Archive for June, 2020

Shocker: Virus spreads on crowded buses and subways…

June 30, 2020

So, how are urban workers going to get to work?
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Remember when NYC Mayor de Blasio hopped on the subway to reassure people that they need not worry about catching the coronavirus by riding the trains? Source

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Well, a couple of recently published studies debunk de Blasio’s “not to worry” … and raises some very thorny issues…

(more…)

June 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 30, 2020

> 38,845 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,192 

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WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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351 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 581
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,788 Worldometer
183,407 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 9 states reporting more than 10 new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in RI, MS and MA

click to enlarge table
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Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

June 29, 2020

Apparently, that’s a bell that can’t be unrung … and young “invincibles” are driving current coronavirus case spikes
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There’s no denying that that confirmed Covid cases have bumped back up to prior peak levels … about 30.000 new cases per day.

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Digging a little deeper…

New cases have dropped from sky-high levels in the Northeast … and held relatively constant in the Midwest.

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But, cases have exploded in the West and the South

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Source: WSJ

One obvious point: hot weather doesn’t seem to kill off the virus.

And, there is some chatter that virus-spreading air conditioning systems may be spreading the virus (think: Legionnaires disease).

But, most determining,, there has been a huge shift in the demographic profile of the cases which suggests that young invincibles aren’t so invincible after all…

(more…)

June 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 29, 2020

299 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 583
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,437 Worldometer
183,808 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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None of the Bottom 39 states reported 25 or more New Deaths

June 28: Key NATIONAL Data

June 28, 2020

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

image_thumb2
WSJ

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498 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 578
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,138 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 183,599 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

June 27: Key NATIONAL Data

June 27, 2020

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
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Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

image
WSJ

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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

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WSJ     See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

Pew: Plurality of protesters are young white Democrats…

June 26, 2020

Some interesting survey results from Pew Research:

> 40% of recent protesters are White; only 17% of  are Black; Hispanics outnumber Blacks.

> 80% are under 50; of that group, the majority  are under 30.

> Roughly 80% are Democrats.

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Source: Pew

Digging a little deeper into the numbers…

(more…)

June 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 26, 2020

585 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 597
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,866 Worldometer
183,358 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47)  TX (41)  AZ (27)

Shocker: NYC contact tracing program off to a “slow start”

June 25, 2020

Infected people are hard to locate and reluctant to give up their contact info.
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According to the NY Times…

Since June 1, NY has been ramping up its Covid test & trace program.

About 50,000 people are being tested each day.

  • Note: Scant info is reported on who is being tested … People with symptoms? Curious people without symptoms? Random samples?

The goal is to contact everybody who tests positive … and then identify and contact everybody who has recently come in close contact (within 6 feet for more than 15 minutes) … and urge the contacts to get tested and self-quarantine.

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Sounds easy enough, right?

So, what’s the problem?

(more…)

June 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 25, 2020

805 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 620
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,281 Worldometer
185,661 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (79)  TX (42)  AL (27)

Cases up, deaths down … huh?

June 24, 2020

Let’s start with the data …

The 7-day average of Covid cases is up 30% in past week

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The 7-day average of deaths is down 10% in past week.

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How can this be?

(more…)

June 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 24, 2020

866 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
123,476 Worldometer
185,533 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
Delaware (68)  AZ (42)  GA (46)  TX(33)

Circa 1985: Faith Popcorn’s “Future Trends” …

June 23, 2020

Cocooning, Icon Toppling, Futuretense
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When I taught Basic Marketing, I covered “marketing information” … including the usual material on marketing research and analysis.

For fun (and relevance), I usually included some stuff on trend spotting — topics like demographic changes and evolving consumer hot buttons and preferences.

Always a crowd-pleaser was work done by a “pop marketing futurist” who named herself Faith Popcorn.

In a couple of best-selling books (The Popcorn Report, Clicking), Popcorn zeroed in on the major trends that she thought marketers needed to consider.

At the time, Popcorn was sometimes characterized as:

“An always on-duty watchperson of cultural change … who makes a living selling stardust to corporate types”

Here’s the core of the “stardust” that Popcorn was (and is) peddling:

click to enlarge
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Keep in mind that most of the projections were developed in the mid-1980’s … and note that all have relevance now — 35 years later in 2020.

Let’s drill down on a couple of them…

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Cocooning

In her 1991 book, The Popcorn Report, Popcorn describes cocooning as:

The impulse to go inside when it just gets too tough and scary outside.

To pull a shell of safety around yourself, so you’re not at the mercy of a mean, unpredictable world.

A world offering harassments and assaults that run the gamut from rude waiters and noise pollution to crack-crime, recession and AIDS.

