What if Warren wins?

“Resist” may be alive and well … with the tables turned


Yesterday we ran through a couple of scenarios if Trump did end up getting bounced from office.

The scenarios assumed that Trump would still run in 2020, probably against Warren, maybe with a “moderate” independent jumping in.

My bet: Trump would be be re-elected.


Largely because Trump supporters would turn out in droves, angry that their votes were overturned by flimsy political machinations … and because:


“In recent interviews of several big-money Democratic donors and fundraisers in the business community, CNBC has found that this opinion is becoming widely shared as Warren surges against Joe Biden.”

Specifically, big bank executives and hedge fund managers that electing Warren would be tantamount to “shutting down their industry.”

And, oh yeah, there’s that wealth tax that she has been proposing.


Even while pulling back their support, some Wall Streeters are strategizing for a possible life under President Warren…


Consider a recent CNBC headline:


For example, while still giving Trump a slight edge in their base case prediction,  investment house Raymond James is telling clients:

“We believe Warren is within striking distance of winning both the nomination and White House”

According to CNBC, that sentiment is shared by RBC Capital Markets which, in its quarterly Mood of the Market newsletter, noted that “most investors still expect Trump to be re-elected – but doubts may be creeping in.”


So, what would a Trump – Warren contest look like?

Both shun the establishment and rely on fervent grassroots support:

Warren and Trump differ widely on nearly every policy.

But, part of the Democrat’s success stems from her use of the populist rhetoric that Trump uses in his own messaging.

Populism is a political approach that seeks to appeal to ordinary citizens who feel that their well-being — economic, social or otherwise — is being exploited by elites.

Of course, the differences are stark:

Trump emphasizes free markets, economic growth and jobs.

Warren preaches government control, wealth redistribution and freebies.

As I used to always tell my students:

Never underestimate “the power of free”.


Regardless of who wins…

My view: “RESIST” is now permanently ingrained in U.S. politics.

If Trump wins, that’s certain.

If Warren wins, as Forrest Gump would say:

“What goes around comes around.”


So, not much is likely to change.

That may be a good thing …


Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

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