What do electricity, the EZ pass, and the 3-point line have in common ?

March 11, 2010

I often say that they make my list as the top 3 inventions ever …

You know all about the first two.  Here’s the story of the 3-pointer.

* * * * *

Excerpted from RCP Sports: Top 10 Biggest Rule Changes in Sports, 03.9.10

The three-pointer is arguably one of the most exciting parts of basketball.

It can quickly change a game’s momentum and makes the last minutes of every close game that much more exciting.

But years ago most people in power considered the three-pointer a gimmick.

The idea of the three-point field goal was first tested in a college game between Columbia and Fordham back in 1945.

The rule was used in the American Basketball League during its short lifespan starting in 1961, but became popular when it was used by the American Basketball Association (ABA), which was founded in 1967.

The three-point shot was believed to open up the game and spread the court in a league that had become dominated by big men and inside play.

The rule was not instituted in the NBA until the 1979-80 season, when it was used on a trial basis. One year later, the league adopted the rule permanently.

The NCAA didn’t officially establish the three-point field goal until 1986.

Several conferences had applied the rule in their own manner before, differing on the distance for the shot. The first to do so was the Southern Conference in the 1980-81 season.  At the time, Furman coach Eddie Holbrook summed up what most coaches thought with the inception of the rule, “It’s a coach’s nightmare and a spectator’s delight.”

Although the three-point line has changed distances over time in both the NBA and NCAA, no one would argue that it remains a spectator’s delight, and even most of the coaches have come around.

http://www.realclearsports.com/lists/biggest_rule_changes/three_point_field_goal.html?state=stop

For every voter who strongly favors ObamaCare, two are strongly opposed … here’s why.

March 11, 2010

Punchline: Most voters believe the current plan will harm the economy, cost more than projected, raise the cost of care, and lead to higher middle-class taxes.

image 
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-presobama-health.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/USObamaJobPresHealth.xml&choices=Disapprove,Approve&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B

* * * * *

Here’s Why

Excerpted from WSJ: Why Obama Can’t Move the Health-Care Numbers, March 9, 2010

One of the more amazing aspects of the health-care debate is how steady public opinion has remained. Despite repeated and intense sales efforts by the president and his allies in Congress, most Americans consistently oppose the plan that has become the centerpiece of this legislative season.

In 15 consecutive Rasmussen Reports polls conducted over the past four months, for every person who strongly favors it, two are strongly opposed.

The reason President Obama can’t move the numbers and build public support is because the fundamentals are stacked against him. Most voters believe the current plan will harm the economy, cost more than projected, raise the cost of care, and lead to higher middle-class taxes.

  • 57% of voters believe that passage of the legislation would hurt the economy, while only 25% believe it would help.
  • Voters think reducing spending is more important than reducing the deficit.
  • People simply don’t trust the official projections: 81% of voters say it’s likely the plan will end up costing more than projected.
  • 66% of voters believe passage of the president’s plan will lead to higher deficits
  • 78% say it’s at least somewhat likely to mean higher middle-class taxes.
  • Fifty-nine percent of voters say that the biggest problem with the health-care system is the cost: They want reform that will bring down the cost of care.
  • Only 17% now believe it will reduce the cost of care.
  • For most voters, the notion that you need to spend an additional trillion dollars doesn’t make sense. If the program is supposed to save money, why does it cost anything at all?
  • The overwhelming majority of voters have insurance coverage, and 76% rate their own coverage as good or excellent.
  • Half of these voters say it’s likely that if the congressional health bill becomes law, they would be forced to switch insurance coverage—a prospect hardly anyone ever relishes.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704784904575111993559174212.html

Where the healthcare reform battle has left us …

March 11, 2010

Note that the article is from the Washington Post, not WSJ or IBD.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Wash Post: Obama is Choosing Liberal Divisiveness, March 10, 2010

Whatever the legislative fate of health reform, the Democratic health reformers have

  • Divided Democrats while uniting Republicans,
  • Returned American politics to well-worn ideological ruts,
  • Employed legislative tactics that smack of corruption,
  • Squandered the president’s public standing,
  • Lowered public regard for Congress,
  • Sucked the oxygen from other agenda items,
  • Re-engaged the abortion battle,
  • Produced freaks and prodigies of nature such as a Republican senator from Massachusetts,
  • Raised questions about the continued governability of America,
  • Caused the White House chief of staff to distance himself from the president’s ambitions.

Quite a list of accomplishments.

* * * * *
Early on Obama rejected the one, genuinely bipartisan health reform proposal — made by Sens. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Bob Bennett, R-Utah — that would have ended employer-based insurance and given individuals a deduction to buy their own coverage from a menu of private insurance options.

Wyden has turned out to be the ignored prophet of the health debate:

“If you … just pound it through on a partisan vote, you will have people practically as soon as the ink is dry looking to have it repealed.”

Full article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/03/10/obama_is_choosing_liberal_divisiveness.html

Sen Durbin overlooked a few points in his defense of trial lawyers and junk lawsuits …

March 10, 2010

During the ObamaCare “Summit Meeting”, Senator Dick Durbin (IL), himself a former medical malpractice lawyer, gave a spirited rebuttal to folks arguing that any cost-cutting health reform must address junk lawsuits.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKKPgVkfzw4&feature=youtube_gdata

Durbin’s argument revolved around 3 points:

1. Even without new laws capping damages, medical malpractice lawsuits are dropping off dramatically.

He cited a study by the non-profit Kaiser Foundation saying that the number of paid medical malpractice claims has declined by 50 percent over the last two decades.

And between 2003 and 2008, the total amount paid out for medical malpractice claims – across the entire United States – was cut in half, from $8 billion to $4 billion. 

