Archive for the ‘Decision Making’ Category
July 5, 2018
Interesting piece from the WSJ …
Psychology researchers have studied how people make decisions and concluded there are two basic styles.
“Maximizers” like to take their time and weigh a wide range of options—sometimes every possible one—before choosing.
“Satisficers” would rather be fast than thorough; they prefer to quickly choose the option that fills the minimum criteria (the word “satisfice” blends “satisfy” and “suffice”).
“Maximizers are people who want the very best.
Satisficers are people who want good enough,”
Take the quick test below to see if you’re a maximizer or satisficer…. and see what the implications are..
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Decision-making, Maximize - satidfice | Leave a Comment »
April 12, 2018
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | 1 Comment »
April 10, 2018
Here’s a classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | 1 Comment »
November 2, 2017
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
April 21, 2017
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
April 21, 2016
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
April 20, 2016
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
October 8, 2015
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
July 3, 2015
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
July 2, 2015
A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | Leave a Comment »
April 21, 2015
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
February 23, 2015
Interesting study on cognitive biases from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow …
Patients undergoing a painful medical procedure – think, colonoscopy without anesthesia – recorded their pain levels during the procedure on a range from no pain (zero) to excruciating (10).
Some of the procedures were short in duration … others were longer.
Below is the pain chart for 2 representative patients.
The patients were asked – after the fact—how painful the procedure was.
What’s your bet? Which patient claimed to have undergone the more painful procedure?
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel | Leave a Comment »
December 5, 2014
Interesting study on cognitive biases from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow …
Patients undergoing a painful medical procedure – think, colonoscopy without anesthesia – recorded their pain levels during the procedure on a range from no pain (zero) to excruciating (10).
Some of the procedures were short in duration … others were longer.
Below is the pain chart for 2 representative patients.
The patients were asked – after the fact—how painful the procedure was.
What’s your bet? Which patient claimed to have undergone the more painful procedure?
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel | Leave a Comment »
November 24, 2014
This came in this week in class … subject was “confirmation bias” … how people naturally lock onto beliefs and only seek or notice that aligns with their going-in position.
One of the antidotes is enlisting a so-called devil’s advocate” to keep things honest.
A what?
You know, we’ve all been there …
You’re in meetings pitching an idea when some jabrone pipes in:
“Let me play the role of devil’s advocate …”
He then blasts your idea with half-baked criticisms.
As you aggressively defend your cherished idea, he backs off:
“Hey man, I’m just playing devil’s advocate”.
“Say, what? You mean your just made up those cheap shots?”
I’ve been reading books on decision making this summer.
A couple have praised the use of so-called devil’s advocates to validate ideas and arguments.
Here’s what they’re talking about …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
November 10, 2014
A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | Leave a Comment »
October 28, 2014
interesting piece from the WSJ …
Psychology researchers have studied how people make decisions and concluded there are two basic styles.
“Maximizers” like to take their time and weigh a wide range of options—sometimes every possible one—before choosing.
“Satisficers” would rather be fast than thorough; they prefer to quickly choose the option that fills the minimum criteria (the word “satisfice” blends “satisfy” and “suffice”).
“Maximizers are people who want the very best.
Satisficers are people who want good enough,”
Take the quick test below to see if you’re a maximizer or satisficer…. and see what the implications are..
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Decision-making, Maximize - satidfice | Leave a Comment »
August 15, 2014
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
=====
In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
August 8, 2014
I know that Andy Grove of Intel says “only the paranoid survive”.
But, work relationships are sometimes corrupted by negative assumptions that take on a life all their own.
A jabrone speaks out against your idea in a meeting, and you naturally assume that he’s trying to sabotage your or embarrass you in front of the boss.
If this situation happens a couple of times, you might declare war and go on the offensive to neutralize or defeat him.
To interrupt this cycle, some organizational leaders urge their employees to “assume positive intent,”
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan, Psychology | Leave a Comment »
August 5, 2014
We’ve all been there …
We’re in meetings pitching an idea when some jabrone pipes in:
“Let me play the role of devil’s advocate …”
He then blasts your idea with half-baked criticisms.
As you aggressively defend your cherished idea, he backs off:
“Hey man, I’m just playing devil’s advocate”.
“Say, what? You mean your just made up those cheap shots?”
I’ve been reading books on decision making this summer.
A couple have praised the use of so-called devil’s advocates to validate ideas and arguments.
Here’s what they’re talking about …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
August 1, 2014
In Decisive, the authors (Heath Brothers) observe that people often approach problems from two radically different mindsets: “promotion” and “prevention”.
The mindset one adopts can bias the way solutions are considered and selected.
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Decision Making, Psychology | Leave a Comment »
July 31, 2014
A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow …
Here’s the situation:
A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.
When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.
$80 tickets are still available at the box office.
Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?
Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.
Let’s try another situation …
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | Leave a Comment »
July 23, 2014
Here’s a classic test of intuitive skills excepted from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow…
As you consider this question, please assume that Steve – the subject — was selected at random from a representative sample.
Steve has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail .”
* * * * *
Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel - Thinking Fast, Slow, Problem solving, Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow | 1 Comment »
July 22, 2014
Interesting study on cognitive biases from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow …
Patients undergoing a painful medical procedure – think, colonoscopy without anesthesia – recorded their pain levels during the procedure on a range from no pain (zero) to excruciating (10).
Some of the procedures were short in duration … others were longer.
Below is the pain chart for 2 representative patients.
The patients were asked – after the fact—how painful the procedure was.
What’s your bet? Which patient claimed to have undergone the more painful procedure?
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Kahneman, Daniel | Leave a Comment »
July 21, 2014
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
July 10, 2014
Interesting cut at measuring decision making effectiveness from Bain.
Bain says that:
One thing that sets great companies apart is the ability to make high-quality decisions.
But it isn’t just decision quality—the top performers also make those decisions quickly and execute them effectively. And they don’t spend too much or too little effort in the process.
Source: Bain Decide & Deliver
====
In other words, evaluate decision making along 4 dimensions:
(more…)
SHARE THIS POST WITH FRIENDS & FAMILY
Posted in Bain, Decision Making | Leave a Comment »
The Homa Files 