Archive for May, 2020

May 31: Key NATIONAL Data

May 31, 2020

1,015 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,131
> Peaked on April 21

223 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image_thumb2
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
105,557
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
400 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,131 = Current 7-day moving average

180,203 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

What do American cheese, cereal and golf have in common?

May 30, 2020

Hint: The coronaviris is changing consumer behavior
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Let’s start with a confession…

Several years ago — Oct. 2006 to be precise –our family travelled to Hawaii for a friend’s wedding.

As luck would have it, an earthquake hit — and, the Oahu power grids was shut down. With no electricity, hotels started emptying their refrigerators, piling food in the conference rooms and inviting guests to 24-hour all-you-can-eat buffet.

I made a dash to one specific table on which was piled the biggest hill of American cheese I’d ever seen.

image

I thought I had died and gone to heaven.

You see, as my family knows,  American cheese is one of my favorite foods.  Not just favorite cheese — favorite food.

I’m in what marketers call a micro-niche.

(more…)

May 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 30, 2020

1,208 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,168
> Peaked on April 21

320 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
104,542
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
403 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,168 = Current 7-day moving average

183,966 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 30: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 30, 2020

Total US Deaths = 104,542 317 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,424  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,961 78% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 132 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

I made the same mistake that Gov. Cuomo is making …

May 29, 2020

… but, in my defense, I was only 9 years old at the time.
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Flashback many years to my earliest little league baseball days.

1962 Ken & John - Little League

In our first game, the coach told us that — just like in the big leagues — he’d be  flashing secret signs to us when we were batting:

If he touched his cap, the sign meant “take the next pitch” … don’t swing at it.

If he brushed his chest, it meant “swing away”.

Simple enough…

Here’s what happened…

(more…)

May 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 29, 2020

1,227 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,202
> Peaked on April 21

255 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
103,334
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
414 = Implied Daily New Deaths average until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,227 = Current 7-day moving average

188,000 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 29: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 29, 2020

Total US Deaths = 103,334 313 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,104  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,200 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 511 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 129 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
PA up to #4 surpassing MICH

click chart to enlarge
image

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

 

I tested negative, so I’m not infected, right?

May 28, 2020

Yesterday, we reached into our toolkit and pulled out behavioral economics and Bayesian Inference.

Our big conclusion in that post was that if C-19 tests are 90% accurate and 5% of the people in our reference group are walking around infected, then roughly 2/3’s of all people who get positive test results are not infected … they’re so-called false positives.

Now, let’s change one of our assumptions.

In the prior post, we assumed that we were asymptomatic, have been sheltering-in-place (i.e. minimal social contacts outside of our homes) and don’t work in a COVID-prevalent environment … and we used 5% as our base rate (of virus prevalence among our reference group).

Now, let’s assume that the reference group we’re working with is elderly, has a comorbid medical history of respiratory and heart problems and is experiencing COVID-like symptoms (high fever, persistent cough), have had contact with an infected person.  That’s essentially the only group that initially qualified for coronavirus testing.  Lets, assume that 75% of the people in that reference group are, in fact, infected with the virus.

Here’s the Bayesian results chart would look like:

image

The question: what is the likelihood that the people who fit this profile are correctly diagnosed as having the virus (or not)?

(more…)

May 28: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 28, 2020

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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1,482 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,225
> Peaked on April 21

349 NY+NJ+CT 24% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
102,107
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 28, 2020

Total US Deaths = 102,107 3309 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 80,429 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 523 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 123 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

If I test positive for COVID, am I infected?

May 27, 2020

The answer may surprise you, and it has big implications for test & trace.
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In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).

OK, let’s up our game a notch or two and throw some math & economics at the problem.

==============

I’m a fan of “Freakonomics” … the popular call sign for a discipline called Behavioral Economics … the study of the rationality that underlies many seemingly irrational decisions that people sometimes make.

And, in my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).

Today, we’ll connect Freakonomics and Bayesian Inference and apply them to the COVID testing situation…

(more…)

May 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 27, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths.  This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

820 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,234
> Peaked on April 21

226 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
100,625
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 27: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 27, 2020

Total US Deaths = 100,625 305 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 79,430 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 120 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaced Indiana in the Top 12 on May 25

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 26, 2020

Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============

Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19  related deaths in the U.S. so far.

image

Keep in mind that “COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”

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From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.

So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.

image

The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.

Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots: NY, NJ, CT

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More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?

(more…)

May 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 26, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths.  This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

1,112 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,261
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
99,805
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 99,805 302 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,274  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 78,972 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 513 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 118 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaces Indiana in the Top 12

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Our slant on last week’s COVID news…

May 25, 2020

Here are links … just in case you missed any posts
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Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39
Which are the ones to watch?

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.
It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…
Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation

Our slant on the prior week’s COVID-19 news … week of May 10

On this Memorial Day …

May 25, 2020

 Remember all who gave their lives on our behalf
   … and thank those who are serving us now. 

image

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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May 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 25, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

613 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,199
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
44,063 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

  • The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
  • Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
  • Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
  • Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

image

Here’s another cut at the data…

(more…)

May 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 24, 2020

1,043 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,224
> Peaked on April 21

271 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
43,954 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May24: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 24, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 98,693 299 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,954  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 78,218 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 508 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 116 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.

May 23, 2020

It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.
==============

After months of telling us that the coronavirus lives on door knobs, countertops, packages and whatever … and that we need to disinfect all surfaces:

The CDC has issued a new directive that informs us that “The virus spreads easily between people, but not by touching surfaces, objects or animals

image

On it’s own, this course reversal doesn’t trouble me.

Yeah, people have become more germophobic … and, store shelves have been emptied as consumers stocked up on disinfectants.

That’s OK. It’s good hygiene and consumers will eventually work off their overstock.