* * * * *

2. The Journal of the American Medical Association says that 100,000 deaths are caused by medical malpractice annually.

Medical malpractice reform will make doctors feel a little bit more insulated from legal liability for their actions and, therefore, will make them a little bit more careless.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the extra careless by doctors will result in additional 4,800 medical malpractice deaths a year

* * * * *

3. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Republican plan for medical malpractice reform will save $5.4 billion dollars a year … which is inconsequential in the context of a health care budget that is $2.5 trillion.

http://www.bostonpersonalinjurylawyerblog.com/2010/02/sen-durbin-demolishes-republic.html 

* * * * *

What Durbin didn’t say

A Massachusetts Medical Society study showed that “the plague of defensive medicine” leads to about 25 percent of doctor referrals, tests and procedures being done for no medical reason. [Ken’s calc: 25% times $2.5 trillion = $625 billion]
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/03/05/the_health_care_bill_is_a_failure.html

* * *
A study published in the November 2009 issue of the Journal of Law & Economics showed that a rise in the cost of medical liability insurance led to more reductions of hours of medical service supplied by older doctors than among younger doctors.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/03/06/alice_in_medical_care_part_iv_104664.html

* * *

In other words, experienced doctors are leaving the profession, rather than putting up with the hassles and risks, and letting debt-burdened younger docs take over
* * * * *

Ken’s Take: No health care reform can be taken seriously as a cost-cutting initiative unless junk lawsuits are controlled … probably by setting up medical tribunals that protect patient rights while adding sanity to the payouts.

Dear Secretary Sebelius … Your’s truly, Anthem Blue Cross / Blue Shield of California

March 10, 2010

Anthem BC /BS has provided ObamaCare supporters with a talking point: profit-mongering health insurance companies are arbitrarily jacking up premiums to unprecedented and unconscionable levels.  ObamaCare will put a stop to that pronto.

Further the President said that insurance execs can’t come up with any reasonable explanation for the rate changes.

Well, Anthem has penned a letter to Sec. Sebelius explaining the rate changes (link to letter is below)

While the letter is a bit long-winded, here are the key points … which, incidentally, make sense to me.

  • In 2009, Anthem’s average premium increase was 2%.
  • But the average claims per member — the underlying cost of serving subscribers — increased by 8% in 2009.
  • So, Anthem’s individual health insurance business in California lost money in 2009.
  • An independent actuarial firm concluded that Anthem’s proposed 2010 rates were actuarially sound, reflecting the expected medical costs associated with the membership in these plans.
  • Anthem’s proposed 2010 rates satisfy or exceed the medical loss ratio required by California law i.e. the underlying medical costs are driving the rates
  • The 39% increase reported in the media is an isolated case; some premiums went down by as much as 20%.
  • After these premium changes are enacted, the average individual market premium in California  will still be about 1/2 the average individual market premium in New York.

Full letter:
http://www.wellpoint.com/pdf/SebeliusLetter02112010.pdf

Thanks to DNF  for feeding the lead.

Five forms of risk breed our insecurity …

March 10, 2010

Minds are insecure for many reasons. One reason is perceived risk in doing something as basic as making a purchase.

Behavioral scientists say that there are five forms of perceived risk:

  1. Monetary risk. There’s a chance that I could lose money on this.
  2. Functional risk. Maybe it won’t work, or maybe it won’t do what it’s supposed to do.
  3. Physical risk. It looks a little dangerous. I could get hurt.
  4. Social risk. I wonder what my friends will think if I buy this.
  5. Psychological risk. I might feel guilty or irresponsible if I buy this.

Source:  Repositioning: Marketing in an Era of Competition, Change, and Crisis by Jack Trout with Steve Rivkin, 2010

“But my product is a commodity” … Stop whining, start repositioning

March 10, 2010

How can you reposition your own brand when the entire product category is seen as a commodity? Here are five successful strategies:

  • Identify. Ordinary bananas became better bananas when a small Chiquita label was added to the fruit. Dole did the same for pineapple, and Foxy did the same for lettuce. Of course, you then have to communicate why people should look for these labels.
  • Personify. The Green Giant character became the difference in a family of vegetables in many forms. Frank Perdue became the tough man behind the tender chicken
  • Create a new generic. Tyson wanted to sell miniature chickens, which doesn’t sound very appealing. So it introduced Cornish game hens.
  • Change the name. Sometimes your original name works against you. For example, no one wanted to eat a Chinese gooseberry until the name was changed to kiwi fruit
  • Reposition the category. Sales of pork increased when its producers repositioned it as “the other white meat.”

Source:  Repositioning: Marketing in an Era of Competition, Change, and Crisis by Jack Trout with Steve Rivkin, 2010

The GOP strategy: revenge of the nerds ?

March 10, 2010

Excerpted from RCP: Revenge of the GOP Nerd, March 4, 2010

For Republicans, the nerd might not be the new jock. But the GOP jocks are increasingly letting the nerds in on the party.

Increasingly, nerds appear to be the life of the party. The GOP party, that is.

Paul Ryan, the top Republican on the Budget Committee, used his nerd skills last week to “unpack” the Senate health care bill numbers. Some imagined Ryan as a future vice president.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, a potential presidential candidate, previously served as the director of the Office of Management and Budget. It’s a job only a nerd could love.

Perhaps in this era of the professorial president, Republicans decided to put forward their wonkish rock stars.

It helps to have number crunchers on the main stage when it’s all about the economy.

It’s enough to make the Prof-in-Chief jealous.

Full article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/03/04/revenge_of_the_gop_nerd__104647.html

Heads up: The capital gains hurt on the horizon … and the giant sucking sound from the stock market.

March 9, 2010

The unions cut a special behind-closed-doors deal with the President to delay the tax on Cadillac heath insurance plans until 2018.  Though Obama proposes eliminating the Cornhusker kickback, he plans to keep his word to the SEIU on this break.

To compensate for the lost tax revenue, Obama proposes extending Medicare “payroll taxes” to unearned income — i.e. interest, dividends and capital gains. 

That’s a 2.9% increase in capital gains taxes.

Keeping in mind that the Bush tax rates expire on Dec 31, the capital gains tax rate will go from 15% to 22.9% — a 52.7% increase !

As the simple example below shows, after-tax gains get crushed — overnight — when the new rates take effect.

Note: Potentially making matters worse, I expect the Medicare tax on unearned income to become effective on the date Obama signs the bill … or worse, I wouldn’t be surprised if Team Obama made the tax hike retroactive to Jan. 1, 2010. The sucking sound you’ll hear is the stock market losing steam …

image

Paul Krugman: "Don’t believe what’s in my textbook" … huh ?

March 9, 2010

OK Krugman didn’t actually say those words, but he did deliver the message.

Great ‘catch’ by WSJ writer James Taranto who hoists economist Paul Krugman  by his own pitards …

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Mirror, Mirror, By JAMES TARANTO, March 5, 2010

Former Enron adviser Paul Krugman takes note in his New York Times column of what the calls “the incredible gap that has opened up between the parties”:

Today, Democrats and Republicans live in different universes, both intellectually and morally.
“What Democrats believe,” he says “is what textbook economics says”

But that’s not how Republicans see it.

GOPers say unemployment relief “doesn’t create new jobs. In fact, if anything, continuing to pay people unemployment compensation is a disincentive for them to seek new work.”

Krugman scoffs: “To me, that’s a bizarre point of view — but then, I don’t live in their universe.”

What does textbook economics have to say about this question? Here is a passage from a textbook called “Macroeconomics”:

Public policy designed to help workers who lose their jobs can lead to structural unemployment as an unintended side effect. . . . In other countries, particularly in Europe, benefits are more generous and last longer. The drawback to this generosity is that it reduces a worker’s incentive to quickly find a new job. Generous unemployment benefits in some European countries are widely believed to be one of the main causes of “Eurosclerosis,” the persistent high unemployment that affects a number of European countries.

So it turns out that what Krugman calls Republicans “bizarre point of view” is, in fact, textbook economics.

By the way, the authors of that textbook are Paul Krugman and Robin Wells. Miss Wells is also known as Mrs. Paul Krugman.

It seems Krugman himself lives in two different universes — the universe of the academic economist and the universe of the bitter partisan columnist.

OK, so he was off by $1 trillion (twice) … don’t get bogged down in the (flakey) numbers..

March 9, 2010

Liberal pundits tout President Obama’s intellect and grasp of “the details”. 

May be true, but a couple of recent trillion dollar “gaps” gotta make objective observers scratch their heads.

Either he doesn’t know, he’s sloppy, or he’s fibbing.  Pick one.

* * * * *

First, the CBO says that the national debt will rise by at least $1.2 trillion more than Obama’s White House projects.  Oops.

Excerpted from 247WallSt.com: Mr. Obama’s Missing $1 Trillion,  March 8, 2010 at 5:22 am

The Congressional Budget Office said the national debt will be rise by $9.8 trillion by 2020. The figure is $1.2 trillion higher than White House estimates.

The CBO estimates are lower than the President’s on both the receipt and expense sides of the ledger.

The differences between the White House estimates and those of the CBO are profound when the ten years are added up.

US debt held by the public is 67% of GDP under the President’s forecast, but 90% when the CBO estimates are used as the basis of calculations.

The President’s projections are obviously optimistic. If he is wrong, the price will be high enough that America may not be able to meet its debt obligations with any ease by the end of the decade. That could mean default on US sovereign debt, or austerity  greater than the American public has seen in decades.

http://247wallst.com/2010/03/08/mr-obamas-missing-1-trillion/

* * * * *

Then yesterday, the President pitched his health care plan to nodding supporters as “reducing most people’s premiums and bringing down our deficit by up to $1 trillion dollars over the next decade”.  Oops, again.  Off by about $1 trillion … 

Excerpted from White House Blog: Obama Overstates Health Care Savings by $868 Billion, March 8, 2010

In what the White House calls the final push for health care reform, President Obama said: “Our cost-cutting measures mirror most of the proposals in the current Senate bill, which reduces most people’s premiums and brings down our deficit by up to $1 trillion dollars over the next decade because we’re spending our health care dollars more wisely,”

The President was so proud of these cost-saving numbers in the latest version of health care reform, he delved into a bit of Washington-speak to back them up.

“Those aren’t my numbers,” President Obama said to the rising applause of the estimated 1,300 in attendance. “They are the savings determined by the Congressional Budget Office, which is the nonpartisan, independent referee of Congress for what things cost.”

That part is true. The budget office does keep score of what things cost. More precisely, the budget office projects what things cost or save over a given period of time.

But the budget office did not say the Senate health care bill would save $1 trillion over the next decade. Not even close.

It estimated the bill’s tax hikes and MediCare cuts would exceed new spending by $132 billion from 2010 to 2019, leaving President Obama’s “next decade” estimate $868 billion short. [Or, more than $1 trillion if you add back the so-called MediCare “doctor’s fix”.]

That’s some rounding error.

When contacted, a White House official said the President  meant to say the Senate bill would save $1 trillion in its second decade.

But, the CBO has said “Projections for years beyond 2019…would not be meaningful because the uncertainties involved are simply too great.”

http://whitehouse.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/03/08/obama-overstates-health-care-savings-by-868-billion/

Healthcare: Pay for quality, not quantity … now, how exactly is that going to work?

March 9, 2010

On the Sunday talk shows, e of Team Obama’s mantras is that under government-run healthcare, payments to doctors will be made based on quality (outcomes) rather than the quantity of procedures being done.

Nice philosophically, but how to make it happen ?

