WaPo: “Forget 12 points, maybe it’s only 6″

Can a race change that much in 3 days?


Earlier in the week, we tried to make sense of the WaPo-ABC poll that had Clinton leading by 12 … while IBD – the most accurate poll in 2012 had the race tied.

The 12 points just didn’t smell right.

Well, guess what?

WaPo-ABC is out with new poll results halving the Clinton lead to 6 points.




So, what happened between Monday and Wednesday?

Not much as well as I can tell, except ….

WaPo-ABC juggled with their party weightings.

A couple of days ago, only 27% of likely voters were Republican … now it’s 29%.

That accounts for some (less than 2) of the 6 points.

The rest?

Can’t tell … they don’t report the details for voter preference by party, gender, race, etc.


What are the other polls saying?


IBD had the race even at the start of week … but now has Hillary leading by 3.



The LA Times survey –- 4th most accurate in 2012 –- has Trump up by 2 and gaining steam.



You can pick your favorite … we’ll keep watching.


P.S.  Given a psyche dynamic called “confirmation bias” ….

If you’re pro-Hillary you still love WaPo (and always have) but are worried that’s it’s suddenly getting honest … and, you’re starting to think you were wrong pooh-poohing the LAT survey earlier in the week since it’s starting to make sense now.

If you’re pro-Trump (or anti-Hillary) .. then you like the WaPo trend line …. and, think that the LAT survey is truth: Trump leading and gaining steam.




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One Response to “WaPo: “Forget 12 points, maybe it’s only 6″”

  1. AS Says:

    Here are Nate Silver’s stats on the probabilities of each candidate winning the election – currently showing a predicted win for Clinton (50% vs 44% for DJT and 5% for Johnson): http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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