Archive for the ‘flattening the curve’ Category

What do New York and Sweden have in common?

August 20, 2020

Hint: Glance at the covid-19 death curves.

Let’s reprise the oft-cited “Flattening the Curve” concept one more time…


…. and, we presented data that strongly suggests (i.e. proves) that NY didn’t flatten the curve at all — it conformed to the “no mitigation curve” … while press-maligned Florida does seem to fit the flattening curve model.

For details, see A covid tale of two states


Now, let’s look at NY’s Cuomo-claimed “beautiful response” from still another angle


Does “flattening the curve” really save lives?

June 1, 2020

… or, realistically, does it just postpone the inevitable?

How many times have we heard: “Flattening the curve will save lives… maybe millions of them”?

Let’s hit the pause button and review the theoretical basics and what we’ve learned.

This is the conceptual drawing of the “flattening curve”  we’ve had flashed at us a zillion times.


Time is on the horizontal axis,; number of deaths(or cases) are on the vertical axis; the high humped curve is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with no mitigation; the shallow curve is is the number of deaths (or cases) each day with with mitigation; and the white dotted line is hospital capacity.

OK, let’s unpack the curve…