Couple of observations:

  • Quality over quantity should be easier in education than healthcare since students can be tested for progress.  But, virtually all merit pay programs for teachers (i.e. outcome-based) have been rejected out of hand or fail.  But, they’ll work in healthcare … hmmm.
  • A common method for controlling output quality is to control input quality.  In healthcare, that means rejecting the toughest cases and treating only the sure winners.  For example, when I first investigated corrective eye surgery, the docs rejected me.  My eyes were too bad, and they wanted to tout the percentage of patients that they got to 20/20.
  • It’s argued that a key to controlling quality is to make primary care physicians the coordinators of all medical services. That’s silly because:

    (1) there is a shortage of primary care docs (evidence: how quickly can you get an appointment when you’re sick? how about an appointment outside the 9 to 5 work day window?);

    (2) been there, tried that – in the past, most plans required that a patient see a primary care doc to get a referral to a specialist – the referral was almost always given – net impact: a step was added to the process

  • The Mayo Clinic  — always cited as the model of outcome based systems — has stopped accepting Medicare in its Arizona facilities.  Hmmm. Guess it didn’t drive costs down low enough …

I guess it’s better to bum’s rush through legislation than to give it serious thought.  Disappointing.

Swelling ranks of Federal government employees owe $3 billion in unpaid taxes … ah, give ’em a break.

March 8, 2010

There were 3 related stories last week that have to make you scratch your head … or scream.

First, the monthly BLS jobs report indicated that 36,000 more jobs were lost (“good news” according to Harry Reid) … job losses in the private sector were offset by more jobs added in government. The federal government now spends about $125 billion annually on compensation for about 2 million civilian employees.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Second, USA Today reported that Federal employees earn higher average salaries than private-sector workers in more than eight out of 10 occupations and that federal workers earned an average salary of $67,691 in 2008 for occupations that exist both in government and the private sector. The average pay for the same mix of jobs in the private sector was $60,046 — a difference of almost 13%. That doesn’t include the value of health, pension and other benefits, which averaged $40,785 per federal employee in 2008 vs. $9,882 per private worker. So, the total of comp plus benefits is $108,476 for a Federal employee, $69,928 for a private sector grunt — a difference of over 55%.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm

Now, the coup de grace: According to Internal Revenue Service documents, 276,300 federal employees and retirees owe $3,042,200,000 in back taxes. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (UT) introduced a bill to collect “seriously delinquent” taxes from federal employees and congressional staffers. The amendment was voted down, ostensibly because it would “overburden the Office of Personnel Management, which would be responsible for administering the provision”. And, oh yeah, government employees’ unions lobbied against the changes.

Keep reading for details …

* * * * *

Provision to fire tax-delinquent federal employees pulled

A legislative compromise that would have allowed agencies to fire tax-delinquent federal employees fell apart on Thursday.

An amendment to the 2009 Contracting and Tax Accountability Act would have targeted “seriously delinquent” federal employees and congressional staffers.

Democrats raised concerns about whether the amendment would overburden the Office of Personnel Management, which would be responsible for administering the provision.

Govexec.com, March 4, 2010
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0310/030410rb1.htm

* * * * *

Feds owe Uncle Sam $3B in unpaid taxes

At a time when the White House is projecting the largest deficit in the nation’s history, Uncle Sam is trying to recover billions of dollars in unpaid taxes from its own employees.

Federal workers owe more than $3 billion in income taxes they failed to pay in 2008. According to Internal Revenue Service documents, 276,300 federal employees and retirees owe $3,042,200,000.

The agency with the most tax scofflaws is the U.S. Postal Service, with 28,913 employees who owe $297,933,756.

“We urge our employees to comply with all tax laws and are encouraged that many who have been delinquent have agreed to payment plan with the IRS,” USPS spokesperson Mark Saunders said.

“We remind our employees of this responsibility as part of our mandatory annual ethics training.”

Notable agencies on the list:

Executive Office of the President (includes the White House): 50 employees owe $812,917;

U.S. Senate: 231 employees owe $2,469,026;

U.S. House of Representatives: 447 employees owe $5,809,631;

Wtop.com, December 14, 2009
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=428&sid=1838232

NY Times: “So Much for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs”

March 8, 2010

You read that right.  Even the NY Times has noticed that the administration’s high emphasis on jobs & unemployment had the the lifespan of a tsetse fly.  One calendar week, to be exact — then back to spend, spend, spend — and, oh yeah, health care.

* * * *

Excerpted from NY Times:So Much for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs,  March 5, 2010

The job market may be hitting bottom, but it seems likely to remain mired there.

And despite the insistence that their top three priorities are jobs, jobs, jobs, Congress and the Obama administration aren’t doing enough to create them.

With the latest monthly tally, 8.4 million jobs have been lost since the recession began in December 2007. Another 2.7 million jobs needed to absorb new workers were never created, leaving the economy bereft of 11.1 million jobs. [Ken’s note:  not counting another 10 million or so who are underemployed.]

To keep up with a growing work force, filling the hole would require more than 400,000 new jobs a month for three years — wildly in excess of even the most optimistic projections.

Employers are unlikely to make new hires until they restore current workers to full time. In the private sector, just restoring hours cut during the recession will be like adding 2.8 million jobs, without a single hire.

Over the next several months, the economy will get a temporary job boost from the census, which will hire some one million temporary workers.

The danger is that with stopgap measures boosting the headline job numbers, Congress and the administration will avoid the heavy lifting that is required to clear away the wreckage of the recession.

Layoffs, while waning in the private sector, will shift to the public sector. [Ken’s translation:  bloated government bureaucracies will finally be pared back.]

And as the states tighten, the private sector would be squeezed anew because lower state spending and higher state taxes would mean less consumer spending.

Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/06/opinion/06sat3.html?ref=todayspaper

Uh Oh: Only 1 in 4 Americans think country is on the right track …

March 8, 2010

Punch line: 25% of Americans Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction, Lowest Since Obama Took Office

* * * * *

Excerpted from Rasmussen: Right Direction or Wrong Track, March 03, 2010

Just 25% of U.S. voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, the lowest level of voter confidence since early January 2009.

69% believe the nation is heading down the wrong track, the highest level measured in 14 months.

These findings mirror those in a separate survey  that shows views of the country’s short- and long-term economic future are gloomier than they have been at any time since President Obama took office in January of last year.