My issue: This course reversal fits a bigger, problematic pattern.

(more…)

May 23: Key NATIONAL Data

May 23, 2020

1,277 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,305

327 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image_thumb4

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
97,640
Worldometer
43,683 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key STATES Data

May 23, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 97,640 296 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,683  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 77,488 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 504 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 114 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 22, 2020

1,445 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,350

339 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
96,363
Worldometer
43,356 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 22, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 96,363 297 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,356  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 76,588 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 498 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 111 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

 

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

May 21, 2020

Quick quiz: If you wanted to get tested for COVID-19, how would go about getting a test? What are your odds of actually getting tested?
==============

The Washington Post ran an obvious-became-evident exposé:  “As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test.”

These days, COVID testing capacity is said to be exceeding demand in some (many?) locales.

image

So, why aren’t people rushing to get tested?

(more…)

May 21: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 21, 2020

1,385 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,392

381 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
94,918
Worldometer
43,092 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 21: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 21, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 94,918 288 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,092  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 75,699 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 492 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 109 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

May 20, 2020

Yesterday, I gave readers a gut-check question:

If an elderly loved one was hospitalized with COVID, would you advise them to try the HCQ-combo, or tell them avoid it like the plague?

I got an interesting challenge question from a reader:

Prof. Homa, My gut question for you, with all the hypothesis and analysis, are you comfortable taking the combination as a preventive measure like Mr. President is doing?

image

It’s a good question. One that made me think harder about the HCQ issue.

Here’s my answer…

(more…)

May 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 20, 2020

1,548 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,444

334 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
93,533
Worldometer
42,711 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 20: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 20, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 93,553 283 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,711  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 74,759 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 486 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 107 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image_thumb[2]

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

May 19, 2020

Oh yeah, and “Irresponsible” Trump is taking it.
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Remember hydroxychloroquine?

It’s what the MSM likes to refer to as “an anti-malarial drug that is unproven as beneficial treating Covid-19 patients.”

It had kinda fallen off the radar, but it’s back.

President Trump caused a stir yesterday when he casually mentioned that he started taking HCQ as a preventative medicine.

The gathered reporters gasped: “Irresponsible!”

image

Before getting judgmental,  consider these underreported promising developments …

(more…)

May 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 19, 2020

1,007 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

278 NY+NJ+CT 32% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
91,985
Worldometer
42,377 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 19: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 19, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 91,985  279 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,377  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 73,375 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 479 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 104 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…

May 18, 2020

Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation
=============
 

The spread of COVID-19 has been extremely concentrated in a small number of states — and among a small number of counties within all states.

To date, 10 states accounted for nearly 75% of all deaths (but only 52% of the population).

Together, New York and New Jersey (9% of the U.S. population) alone account for 44% of total COVID-19 deaths.

image

And, the  COVID-19 impact is even more concentrated than the state-level data indicate…

(more…)

May-18 Key NATIONAL Data

May 18, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

865 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

366 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

image_thumb2

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,975
Worldometer
42,099 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 18: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 18, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,978  276 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,099  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,963 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 474 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 102 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

George Carlin: How to build a strong immune system.

May 17, 2020

WARNING: Adult content – profanity-laced, politically-incorrect, totally insensitive to the current COVID situation and likely to offend practically everyone.  Do not play in earshot of children, co-workers or sensitive adults. Hit delete now if you self-classify in that latter group.

In other word, this is classic George Carlin.

His prescription for building a strong immune system to battle germ attacks is a bit contrary to current conventional wisdom and CDC guidance.

click to view (if you dare <= you’ve been warned!)
image

Our slant on last week’s COVID-19 news

May 17, 2020

Just in case you might have missed
=============

Time to catch up on your HomaFiles reading:

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”
… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus…

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”
More deaths than expected … daily deaths on a plateau.

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 17, 2020

1,606 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,439

336 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,113
Worldometer
41,733 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 17: C-19 STATES Data

May 17, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,113  273 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,733  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,286 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 470 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 101 Deaths/Million
    Bottom 39 Trend 4.2% > Top 12 1.2%

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 16, 2020

1,595 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,413

418 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
88,507
Worldometer
41,009 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 16: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 16, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 88,507  268 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,009  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 71,034 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 462 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 99Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,911  +45

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”

May 15, 2020

… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.
==============

Let, start at the beginning…

The “courageous” whistleblower walked into the hearing flanked by the same uber-partisan lawyers who represented Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her failed attempt to torch Bret Kavanaugh.

image

I guess the signaling was supposed to be hash-tag “I Believe Him” but, at least for me, it signaled “Here We Go Again”

OK, that may be partisan-petty, so let’s get specific …

(more…)

May 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 15, 2020

1,740 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,426

449 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
86,912
Worldometer
40,591 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 15: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 15, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 86,912  263 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 40,591  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 69,935 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 455 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 96 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,866  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

May 14, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and then taking all-out action to contain the carnage among the most vulnerable subset of the population.

How bad has the carnage been?

According to an analysis compiled by the CTUP(The Committee to Unleash Prosperity):

Over half of C-19 deaths have befallen residents of nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities … resulting in the death of over 2% of of the population in those facilities.

image
See the statistical  note at the end of this post.

The percentage of reported long-term care (LTC) deaths ranges from a low of 20% in Nevada to over 80% in Minnesota.

Note: For convenience, we lump nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities into a single category that we refer to as “LTC”

The reported death rate (ratio of LTC deaths to the LTC population) is below 1/2% in about 1/2 of reporting states, but ranges as a high as 11.4% in New Jersey.

Here’s more state-by-state detail…

(more…)

May 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 14, 2020

1,747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,482 
> 3-day average 1,462

385 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
84,172
Worldometer
40,142  NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 84,059

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths