Archive for July 15th, 2020

Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?

July 15, 2020

Test results come too late for therapeutic decisions … and “the science” still can’t answer basic questions.

Based on some back-of-the envelop arithmetic, I estimate that about 13 million Covid tests have been administered in the 3 weeks ending July 13

Note: The time period is strictly arbitrary.  And, since I don’t have all of the daily data series, I just derived rough estimates off the charts. I doubt conclusions would change much with a different time period or more precise numbers 


Now, let’s drill down on those numbers….


Of the roughly 13 million tests that were reported, over 12 million (94%) came back covid-negative’.

Note: Practically all headline reporting is “confirmed cases” — the test results that were covid-positive. Total test minus positive results estimates negative results.


My 1st question is who the heck are these 12 million people who are testing negative … and why, in the first place, are they even being covid-tested.

Some possibilities:

  • They’re exhibiting flu-like symptoms that might indicate covid.
  • They know (or think) that they’ve been exposed to the virus … via a super-spreader person or at a superspreading event
  • Their employer is making them take the test (e.g. frontline healthcare workers)
  • They’re participating in a medical research project (e.g. a vaccine trial)
  • They’ve been selected to be part of a random surveillance sample
  • They’re trying to be good citizens by participating in the “test, test, test” program
  • They’re just curious as to whether or not they’re infected.

I think the top 5 categories are pretty legit.

The last 2 strike me as a waste of constrained testing capacity.

Regardless, wouldn’t it be nice to know how the 12 million sorts out by those categories?

Apparently, that sort of classification data isn’t captured at the  point-of-testing … or, public health officials just aren’t making the data available.

That’s too bad


Moving on…

Less than 1 million of the 13 million tested Covid-positive … a “positivity rate” of 6%.

Who are these people and how are they treated when they’re tagged as infected?

I’d like to know:

  • How many present with severe, mild or no symptoms?
  • Do they have co-morbidities or not?  If yes, how many? Which ones?
  • What treatment plan is prescribed? Hospitalization? Quarantine? R&R?

Again, it appears that this sort of classification data isn’t captured at the  point-of-testing … or, public health officials just aren’t making the data available.


Bottom line: We need to focus constrained testing resources on therapeutic decision incidences … and, we need to gather and analyze more classification so that the testing helps pin down how this virus is acting.

Testing that simply increases the number of tests doesn’t seem to be getting us anywhere.

NYT editor resigns … and makes the obvious evident.

July 15, 2020

“The paper of record is, more and more, the record of those living in a distant galaxy”

Bari Weiss, a high-profile editor and writer for the New York Times opinion section, resigned Monday, citing what she said was unchecked bullying from colleagues and depicting the news organization as a place where the free exchange of ideas was no longer welcome. Source

Ms. Weiss bills herself as a non-ideological centrist.  A position that seems to be borne out in media reactions to her resignation.

Liberal media sentiment: “Good riddance”; Conservative media: “Nice try, Dani”.


What’s noteworthy is the scathing resignation letter that Ms. Weiss wrote and published online.

Here are some snippets….



July 15, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
139,143 Worldometer

895 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 739




Currently Hospitalized

> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average      48,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000



Confirmed Cases

> 65,594 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    63,693
> Highest day        68,000  July 10
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414