Leading up to his inauguration a year ago, the number of voters who felt the country was heading in the right direction remained below 20%.

The week of his inauguration, voter confidence rose to 27% and then steadily increased, peaking at 40% in early May 2009. Confidence has declined since.

Full article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_or_wrong_track

Metrics: Does your EVA have momentum ?

March 8, 2010

My students learn that I’m a big fan of Economic Value Added (EVA) as a profitability. A new measure — called EVA Momentum — takes EVA a step further.  Worth watching.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Fortune: Value Driven – A new financial checkup, January 11, 2010

ROE? Gross margin? Earnings per share? It’s easy to make any of them look better while damaging the business.

Enter EVA.  Economic Value Added is essentially profit after deducting an appropriate charge for all the capital in the business. Because it accounts for all capital costs, EVA is the best measure of value creation.

A new ratio —  EVA momentum — takes EVA to the next level by being difficult to manipulate.

“It always increases when managers do things that make economic sense.”

EVA momentum is a simple concept: It’s the change in a business’s EVA divided by the prior period’s sales.

So if a company increases its EVA by $10 million and the prior period’s sales were $1 billion, then its EVA momentum is 1%.

For most companies, EVA momentum is zero or negative, and the average for many companies is generally around zero.

Stewart’s firm, EVA Dimensions, has crunched the five-year data for firms with revenues of at least $1 billion. The three top performers by EVA momentum: Gilead Sciences (with an average annual EVA momentum of 24.3%), Google (22.7%), and Apple (12.1%).

Achieving high EVA momentum requires a business to do two difficult things at once. It must grow while at the same time maintaining healthy EVA profit margins or improving poor ones.

While Stern-Stewart (fathers of EVA) have measured EVA momentum in hundreds of companies, real businesses have yet to apply it.

So there’s no telling what will happen when this ratio confronts actual managers trying to make actual profits.

But, it’s a  new idea that just might work.

* * * * *

EVA momentum: How to get it right

  1.  Don’t obsess about sales. Managers fixate on how to increase their company’s revenues, but if it doesn’t boost EVA, it does nothing to create value.
  2. Bail out of EVA-negative businesses. Ford’s sale of capital-intensive, EVA-sapping Jaguar and Land Rover shrank the company, but in the end increased its value.
  3. Annihilate wasted capital. Cutting working capital, as Wal-Mart did in 2009, and offloading unproductive assets are great opportunities to build EVA when growth is slow.

Full article:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/08/news/economy/eva_momentum.fortune/index.htm

Liar, liar … pants on fire !

March 5, 2010

OK, all politicians lie.  That’s not new news. But …

If you haven’t seen these clips, watch them now. 

Two separate clips … definitely “must see TV”.

In his words: “Reconciliation is  a majoritarian abuse of power” and “Democrats Should Not Pass Healthcare With a 50-Plus-1 Strategy.”

Makes Tiger Woods seem like a pillar of trustworthiness …

image 
http://www.breitbart.tv/obama-american-agenda-flashback-dems-should-not-pass-healthcare-with-a-50-plus-1-strategy/

image
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/02/025673.php

A colossal waste of time — if we’re lucky.

March 5, 2010

Punch line: ObamaCare’s essential mistake is to choose health-care expansion over health-care reform.

Another insightful column from Peggy Noonan.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: What a Disaster Looks Like , Mar 5, 2010

ObamaCare will have been a colossal waste of time—if we’re lucky.

It is now exactly a year since President Obama unveiled his health care push and his decision to devote his inaugural year to it—his branding year, his first, vivid year.

What a disaster it has been.

At best it was a waste of history’s time, a struggle that will not in the end yield something big and helpful but will in fact make future progress more difficult. At worst it may prove to have fatally undermined a new presidency at a time when America desperately needs a successful one.

In terms of policy, his essential mistake was to choose health-care expansion over health-care reform. This at the exact moment voters were growing more anxious about the cost and reach of government.

The practical mistake was handing the bill’s creation over to a Democratic Congress that was becoming a runaway train. This at the exact moment Americans were coming to be concerned that Washington was broken, incapable of progress, frozen in partisanship.

New presidents should never, ever, court any problem that isn’t already banging at the door. They should never summon trouble.

Mr. Obama did, boldly, perhaps even madly. And this is perhaps the oddest thing about No Drama Obama: In his first year as president he created unneeded political drama, and wound up seen by many Americans not as the hero but the villain.

And now here are two growing problems for Mr. Obama.

The first hasn’t become apparent yet, but I suspect will be presenting itself, and soon. In order to sharpen the air of crisis he seems to think he needed to get his health-care legislation passed, in order to continue the air of crisis that might justify expanding government and sustaining its costs, and in order, always, to remind voters of George W. Bush, Mr. Obama has harped on what a horror the economy is. How great our challenges, how wicked our businessmen, how dim our future.

The president can’t be a hope purveyor while he’s a doom merchant, and he appears to believe he has to be a doom merchant to justify ramming through his legislation. This particular legislation is not worth that particular price.

All this contributes to a second problem, which is a growing credibility gap. In his speech Wednesday, demanding an “up or down” vote, the president seemed convinced and committed — but nothing he said sounded true. His bill will “bring down the cost of health care for millions,” it is “fully paid for,” it will lower the long term deficit by a trillion dollars.

Does anyone believe this?

Does anyone who knows the ways of government, the compulsions of Congress, and how history has played out in the past, believe this? Even a little?

It would be a relief to have a president who could weigh in believably and make clear what his own bill says. But he seems to devote more words to obscuring than clarifying.

The only thing that might make his assertions sound believable now is if a group of congressional Republicans were standing next to him on the podium and putting forward a bill right along with him. 

GOP support won’t happen, for three reasons. First, they enjoy Obama’s discomfort. Second, they believe the bill is not worth saving, that at this point no matter what it contains —a nd at this point most people can no longer retain in their heads what it contains — it has been fatally tainted by the past year of mistakes and inadequacies.

And the third reason is that the past decade has taught them what a disaster looks like, and they’ve lost their taste for standing next to one.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704187204575101742162779612.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

The fundamental economic problem of our age … and the impotency of policy makers.

March 5, 2010

Punch line: Commentary from Bill Gross — one of the premier bond traders in the world:  

“The impotency of policymakers … has consequences for credit and asset markets worldwide.”

* * * * *

Excerpted from PIMCO investment outlook, March 2010

Let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack of global aggregate demand – and how we got to where we are today:

(1) Twenty years of accelerated globalization incrementally undermined the real incomes of most developed countries’ workers/citizens …

forcing governments to promote leverage and asset price appreciation in order to fill in what is known as an “aggregate demand” gap – making sure that consumers keep buying things.

When the private sector assumed too much debt and asset prices bubbled (think subprimes and houses, or dotcoms/NASDAQ 5000), American-style capitalism with its leverage, deregulation, and religious belief in lower and lower taxes reached a dead end.

There was a willingness to keep on consuming, there just wasn’t the wallet. Vigilantes – bond market or otherwise – took away the credit card like parents do with a mall-crazed teenager.

(2) The cancellation of credit cards led to the Great Recession and private sector deleveraging, the beginning of government policy reregulation, and gradual deglobalization – a reversal of over 20 years of trade policies and free market orthodoxy.

In order to get us out of the sinkhole and avoid another Great Depression, the visible fist of government stepped in to replace the invisible hand of Adam Smith.

Short-term interest rates headed to 0% and monetary policies of central banks incorporated new measures labeled “quantitative easing,” which essentially involved the writing of trillions of dollars of checks to replace the trillions of dollars of credit that disappeared after Lehman Brothers.

In addition, government fiscal policies, in combination with declining revenues, led to double-digit deficits as a percentage of GDP in many countries, a condition unheard of since the Great Depression.

(3) Financial crises led to sovereign defaults or at least uncomfortable economic growth environments where real GDP was subpar based on onerous debt levels – sovereign and private market alike.

Dubai, Iceland, Ireland and recently Greece pointed to a potential flaw in the model.

Now, markets are raising interest rates on sovereign debt issuance either in anticipation of higher future inflation, increased levels of credit risk, or both. This places a potential “cap” on the “debt” that supposedly can be created to get out of the “debt crisis.”

* * * * *

An investor’s motto should be, “Don’t trust any government and verify before you invest.”

The potential impotency of policymakers to close the gap are evolving into a life or death outcome for the weakest sovereigns, with consequences for credit and asset markets worldwide.
 
Full article:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+March+2010+Bill+Gross+Dont+Care.htm

The "empathy decay rate" … and cocktail party acceleration.

March 5, 2010

Bill Gross is the one of the world’s premier bon traders.

His view on bonds – I don’t care.

His views on cocktail parties — now, you’re talking.

* * * * *
Excerpted from PIMCO.com: I Don’t Care, March 2010

Cocktail parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does.

The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print.

You can bet that unless there’s a requested personal favor coming, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems.

image

During that unbearable minute-and-a-half, however, you’re likely to have covered some of the following topics:

  • Where are you from? (If it’s not a place where I’ve been or have a distant second cousin – don’t care.)
  • How’s the family? (If Johnnie is in advanced placement courses and my kids aren’t – don’t care. Don’t care about your kids’ soccer games either or that upcoming wedding.)
  • Medical problems? (Unless you’re dying from cancer – people don’t really care. Your artificial hip and kidney stone stories are important only to let them tell you about their’s.)
  • How’s work? (Forgot where you work, but it’s a good lead in. Don’t really care though unless you can direct some business my way.)
  • Can you believe Tiger? (Now there’s something I care about, but the wife is only five feet away.)

Thank god for the, the “afterparty” — driving home with your partner and dissing all of the guests.

Full article:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+March+2010+Bill+Gross+Dont+Care.htm

Obesity … a disease, or a right ?

March 4, 2010

I can live with higher tanning salon taxes, but closing fast food outlets is going way to far … this guy seems to agree … passionately.

Pro-choice advocates represent the sensical notion that it is not the government’s prerogative to legislate what women do with their physicalities.

It goes without saying that the freedom to abort ones’ fetus should not be the only choice that our country protects. Yet, in recent years, federal, state, and local governments nationwide … have legislated to limit our freedom to chose to smoke cigarettes, gamble our money, bag groceries, borrow cash, drink booze, enjoy tanning beds and anger our girlfriends by getting lap dances.

And just this week, under the leadership of First Lady Michelle Obama, the federal government has launched a new program to limit our freedom to get fat.

While the program is being sold as an attempt to limit childhood obesity, the policies it proposes will affect the lives of all Americans.

As I’ve argued previously, obesity is a physical manifestation of our country’s greatest and most laudable triumph: its defeat of hunger and want.

But, more than that, obesity is a manifestation of personal freedom: if ones enjoy eating hamburgers, then may he chomp away.

Contrary to the infantalizing notion that obesity is a “disease,” an expanding waist line is simply the result of free actors choosing to eat foods that they enjoy.

Indeed, the linguistic decision to label it an obesity “epidemic” reduces dynamic, free individuals into victims and disease carriers, unwittingly transmitting pathogens of obesity. It’s as if they “caught” obesity when they were sneezed on by a fat person.

Realizing that free people will often chose to get fat, anti-obesity crusaders are now actively seeking to limit our choices.

The city of Los Angeles has attempted to impose a moratorium on the construction of new fast food outlets.

Most troublingly, the Obama Administration’s new initiative will seek to change the culinary and commercial makeup of neighborhoods across the country, and potentially mandate the availability of “healthier” options.

All of this is designed to limit our ability to eat what we want, when we want. In other words, it’s about eliminating choice. The thing is: a lot of people like eating jelly donuts, pepperoni pizza, and chocolate cake.

