Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

Raise your hand if you want to be in the placebo group…

April 7, 2020

We opted for a “doctor supervised off-label test” instead of a randomized control test. Here’s why.
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American Society of Hand Therapists (ASHT)

Dr. Fauci has consistently dissed the use of hydroxychloroquine because there hasn’t been a large-scale, double-blind control test proving its efficacy.

There are plenty of field reports, patient testimonials and doctors prescribing the drug “off-label” (or even using it themselves as a prophylactic).

But, Dr. Fauci advises that we all just chill for a year or so until the “proper” scientific testing is done.

That point-of-view hits close to home.

Here’s a very personal story…

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April 6: COVID-19 Tracker

April 6, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
9,620  Worldometer
9,648   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

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1,166 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model  Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16 

Dotted red line is 3-day moving average
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Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We are validity check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Data

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April 5: COVID-19 Tracker

April 5, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
8,454  Worldometer
8,503   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

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1,051 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   

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Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs has fallen out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. Starting today, we are validity checking the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and doing our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Data

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April 4 – COVID-19 Tracker

April 4, 2020

1,328 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   

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7,403 Cumulative U.S. Deaths  Worldometer 

NY = 3,218  43% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

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State-by-State Data

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April 3: COVID-19 Tracker

April 3, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

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963 Daily New Deaths Down Slightly  Worldometer   

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Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

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6,075 Cumulative U.S. Deaths    Worldometer   

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Projected U.S. Deaths  IHME Model

  • Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
  • NY = 16,261  17.5% of US Total

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State-by-State Data
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April 2: COVID-19 Tracker

April 2, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

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Daily New Deaths UP  Worldometer   

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Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths    Worldometer   

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Projected U.S. Deaths  IHME Model

  • Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
  • NY = 16,261  17.5% of US Total

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State-by-State Data
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April 1: COVID Tracker

April 1, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

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Daily New Deaths UP  Worldometer   

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Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,607 on April 16

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State-by-State Data

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