Cocooning is about insulation and avoidance, peace and protection, coziness and control-a sort of hyper-nesting.

At the time, Popcorn saw the intersection of an increasingly hostile world — mild by today’s standard — and advancing technology that made staying-at-home more entertaining and provided windows into the outside world.

Fast forward to today’s Covid-induced sheltering-in-place … the epitome of “super nesting”.

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Idol Toppling

Stated simply: A growing mass of skeptics and idealists question and reject all pillars or society … government, corporations, religions.

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Need I say more?

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Futuretense

Anxiety-ridden by simultaneous social, economic, political and ethical chaos, people find themselves beyond their ability to cope today or imagine tomorrow.

Change is never easy, and FutureTense captures the deep consumer unrest related to what we call FOF (Fear of the Future).

In the early 90s, anxiety began growing, and people were increasingly unsure of how to navigate the choppy waters ahead.

The foundations of their world – assuming they’d own their own home, that America was composed primarily of white heterosexuals, that we were moving towards world peace, that the planet was healthy and that our longevity would keep increasing – were rocked.

The explosive growth of the Internet and mobile devices were a huge boon, but unsettling for some – and brought a sense of Data Danger, a new wave of worries about hacking, malware, and a host of other ills.

The economic downturn that hit in 2007-8 only served to exacerbate consumer fears and anxiety.

Of course, the coronavirus has has put Futuretense into overdrive…

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I think that Popcorn has been vindicated of the “stardust” charge.

Her trend-spots have been both on target and enduring.

As they say: Plus ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose.

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P.S. Faith is still popping … her Trends Blog is worth browsing.

Re-opening schools may not be as easy as it sounds.

June 22, 2020

Complying with CDC guidelines may be cost prohibitive and logistically impossible.
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One of my biggest coronavirus concerns has been the school-shut-down impact on kids … both socially and educationally.

Since children are negligibly hurt by the virus (i.e. lower infection vulnerability, minor or no symptoms when infected, low transmission-forward rate),  I’ve been a advocate for re-opening schools ASAP.

I’ve been implicitly assuming that “cleaning” the schools’ environment would be no big deal … just move the desks further apart and double down on nighttime deep-cleaning.

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I’ve been glossing over the economics and the logistics…

(more…)

June 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 22, 2020

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
122,246 Worldometer
186,258 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

June 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 20, 2020

704 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
121,392 Worldometer
189,987 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (41)  GA (31)  TX (27)  IN (25)

WSJ: Not to worry, hospitals have capacity.

June 19, 2020

Today, the  WSJ concedes that  cases have spiked in some areas but advises us to…

Focus on the burden on hospitals, not on models’ oft-mistaken forecasts .

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Specifically, the WSJ points out that — even in currently reported hot spots — hospitals have substantial unused capacity (beds) to cope with spikes …and, medical staffs are better prepared to treat patients more efficiently and more effectively.

Here are the numbers…

(more…)

June 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 19, 2020

747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 666
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
120,688 Worldometer
193,231 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
NC (54)  TX (37)  AZ (32)  GA (30)

The “summer slide” meets the coronavirus…

June 18, 2020

In his 2008 bestseller Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of an educational “summer slide”.

Referencing a tracking study of Baltimore City Public School students, Gladwell highlighted evidence that students’ standardized test scores in the fall were generally lower than their scores in the prior spring.

His observation: “Between school years, students’ accumulated learning is diminished”.

In other words, there is a statistically significant “forget factor” if learning isn’t reinforced and edged forward with summer enrichment activities (think: summer school, educational camps, field trips, parental tutoring).

The summer slide is most pronounced for poor students who lack summer enrichment opportunities … and for all students in math. 

The black line below illustrates the math score drop-off for typical 3rd, 4th and 5th graders. On average, the typical summer slide in math skills is about 2%.  That is, students are 2% less proficient in math after their summer vacations.

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Source: WSJ

To make matters worse, note the red line on the chart … it illustrates the projected drop-off due to this year’s virus-induced school closings.

It’s estimated that students will be about 5% less proficient in math than they were when the schools closed … the combined effect of lesser learning during the schools’ shut-down period and an extended summer slide (with many schools declaring no mas in early June) .

More specifically…

(more…)

June 18: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 18, 2020

829 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 687
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
119,941 Worldometer
193,481 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46) TX (43)  IN (28)

WSJ: The data are in …

June 17, 2020

Compelling for “group distancing”, not so much for shelter-in-place
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According to a WSJ op-ed…

Four new analyses of actual results show how the initial projections overestimated the value of lockdowns.

Fortunately, economists no longer have to rely on inherently flawed projections. They can use real data.

In what might turn out to be the best paper on the economics of Covid-19, a team of economists from the University of California, Berkeley carefully evaluated empirical data on social distancing, shelter-in-place orders, and lives saved.

