What do New York and Sweden have in common?

Hint: Glance at the covid-19 death curves.
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Let’s reprise the oft-cited “Flattening the Curve” concept one more time…

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…. and, we presented data that strongly suggests (i.e. proves) that NY didn’t flatten the curve at all — it conformed to the “no mitigation curve” … while press-maligned Florida does seem to fit the flattening curve model.

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For details, see A covid tale of two states

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Now, let’s look at NY’s Cuomo-claimed “beautiful response” from still another angle

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Below are the daily covid death curves for NY state and Sweden.

IMPORTANT GRAPHICAL NOTE: The scales are different.  Sweden’s numbers are magnified by 10 to highlight the commonality of the curves’ shapes.

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To my naked eye, those curves track a remarkably similar course.

How can that be?

Sweden (blue line) has been roundly criticized for its covid response.

Sweden did not close its schools.

Other than stopping gatherings of more than fifty people, the Swedish government left decisions of closing businesses, using masks, and social distancing to the Swedish people.

The government encouraged the use of masks and social distancing, but there were no requirements and there were no penalties for those who declined to follow the advice. Source

Sounds closest to “no mitigation”, right?

Cuomo took NY (the black line) in another direction:

On March 20, a full lockdown was implemented.

Nonessential businesses were ordered to close.

Workers in nonessential businesses were ordered to work only from home.

Pharmacies, grocery stores, liquor stores, and wine stores were deemed to be essential and allowed to remain open.

Restaurants and bars could only deliver to homes.

From March 25 to May 10, , nursing homes were  to accept patients positive for the covid-19 virus in transfer from hospitals

On May 10, this order was changed such that patients had to test negative for the virus before being transferred to nursing homes. Source

First, NY’s actual results hardly conform to the “flattening the curve” model.

For details, see About Cuomo’s “beautiful” response to the coronavirus

More important, the NY covid mortality rate stands at 1,692 per million … triple the rate in Sweden, where no lockdown was implemented.

How can that be?

We’ll offer up some hypotheses in a follow-up post.

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