It has been a while since we looked into the employment numbers … long overdue.
I was awakened by a WSJ article that put a positive spin on the November jobs report – jobs continue to be added …. and, they’re full-time jobs:
“The economy has seen a net gain of more than 6 million full-time jobs since the official end date of the 2007-09 recession, which was in June 2009. The economy has witnessed a net increase of just 311,000 part-time jobs over the same period,”
Hmmm.
Let’s dig a little deeper.
What the Journal says is true, but not complete … and picking to start the chart at the trough of the recession obscures some of the context.
Let’s go back to the economy right before the recession … you know, the “old normal”…
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The civilian labor force – which has been declining as a fraction of the working age population — increased about 4 million since early 2008.
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Full-time employment today is about 2 million below the same starting point.
Putting those 2 series together, about 80% of the labor force had full-time jobs before the recession … about 76% do now.
That 4% dip might not seem like a big deal … unless you’re in that 4%, of course.
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Part-time employment surged about 3 million during the recession.
An increase in part-time employment is common in a recession.
What’s uncommon is that part-time employment usually falls back after a recession as companies restock with full-timers.
That didn’t happen this time … what the Journal says is true: part-time employment has stayed level since the recession.
What the article overlooks is that the recessionary part-time spike didn’t readjust … it stayed at the increased level.
Why? Hint: ObamaCare.
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Finally, unemployment – expressed in numbers of people, not the usual percentage — is still 2 million higher than before the recession.
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Let’s recap:
Compared to where the economy was before the recession …
- The civilian labor force is up by 4 million
- Part-time employment is up by 3 million.
- Full-time employment is still down by 2 million.
- The percentage of the labor force working full-time has dropped 4 percentage points.
- The number of unemployed is up 2 million.
So, the picture may be improving, but it’s still not good … especially if you compare to where we were before the crash.
That’s the comparison that most folks make – not from the bottom of the recession — and why they’re still discouraged about the economy.
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