Archive for November 4th, 2016

Silver: Breach in Hillary’s blue firewall ?

November 4, 2016

Trump’s chances are up to about 1 in 3, according to Dem-darling pollster Nate Silver.

image

=========

And, looking at the race’s dynamics, Silver see’s some red flags:

There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall.

And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks ago could be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters.

Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race … other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

If Clinton lost New Hampshire but won her other firewall states, each candidate would finish with 269 electoral votes, taking the election to the House of Representatives.

Or maybe not — if Clinton also lost the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, where polls show a tight race and where the demographics are unfavorable to her, Trump would win the Electoral College 270-268, probably despite losing the popular vote.

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Is Virginia in the bag for Hillary?

November 4, 2016

Based on recent history, I think not.

========

Yesterday we posted results from a Hampton College poll that had Trump pulling to within 3 points of Clinton … after trailing by double digits just a week or so again.

image

I have no idea whether Hampton College polls are credible, or not.

But, the most recent results brought to mind the 2014 Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and former RNC head Ed Gillespie.

As Nate Silver put it:

Everything favored Warner.

He’d raised considerably more money than Gillespie and won overwhelmingly in 2008.

Gillespie — while an experienced political hand as the former head of the Republican National Committee — had never run for public office before.

Source

Right before the election, the polls had Warner up by about 9 points.

Gillespie was closing, but the gap was big.

image

========

So, what was the outcome?

(more…)

Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys, Virginia | Leave a Comment »