Archive for June 3rd, 2020

UPDATE: Almost half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

June 3, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and, rather than taking all-out action to contain the carnage, some states directed Covid patients back to nursing homes, inflaming the outbreak.

How bad has the carnage been?

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a survey  this week reporting 25,923 nursing home death tied to Covid-19 and a death rate of 2.7% (the ratio of deaths to  the number of nursing home residents).

But, …

  • CMS only surveyed federally regulated nursing homes … slightly more than 1/2 of the total number of nursing homes in the US
  • Only 80% of the surveyed nursing homes replied to the survey
  • The survey only asked for death after May 6 (huh?)
  • Other LTC (long-term-care) facilities — e.g. assisted living, veterans homes — were not surveyed.
  • Only That’s about 25% of all Covid-related deaths — a big number that comes with a couple of big “buts” — it didn’t cover long-term-care (LTC) facilities except for nursing homes, only 80% of nursing homes replied to the CMS survey … and the survey only asked about deaths after May 6 (huh?).

Bottom line: Bottom line: The CMS survey way understates the number of LTC deaths..

Red shading indicates nursing home hot spots

USA total pegs the number of deaths at 40,600.

A WSJ tally of state data totals more than 42,000 Covid-19-associated deaths in long-term-care facilities.

And, the WSJ says that its count  “likely undercounts the full impact of the outbreak because of reporting lags and incomplete information from some states”.

How much is the undercount?


June 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 3, 2020

1,134 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,062
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
380 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,062 = Current 7-day moving average

174,965 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 3: C-19 Key STATES Data

June 3, 2020

Total US Deaths = 108,059 327 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 46,221  43% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 84,281 78% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 139 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES