Justice Amy Coney Barrett !

Kavanaugh is toast … and, she’s the likely nomination.
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The new allegations reported in the New Yorker are likely  fatal to Kavanaugh’s nomination.

They’re everything that the Ford accusations weren’t:  heavy on details with specific time and place; eyewitnesses; contemporaneous word-of-mouth.  See the  New Yorker article for the graphic details.

I thought that Kavanaugh would survive Ford’s suspiciously-timed, gap-filled, uncorroborated charges.  In fact, I thought the odds were less than 50/50 that Ford would show up to testify this week.

But, these new accusations are a game-changer.

Hard to imagine Kavanaugh surviving this onslaught.  I expect that his nomination will be withdrawn.

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So, let’s advance the story and anticipate the next steps…

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A little over a week ago, I posted Justice Amy Coney Barrett ? and warned Dems to be careful what they wished for … that tanking Kavanaugh would put Barrett back in play.

Now, I’m replacing the question mark with an exclamation point.

Hanging with Kavanaugh is a non-starter.

If the GOP senatorial majority pushes the Kavanaugh confirmation through, the mid-terms will be a #MeToo bloodbath … and the rest of Trump’s agenda will stall.

So, what to do?

Amy Coney Barrett – runner-up to Kavanaugh in Trump’s selection process – is back in play.

Last week, rumors started to float that Trump was never fully invested in Kavanaugh because of his “establishment” ties  … and that the FBI was in the process of updating Barrett’s background file so she’d be ready to roll.

Barrett is conservative Catholic mother of 7 from the heartland who currently serves on the 7th District Court of Appeals gets bumped up in the depth chart.

She’s clean as a whistle … and, given her short tenure as a judge, benefits from a minimalist paper trail.

So, Dems will be forced to skewer a woman going into the mid-term elections.

Trump’s base will be energized for the elections … especially the Evangelicals.

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But, there isn’t enough time to get her confirmation done…

Maybe yes, maybe no.

First, there is a likelihood that the GOP remains control of the Senate.

And, if the Dems take control of the Senate, they don’t do so until January.

GOP can play hardball and let the lame duck Senate confirm her.

Worst case (for GOP): Dems take the Senate and the SCOTUS stays 4 to 4 for 2 years and Trump — like Obama — will only have a “pen and a phone”.

My bet: GOP holds the Senate … and Barrett gets confirmed.

So, the Dems may end up getting Barrett instead of Kavanaugh.

That’s what I was hoping for in the first place…

The next couple of days will be very interesting.

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P.S. One of the most compelling tweets that I read last night:

“For those saying Dr. Ford and Deborah Ramirez’s allegations against Kavanaugh are a liberal attempt to block his confirmation, please note there were no such accusations of sexual assault against Neil Gorsuch, who stole Merrick Garland’s seat.”

Point well taken … swayed my opinion re: Kavanaugh.

Now that Gorsuch is seated, maybe Trump will surprise the world and nominate Garland.

Hmmm.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

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3 Responses to “Justice Amy Coney Barrett !”

  1. LosLobos Says:

    With more accusations coming courtesy of Avenatti, I concur

  2. Jack Clark Says:

    Lynch mob terrorizes U.S.
    RINOs stand and watch.

    We are nearing a European condition.

  3. Jack Clark Says:

    Why would any conservative nominee trust the “men” on the Republican side? I now remember why I voted for Trump.

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