He was for them before he was against them.
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You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.
In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.
In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.
One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate
I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.
Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…
The Homa Files 