’t have many of them.
Insightful analysis by Michael Barone:
A pro-Romney affluent swing is confirmed by the internals of some national polls.
Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown Romney carrying affluent suburbanites by statistically significant margins.
In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney.
That tends to validate a scenario that Mitt Romney fares much better in affluent suburbs
This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls.
Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in, say, Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.
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3. Obama’s early negative ad blitz worked in Ohio.
This is strictly anecdotal – from a small, non-projectable sample of friends & relatives in Cleveland.
They bought into Obama’s ad blitz demonizing Romney – they believe that he’ll stop their social security checks if elected.
Now, they’ve got ad fatigue and actively resist political commercials.
They’re classic uninformed voters. They get their news for the local NBC affiliate, so they haven’t even heard of Benghazi or the fiscal cliff.
Obama has them locked.
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4. Neither Gov. Kasich nor Sen. candidate Mandel are factors
I think Kasich is doing a good job balancing the budget and attracting business … Ohio’s unemployment rate is below the national average.
But, he’s only marginally popular because he has taken on the unions.
And, it doesn’t appear that he has a political apparatus in place to spur GOTV activity.
Mandel seems like a reasonable kid, but isn’t going to be a poll magnet
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5. The auto bailout is a simple, compelling story
Like it or hate it, people get it.
In a campaign with a lot of complicated issues, this is one folks can understand.
Simple message: Obama authorized the $$$, favored the unions, more people have jobs.
It’s a tough message to sell against.
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One Ohio bright spot for Romney
The best I can muster is that Obama only hits 50% in one poll … even the flakey Time poll only has him at 49%.
Conventional wisdom says that the undecideds break for the challenger … especially if he has some mo going.
What I’m watching: for Romney to take an Ohio lead in Rasmussen or Suffolk (only polls I really trust) … and then hit a 50% in one of them.
I call it a longshot.
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Why Wisconsin could break for Romney
First, the case against Romney in Wisconsin: trailing in all the polls, Obama at 50% in Rasmussen, Madison is a huge liberal hotbed – with a gazillion students ready to vote.
So, why do I think Wisconsin could break for Romney?
Basically, it’s the inverse of the Ohio logic:
1. Gov. Walker is a force – a winner.
2. Polls said Walker would barely escape the recall … he rolled up big numbers.
3. Tommy Thompson (former Governor) is popular and knows how to win … he may pull voters in.
4. More favorable demographics for Romney – more traditional Midwest values, more affluent suburbs than Ohio.
5. Wisconsin voters didn’t get the summer barrage of Obama’s “Romney is the devil” ads.
6. Obama dissed the unions during the recall election … I’m betting that they don’t forget.
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Bottom line
I’m betting Mitt’s road to the White House goes through Wisconsin not Ohio.
Did you “dual screen” the debates?
October 26, 2012According to Pew, 10% of the people watching the debates monitored a computer, tablet, or smartphone while watching.
Many were posting and reading social network sites or fact-checkers.
Morning line: The latest Presidential polls …
October 26, 2012The betting books still have Obama 2 to 1
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The RCP average is Romney up by about a point.
But, the polls from this week have Romney up by 2 points … with only ! poll (IBS) having Obama in the lead.
Romney hits 50% in 3 of the polls …
Big companies say: “Start me up” …
October 26, 2012Punch line: There’s a quiet revolution happening in corporate America.
Big companies are applying startup strategies and tools to jump-start innovation and renovation.
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Excerpted from Fast Company’s, “4 Innovation Strategies From Big Companies That Act Like Startups”
Big companies that behave like small startups focus on two things. First, they accelerate the speed of innovation, just like a Silicon Valley incubator. Second, they give internal businesses and teams an outside-in perspective.
Here are four strategies that anyone can use to start-up … innovation:
- Follow customers home: Intuit’s innovation success is tied to a value for finding and savoring … unexpected insights about customer needs, problems, and desired experiences. That’s why the company does customer “follow-me-homes,” … [to] immerse themselves in the customer’s natural environment.
- Tap outside collaborators: Kimberly-Clark knows that insular thinking is the death knell of teams and organizations. That’s why they … recruit a small group of “thought leaders” to … deliver strategic and practical insight that would otherwise take months to gather.
- Stay small: Big innovations don’t necessarily have to begin by taking big risks. Intuit, for example, … [doesn’t wait] around for senior leadership to sponsor and fund the next big idea but rather rapidly tests ideas to identify the things teams can do to have the biggest impact.
- Use the best, invent the rest: Speed and agility come from realizing we don’t have to invent everything ourselves. The strategy is to use the best … and then adapt it or combine it with other approaches that work within the specific company context.
These big-company strategies aren’t about ivory-tower innovation departments … they’re focused on pushing entrepreneurial thinking and practices into the places they’re needed the most–inside established businesses.
Edit by JDC
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