Archive for May 10th, 2020

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”

May 10, 2020

More deaths than expected … new deaths on a plateau.
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Dr. Scott Gottleib is a former head of the FDA.

My view: He usually makes a lot of sense, so I listen to him.

In a WSJ columns, Gottleib observes:

Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill.

Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread.

But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.

And, there’s more to the story…

(more…)

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 10, 2020

Whoa, Nellie …
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According to the Washington Post

During a task force meeting this week, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx and Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC:

Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data.

They worried (that he CDC system) was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent.

There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx said.

The flare-up came two days after it was reported that an internal government model, based on data from the CDC (via Johns Hopkins), projected the daily death count would rise to 3,000 by the end of May.

Birx said in a statement:

Mortality is slowly declining each day.

To keep with this trend, it is essential that seniors and those with comorbidities shelter in place and that .

The Post also reports:

Whereas initially the task force found itself scrambling to deploy a whack-a-mole management effort, dealing with regular crises as they emerged — from coronavirus-infected cruise ships to the urgent need for ventilators — the administration now intends to shift its focus to what is says is more strategic longer-term planning.

May 10: Key NATIONAL Data

May 10, 2020

1,422 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,798 
> 3-day trend 1,746

376 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

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See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
80,037
Worldometer
38,821  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 10: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 10, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,821  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,112 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 423 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 85 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,614  +54

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?