The Homa Files

Can a race change that much in 3 days?

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Earlier in the week, we tried to make sense of the WaPo-ABC poll that had Clinton leading by 12 … while IBD – the most accurate poll in 2012 had the race tied.

The 12 points just didn’t smell right.

Well, guess what?

WaPo-ABC is out with new poll results halving the Clinton lead to 6 points.

 

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So, what happened between Monday and Wednesday?

Not much as well as I can tell, except ….

WaPo-ABC juggled with their party weightings.

A couple of days ago, only 27% of likely voters were Republican … now it’s 29%.

That accounts for some (less than 2) of the 6 points.

The rest?

Can’t tell … they don’t report the details for voter preference by party, gender, race, etc.

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What are the other polls saying?

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IBD had the race even at the start of week … but now has Hillary leading by 3.

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The LA Times survey –- 4th most accurate in 2012 –- has Trump up by 2 and gaining steam.

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You can pick your favorite … we’ll keep watching.

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P.S.  Given a psyche dynamic called “confirmation bias” ….

If you’re pro-Hillary you still love WaPo (and always have) but are worried that’s it’s suddenly getting honest … and, you’re starting to think you were wrong pooh-poohing the LAT survey earlier in the week since it’s starting to make sense now.

If you’re pro-Trump (or anti-Hillary) .. then you like the WaPo trend line …. and, think that the LAT survey is truth: Trump leading and gaining steam.

Right?

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This entry was posted on October 28, 2016 at 7:15 am and is filed under 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.