Let them eat cake.

Source blog: Epstein’s Razor
http://trueslant.com/ethanepstein/2010/02/13/im-pro-choice-on-obesity/

Frogs threatened by “gender bending” chemical castration … Kermit frets, Miss Piggy squeals.

March 4, 2010

The good news: Scientists not sure if atrazine affects humans in a similar way.

* * * * *

Excerted from USA TODAY, Tap water contaminant ‘castrates’ frogs, March 3, 2010 

An herbicide that contaminates the tap water consumed by millions of Americans has been found to produce gender-bending effects in male frogs, “chemically castrating” some and turning others into females.

Frogs in an experiment were exposed to amounts of the weedkiller atrazine that are comparable to the levels allowed in drinking water by the EPA.

The atrazine caused male frogs to begin growing eggs in their testes … nearly all of the other males had low testosterone and sperm levels … 10% of the males actually changed sex … some were able to breed and lay eggs. 

The experiment can’t tell scientists whether atrazine affects humans in a similar way. 

Full article:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2010-03-02-1Aatrazine02_ST_N.htm

Thanks to LKJ for feeding the lead …

Blockbuster: Dead man walking ?

March 4, 2010

Question: when was the last time your were in a Blockbuster?

* * * * *

Excerpted from Business Week: Blockbuster Plots a Remake, Feb. 24, 2010  

With its traditional video-rental business under assault, Blockbuster  has brought in restructuring advisers, looking to buy yet more time to remake itself in the face of new rivals and technologies.

Blockbuster’s plight comes amid major shifts in how people rent and watch movies. Consumers are now getting movies through Redbox, a unit of Coinstar  that operates $1-a-night movie-vending machines in grocery stores and McDonald’s outlets.

Netflix mail-order and online rental service has also stolen Blockbuster customers. Consumers are also watching movies and TV shows through on-demand cable services and electronic gadgets such as Apple Inc.’s iPod.

Blockbuster has adjusted its business, outlining plans to close nearly 1,000 stores out of roughly more than 5,000 world-wide.

As the movie-rental business has evolved, Blockbuster has moved into other video-watching services, such as its own mail-order service, DVD rental kiosks and a digital on-demand service, but it remains far behind its major competitors in those areas.

Blockbuster reaps licensing fees from NCR Corp., which rolled out about 2,500 Blockbuster Express branded vending machines last year and plans to have up to 10,000 DVD kiosks by the end of this year. Blockbuster’s kiosk presence is much smaller than that of Redbox, which has more than 22,000 vending machines.

Blockbuster’s mail-order service has about 1.6 million subscribers, compared with Netflix’s roughly 12 million.

There’s skepticism whether Blockbuster can realize enough value from new business offerings in time to offset declines at its traditional brick-and-mortar outlets.

“If they can’t build a profitable stores operation, then there is no Blockbuster. It’s real simple. If traffic doesn’t pick up by mid-year, we may just kiss this whole story good-bye. We got a dead-man-walking situation here.”

image

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703503804575083792463467472.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Remember when Obama touted Buffett as the smartest businessman around ?

March 3, 2010

Well, haven’t seen Buffett at the WH as much as the SEIU president.  In fact, don’t recollect seeing there at all in the past year.  Hmmm.

My bet: Warren probably won’t make the President’s invitation list any time soon, now that he advocates scrappoing the ObamaCare bill and starting over with a sharp focus on reducing healthcare costs.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Politico: Warren Buffett would scrap health care bill, 3/1/10 

In a CNBC interview,  CEO Warren Buffett said that President Barack Obama should start over on health care …  scrapping the current health care bills and starting over.

Buffett said the current bill does not focus on controlling costs, which he sees as the central problem that must be addressed to reform the system.

“What we have now is untenable over time …  like a tapeworm eating, you know, at our economic body.”

“We have a health system that, in terms of costs, is really out of control.”

While Buffett applauded Obama for taking up the reform effort, he said that “unfortunately, we came up with a bill that really doesn’t attack the cost situation that much.”

Asked if he would be in favor of scrapping the Senate health care bill, Buffett responded: “I would be.”

If the president were to start over, Buffett would advise him to “just  say that one way or another, we’re going to attack costs, costs, costs.”

Buffett urged Obama to say that “we’re going to cut off all the kinds of things like the 800,000 special people in Florida or the Cornhusker kickback, as they called it, or the Louisiana Purchase, and we’re going to — we’re going to get rid of the nonsense. We’re just going to focus on costs and we’re not going to dream up 2,000 pages of other things.”

Buffett would like to expand access to health insurance, but he said he does not “believe in insuring more people till you attack the cost aspect of this.”

Full article:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33693.html

Innovation: USAA says “Grab your iPhone”

March 3, 2010

Using your iPhone to deposit checks in your bank account, to initiate insurance claims from the accident scene, and to go toe-to-toe with car salesmen … now, that’s cool stuff, for sure.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Business Week: Customer Service Champs – USAA’s Battle Plan,  February 18, 2010

The provider of financial services for military families uses remote technology and a keen focus on clients to stay atop our annual customer service rating

When customers want to deposit checks, they don’t need to use an ATM, a teller at a branch, or even a stamped envelope and deposit slip. Rather, they can take a  picture of the check with their iPhone, use an app to send it to their bank, and within minutes the money shows up in their accounts. Giants like Bank of America are just testing a similar service.

In almost everything it does, the financial-services outfit puts itself in the spit-shined shoes of its often highly mobile military customers, many of whom face unique financial challenges.

USAA was the first bank to allow iPhone deposits, it routinely texts balances to soldiers in the field, and it heavily discounts customers’ car insurance while they are deployed overseas.

“They do all this really creative stuff … There is nobody on this earth who understands their customer better than USAA.”

