TechView: The 2 market charts that I’m watching …

I don’t give investment advice.  Period.

That said, there are the 2 technical charts that I have on my radar.

The first is a simple “channeled” trend view of the S&P 500


The takeaway:

For the past 3-1/2 years, the S&P has been trending upward (no news there) … within a fairly constant band delimited by the highs and lows.

Besides being a psychological trigger, the 2000 level appears to have been a significant technical breakpoint.

Hindsight is 20/20 … I should have bailed on my S&P Index holdings when the 200 level was broken.

But, of course, I didn’t.


The 2nd chart zooms in on the last 5 days of trading.



Interesting analysis reported by CNBC


The CNBC analyst’s commentary:

This is a chart of the S&P 500 going back five full trading days, along with a green trendline showing the prevailing direction.

Every time the market touched the line, it fell right back down.

This is why just looking at a single day’s performance doesn’t actually tell us if we have broken back up.

Yes, we were up a lot for most of Tuesday, but that was starting at such a low base. C

omparing a price to an arbitrary 4 p.m. cutoff doesn’t tell you the full story of the overall minute-by-minute market moves.

That downward trendline still rules the markets until it’s been broken.

We could be up again Wednesday, even another 50 points on the S&P, over 2.5 percent, and still have not broken back above the trendline.

It might touch the line and fall right back down.

This will be something to watch in the coming days. The SPX will need to be at least above 1,925 for us to safely say we have made it through this short-term mess.

I added the dashed lines delimiting the last couple of days.

My take: Looks like a trading range from 1,850 to 1,950.

A dip below 1,850 could be ominous.

A rally past 1,950 may signal “whew”.

Let’s see what happens.



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