Archive for May 12th, 2020

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?

May 12, 2020

Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

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Finally, Gov. Cuomo has directed hospitals to ask new coronavirus patients for some demographic and behavioral information such as their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood.

Cuomo says the early results from this info-seeking initiative and the state’s antibody testing have provided  some confirming data and some “shocking” revelations, including:

  • 96% had an underlying health condition (a.k.a. comorbidity factors); new admissions were predominantly minority, predominantly older; 22% came from nursing homes.
  • 66% of NY’s new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis … only 17% were employed.
  • The majority of recently hospitalized coronavirus patients are people who say that they have followed the precaution of staying home.
  • Only 4% in New York City said they had been taking public transportation.
  • A low percentage of new hospitalizations were essential employees — nurses, doctors, transit workers, grocery store employees — who were getting sick at work.
  • Sources: WSJ   NY Daily News

Of course, these sample sizes are small and the results may or may not be projectably true.

The point is that “they” should have been recording this sort of information from the get-go.

The plan is to start asking a battery of questions when people are tested for the coronavirus (both diagnostic and antibody testing, I assume) and when they’re admitted to the hospital.

That’s fine, but I’ve got a better idea…

(more…)

May 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 12, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,008 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,696 
> 3-day average 1,060

309 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

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See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
81,795
Worldometer
39,352  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 80,378

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

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click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 12: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 12, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,352  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 66,388 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 432 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 87 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,683  +39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?