And, here’s what the real data is saying…

(more…)

June 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 17, 2020

849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 711
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
119,132 Worldometer
195,935 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
759 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
TX (46) GA (35) NC (29) AZ (25)

June 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 16, 2020

430 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
118,283 Worldometer
199,597 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
760 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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39 states with 25 or more New Deaths: GA (43)

Covid death risk: Some good news.

June 15, 2020

Today, let’s put Covid death rates in perspective…
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By now it’s clear that people older than 65 are the most vulnerable to the novel coronavirus, and the age penalty is severe for the elderly nursing home patients with underlying health conditions.

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Source: WSJ, CDC

According to the WSJ:

  • About 2/3s of Covid deaths have been over 65
  • The median age of death 80.
  • About 1/4 Covid deaths have been folks over 85.
  • 95% of deaths involved at least 1 chronic condition
  • 60% of deaths had three or more comorbidity factors
  • About 1/2 of all Covid deaths have been nursing home patients

Here’s some good news that puts those numbers in perspective…

(more…)

June 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 15, 2020

327 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
117,863 Worldometer
208,320 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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No Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths

June 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 14, 2020

707 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
117,526 Worldometer
215,079 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
FL moved up from #11 to #10 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (39) GA (28)

June 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 13, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

790 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 949
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
116,819
Worldometer
223,155 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
474 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
IL moved up to #4 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47), TN (27), MN (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

WSJ: “NY’s Coronavirus Response Made the Pandemic Worse”

June 12, 2020

We’ve been on this case for awhile.

Today’s WSJ  laid out the case that:

New York leaders’ coronavirus response was marred by missed warning signs and policies that put residents at greater risk and led to unnecessary deaths.

The virus has hit New York harder than any other state, cutting through its densely populated urban neighborhoods and devastating the economy.

New York state’s death toll accounts for 27% of American deaths.

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Here are the WSJ’s supporting conclusions…

(more…)

June 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 12, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

899 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
116,028
Worldometer
227,205 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
476 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46), AZ (32), OH (25), TX (25), in (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

More: Can following “the science” be hazardous to your health?

June 11, 2020

Now, the WHO does a u-turn on masks.
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Longstanding,  the “gold standard” WHO advised  against wearing masks, saying:

There isn’t enough medical evidence to support members of the public wearing a mask, unless they were sick or around people with the coronavirus. WebMD

Even the CDC bailed on this one earlier, so you had to see it coming…

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Here’s the skinny…

(more…)

June 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 11, 2020

976 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,010
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
115,130
Worldometer
171,598 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
417 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or  more New Deaths:
GA (44), MN (39), TX (28), AZ (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Update: 2/3s of C-19 deaths have been 65 and over…

June 10, 2020

Not exactly new news, but for the record …

  • About 1 in 4 C-19 deaths have been folks over 85.
  • About 2 in 3 have been over 65
  • Practically no deaths for those under 35.

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Source: WSJ, CDC

Can following “the science” around in circles be hazardous to your health?

June 10, 2020

At a minimum, it can make you dizzy…
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I  sense that coronavirus interest has started to wane, so you might have missed this one.

From the get-go, we were warned of that “silent spreaders” — the 50% of people who get infected by the coronavirus but never show any of the symptoms — would, in fact, spread the virus like wildfire.  So, bunker down.

Based on  modeling studies the WHO had advised that as much as 41% of transmission may be due to asymptomatic people … spreading through loud talking, singing or shouting. Source: WaPo

But, earlier this week the WHO — the “gold standard” in worldwide medical expertise — did a u-turn:

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Specifically, Maria Van Kerkhove, a Stanford trained MD who is the WHO’s technical lead for coronavirus response said:

From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.

We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing.

They’re following asymptomatic cases, they’re following contacts and they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. Source: CNN

Whew!  One less thing to fret about, right?

Not so fast, mes amies…

It took the WHO less than 24 hours to turn the u-turn into a full 360….

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June 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 10, 2020

Caution: 6 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

1,093 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,033
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
114,154
Worldometer
173,019 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
462 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with more than 25 New Deaths:
GA (77), TX (27), NC (27)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Chaos, Cortisol and “Crisis Fatigue”

June 9, 2020

On my weekly trip to the grocery store (during Sunrise Senior Hours, of course), I sensed a change in folks’ demeanor.  Many people had a defeated, hang-dog look on their masked faces.

I thought it might just be me projecting my feelings onto them, but when I got home, I spotted an article in WIRED titled “All This Chaos Might Be Giving You ‘Crisis Fatigue”.

The punch line: Your body is well adapted to handle temporary stresses, but it may be overwhelmed by the constant, unrelenting pressures we’re all currently facing.

