Post-Kavanaugh, momentum seems to have shifted.
A few weeks ago, most pollsters predicted that Dems would win a Congressional majority and that they stood a shot at taking the Senate.
That picture seems to have changed … quite a bit.
RealClearPolitics is a down-the middle source that reports several polls-of-polls.
One tracks Congressional races, slotting them as likely Dem, likely GOP or toss-ups.
It takes 218 seats to control the Congress (which has 435 representatives).
A couple of weeks ago, RCP was reporting 206 seats as likely Dem, 191 likely GOP and 38 toss-ups.
Now, the RCP recap is Dems 206 and GOP 199 … with 30 toss-ups.
The Dem “hard” advantage has narrowed from 15 seats to 7 … with most of the GOP gain coming from the toss-ups (note the near mirror image of the GOP and toss-up lines).
What’s going on?
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According to an array of pundits:
1) The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation appears to have nationalized the campaign, causing some Trump-skeptical Republican voters to return to the fold. WSJ
2) Lower-income/young/urban Hispanics just aren’t that motivated to vote. And guess who’s left: higher-income / older / suburban Hispanics … many of whom view Trump in a favorable light. Source
3) The highly visible, confrontational tactics of the far-lefties are alarming many moderates … and turning off others. Media (e.g. CNN) banning the word “mob” (i.e. the “M word”) is bringing attention to the, err, mobs.
4) Trump is a master at controlling the news cycle … and an increasing number of people are willing to accept his crude behavior since it seems to be delivering results.
Still a couple of weeks until the vote levers are pulled…
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