Archive for June 1st, 2020

Does “flattening the curve” really save lives?

June 1, 2020

… or, realistically, does it just postpone the inevitable?

How many times have we heard: “Flattening the curve will save lives… maybe millions of them”?

Let’s hit the pause button and review the theoretical basics and what we’ve learned.

This is the conceptual drawing of the “flattening curve”  we’ve had flashed at us a zillion times.


Time is on the horizontal axis,; number of deaths(or cases) are on the vertical axis; the high humped curve is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with no mitigation; the shallow curve is is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with with mitigation; and the white dotted line is hospital capacity.

OK, let’s unpack the curve…


June 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 1, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

638 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,073
> Peaked on April 21

195 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,078 = Current 7-day moving average

175,949 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39