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Here’s the essence of the article…

(more…)

June 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 9, 2020

Caution: 16 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
113,061
Worldometer
169,951 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
473 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with more than 20 New Deaths:
GA (27), RI (26), AL (23)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATE Data

June 8, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends;
several states (none in top 12) didn’t report on Sunday.

375 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 897
> Peaked on April 21

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REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
112,471
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 7, 2020

727 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 938
> Peaked on April 21

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REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
112,101
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 6, 2020

1,201 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 976
> Peaked on April 21

image_thumb5
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
111,374
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
Michigan DNDs spike; MI moves ahead of IL

click to enlarge table
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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Great moments in junk science…

June 5, 2020

A couple of weeks ago, The Lancet — “a prestigious U.K. medical journal” — published a bombshell study on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).

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In a nutshell, the study claimed that Covid-19 patients given HCQ cocktails (HCQ plus an antibiotic such as azithromycin) had their risk of ventricular arrhythmias increase fivefold. Source

Based on the report, Eric Topol, director the Scripps Research Institute and a cardiologist, noted “It’s no longer that hydroxychloroquine has no sign of efficacy, it  is now associated with an increase in mortality.”

Whoa, Nellie.

“Following the science”, the WHO put the brakes on a Fauci-pleasing double blind random clinical trial of HCQ’s efficacy … citing the increased heart risks that the study found.

France banned the use of HCQ on Covid patients.

CNN did an end zone dance: proof positive that President Trump is an idiot.

But, the proverbial worm has turned.

(more…)

June 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 5, 2020

1,031 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 977 1st time < 1,000
> Peaked on April 21

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REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
110,173
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….

June 4, 2020

Controversial topic, so we’ll stick to the numbers…

Everybody knows that Obama eased the racial divide … and that Trump is blowing the gap wide open

Right?

click graph to enlarge
image

Well, according to Gallup, that’s only partially right…

(more…)

June 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 4, 2020

1,083 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,005
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
109,142
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,005 = Current 7-day moving average

171,452 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

 

UPDATE: Almost half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

June 3, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and, rather than taking all-out action to contain the carnage, some states directed Covid patients back to nursing homes, inflaming the outbreak.

How bad has the carnage been?

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a survey  this week reporting 25,923 nursing home death tied to Covid-19 and a death rate of 2.7% (the ratio of deaths to  the number of nursing home residents).

But, …

  • CMS only surveyed federally regulated nursing homes … slightly more than 1/2 of the total number of nursing homes in the US
  • Only 80% of the surveyed nursing homes replied to the survey
  • The survey only asked for death after May 6 (huh?)
  • Other LTC (long-term-care) facilities — e.g. assisted living, veterans homes — were not surveyed.
  • Only That’s about 25% of all Covid-related deaths — a big number that comes with a couple of big “buts” — it didn’t cover long-term-care (LTC) facilities except for nursing homes, only 80% of nursing homes replied to the CMS survey … and the survey only asked about deaths after May 6 (huh?).

Bottom line: Bottom line: The CMS survey way understates the number of LTC deaths..

Red shading indicates nursing home hot spots
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USA total pegs the number of deaths at 40,600.

A WSJ tally of state data totals more than 42,000 Covid-19-associated deaths in long-term-care facilities.

And, the WSJ says that its count  “likely undercounts the full impact of the outbreak because of reporting lags and incomplete information from some states”.

How much is the undercount?

(more…)

June 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 3, 2020

1,134 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,062
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
108,059
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
380 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,062 = Current 7-day moving average

174,965 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 3: C-19 Key STATES Data

June 3, 2020

Total US Deaths = 108,059 327 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 46,221  43% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 84,281 78% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 139 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
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C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

June 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 2, 2020

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

730 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,017
> Peaked on April 21

111 NY+NJ+CT 15% of US Total

image_thumb2
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
106,925
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
391 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,014 = Current 7-day moving average

172,022 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Does “flattening the curve” really save lives?

June 1, 2020

… or, realistically, does it just postpone the inevitable?
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How many times have we heard: “Flattening the curve will save lives… maybe millions of them”?

Let’s hit the pause button and review the theoretical basics and what we’ve learned.

This is the conceptual drawing of the “flattening curve”  we’ve had flashed at us a zillion times.

image

Time is on the horizontal axis,; number of deaths(or cases) are on the vertical axis; the high humped curve is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with no mitigation; the shallow curve is is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with with mitigation; and the white dotted line is hospital capacity.

OK, let’s unpack the curve…

(more…)

June 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 1, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

638 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,073
> Peaked on April 21

195 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
106,195
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,078 = Current 7-day moving average

175,949 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39