Archive for May 26th, 2020

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 26, 2020

Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
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Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19  related deaths in the U.S. so far.

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Keep in mind that “COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”

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From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.

So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.

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The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.

Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots: NY, NJ, CT

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More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?

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May 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 26, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths.  This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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1,112 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,261
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

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Cumulative Deaths 
99,805
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18
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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 99,805 302 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,274  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 78,972 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 513 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 118 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaces Indiana in the Top 12

click chart to enlarge 
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 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES