Archive for June 17th, 2020

WSJ: The data are in …

June 17, 2020

Compelling for “group distancing”, not so much for shelter-in-place

According to a WSJ op-ed…

Four new analyses of actual results show how the initial projections overestimated the value of lockdowns.

Fortunately, economists no longer have to rely on inherently flawed projections. They can use real data.

In what might turn out to be the best paper on the economics of Covid-19, a team of economists from the University of California, Berkeley carefully evaluated empirical data on social distancing, shelter-in-place orders, and lives saved.

And, here’s what the real data is saying…


June 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 17, 2020

849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 711
> Peaked on April 21



Cumulative Deaths 
119,132 Worldometer
195,935 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
759 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4


Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
TX (46) GA (35) NC (29) AZ (25)