Archive for May 28th, 2020

I tested negative, so I’m not infected, right?

May 28, 2020

Yesterday, we reached into our toolkit and pulled out behavioral economics and Bayesian Inference.

Our big conclusion in that post was that if C-19 tests are 90% accurate and 5% of the people in our reference group are walking around infected, then roughly 2/3’s of all people who get positive test results are not infected … they’re so-called false positives.

Now, let’s change one of our assumptions.

In the prior post, we assumed that we were asymptomatic, have been sheltering-in-place (i.e. minimal social contacts outside of our homes) and don’t work in a COVID-prevalent environment … and we used 5% as our base rate (of virus prevalence among our reference group).

Now, let’s assume that the reference group we’re working with is elderly, has a comorbid medical history of respiratory and heart problems and is experiencing COVID-like symptoms (high fever, persistent cough), have had contact with an infected person.  That’s essentially the only group that initially qualified for coronavirus testing.  Lets, assume that 75% of the people in that reference group are, in fact, infected with the virus.

Here’s the Bayesian results chart would look like:


The question: what is the likelihood that the people who fit this profile are correctly diagnosed as having the virus (or not)?


May 28: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 28, 2020

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?


1,482 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,225
> Peaked on April 21

349 NY+NJ+CT 24% of US Total


Cumulative Deaths 

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 28, 2020

Total US Deaths = 102,107 3309 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 80,429 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 523 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 123 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES