Archive for October 17th, 2016

Will Hillary post for the 3rd debate?

October 17, 2016

Here are some debate predictions prompted by Axelrod’s tweet .

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Late last week, Trump opined that both candidates should be drug tested before Wednesday’s debate … ostensibly, to make sure that Hillary’s not being propped up by chemical additives.

David Axlerod – Obama’s chief political strategist – countered with idea that Hillary should scratch from the debate card.

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I don’t know which is the wilder idea: drug testing or scratching?

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At least the latter started me thinking …

What does Hillary have to gain by showing up … or not?

If she doesn’t show up, rumors will immediately surface that she has another bout of pneumonia … or worse.

Hmmm.

Or, all but the MSM will pound her: “How can we expect you to stand up to Putin if you can’t stand up to Trump … and Fox’s Chris Wallace?”

Double hmmm.

Advantage to to showing up.

But wait …

Let’s add one more piece and then connect the dots.

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Debates | Leave a Comment »

Which poll was most accurate in the 2012 Presidential race?

October 17, 2016

The answer may surprise you … and, give some of you heartburn.

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The most reported polling result is probably the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls … the average across the hal-dozen or so polls that RCP deems to be the most credible.

In 2012, the RCP average just before the election – the purple line below — pegged Obama’s lead at about 1 point.

Obama ended up winning by about 4 points.

That’s a pretty big miss.

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The poll that came the closest according to RCP was the Rand Poll  … the aqua line above.

Rand had Obama as a 3 point favorite … within a point of the final tally.

So, how come we’re not hearing about the Rand poll these days?

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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »