Archive for May 6th, 2020

Except for timing, the new IHME forecast isn’t as shocking as it seems…

May 6, 2020

In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4)  — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.

Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.


And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.

The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.

Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.


May 6: C-19 NATIONAL Data

May 6, 2020

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED

2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346  Pennsylvania         


See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
33,573  NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 6: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 6, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 36,128  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • PA +346   NJ +341   IL +176   MA +122
  • Top 12 Total = 59,232 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 385 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 74 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,390  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12


 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?