No fewer than 87% of respondents to J.D. Power’s syndicated surveys say they will definitely buy from the company again, far higher than the average, which is just 36%. Its client retention rate? A near-perfect 97.8%.

Reps are armed with software that lets them view a history of the online screens a particular customer has viewed on USAA’s Web site, letting them know what policies or business lines the customer was perusing — and may be ready to buy.

Another high-tech service USAA rolled out in 2008 lets its far-flung customers — a sizable number of whom are young, tech-savvy, and living paycheck to paycheck — get text messages about their account balances before, say, making a big purchase.

Later in 2010, USAA is planning mobile peer-to-peer payments, which let customers e-mail or text-message money to friends or family for immediate deposit, no matter where they are at the time.

USAA was among the first to let customers initiate an insurance claim using their phones from the scene of an accident. And it soon will expand that app so policyholders can attach photos to the claim and complete the entire process via phone. By 2011 customers will even be able to attach voice recordings to their file, immediately retelling exactly what happened.

Also coming this year: a mobile car-buying service that lets customers standing at a dealership snap an iPhone pic of a vehicle’s VIN number and instantly get back insurance quotes, loan terms, and pre-negotiated rates at approved dealerships. “The idea is you can turn that phone around to the salesman and say ‘this is the price I’m going to pay.’ ”

Besides helping policyholders, such technology benefits USAA.  “If you can have the member self-serve on certain parts of the claim, or the entire claim … clearly there’s an efficiency gain.” 

Full article:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_09/b4168040782858.htm

How many ‘pages’ are added to the web each day ?

March 3, 2010

The mind has trouble coping with all the information that is thrown at it today.

Consider …

  • More information has been produced in the past 30 years than in the previous 5,000.
  • The total of all printed knowledge doubles every four or five years.
  • One weekday edition of The New York Times contains more information than the average person in 17th-century  England was likely to come across in a lifetime.
  • More than 4,000 books are published around the world every day.
  • The average white-collar worker uses 154 pounds of copy paper a year.
  • Every day the World Wide Web grows by 1 million electronic pages.

Source:  Repositioning: Marketing in an Era of Competition, Change, and Crisis by Jack Trout with Steve Rivkin, 2010

Blue states bleed red ink … surprised?

March 2, 2010

Punch line: What do you get when you have union dominance, lots of  state employees, and a comfortable environment for moochers?  Well, a Dem majority with mountains of debt, lots of unfunded pension liabilities, and enough social services to choke a horse. 

* * * * *

Excerpted from Forbes: Political Litmus Test: Bluest States Spilling The Most Red Ink, 02.25.10 

Want to know which states are in the worst financial condition? One telling indicator that might not immediately come to mind is whether most of its citizens identify themselves as Democrats.

The five states in the worst financial condition–Illinois, New York, Connecticut, California and New Jersey–are all among the bluest of blue states.

Forbes’ metrics for each state included unfunded pension liabilities, changes in tax revenue, credit ratings, debt as a percentage of Gross State Product, debt per capita, growth expectations for employment and the state economy, net migrations and a “moocher ratio” that compares government employees, pension burdens and Medicaid enrollees to private-sector employment.

Why do Democratic states appear to be struggling more than Republican ones? It comes down to stronger unions and a larger appetite for public programs.

“Unions in general have more influence in Democratic-controlled states … where they’re strong you have bigger demands for social services and coalitions with construction companies, road builders and others that push up debt.”

Of the 10 states in the worst financial condition, eight are among a total of 23 defined by Gallup as “solidly Democratic,” meaning the Democrats enjoy an advantage of 10 percentage points or greater in party affiliation. These states include the ones listed above as making up the bottom five, plus Massachusetts, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Of the three other basement-dwellers, Kentucky is defined as “leaning Democratic” (a five- to 10-percentage-point Democratic advantage) and the remaining two–Louisiana and Mississippi–are termed politically “Competitive” (less than a five-percentage-point advantage for either party). Louisiana tilts slightly Democratic and Mississippi slightly Republican.

The majority Republican states ranked among the financially healthiest are Utah, Nebraska, Texas, North Dakota and Montana.

Utah, the fiscally fittest state, has debt of just $442 and unfunded pension obligations of $7,272 per resident. It is also America’s second reddest state with a 21-percentage-point Republican advantage in party affiliation. The Beehive state boasts a triple-A credit rating from Moody’s.

Illinois is in the worst financial condition, with per-capita debt of $1,877 and unfunded pensions of $17,230. Moody’s rates Illinois’ general obligation debt A1, ahead of only California’s.

Full article:
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/25/democratic-states-bad-financial-shape-personal-finance-blue.html

“Damn, I got the silver” … “Yea, I got the bronze”

March 2, 2010

Punch line: Research by three U.S. academics, who analyzed heat-of-the-moment reactions, medal-stand temperament and interviews of Olympians, shows that bronze-medal winners, on average, are happier with their finishes than silver medalists.

* * * * *

Excerpted from USA Today: Analysts: Bronze medal leads to more happiness than silver

Take silver, and you tend to fixate on the near miss.

Score bronze, and you are thankful you were not shut out altogether.

Psychologists described it as counterfactual thinking.

“It’s like a student who gets a B, missing an A by one point. The B’s no longer that good.” 

“Same way when you miss your flight by five minutes. You say, ‘Well, I could have made up five minutes somehow.’ If you get close to it, you think, ‘There are things I could have done.’

“I don’t know whether we learn that type of thinking about what we could have done or if it’s something that’s wired into us.”

Full article:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/vancouver/2010-02-22-bronze-vs-silver_N.htm

Thanks to RSJ and EAH for feeding the lead

Clearing out the deadwood … who will likely stay unemployed.

March 2, 2010

Well managed companies always use recessions as air cover to “restructure” their their work forces.  This recession has beenno exception.

Bottom line: with little optimism re: a bounce back in demand, expect companies to keep producing at about the same levels, and leveraging their now streamlined work forces.

* * * * *

Good point raise by Business Week:

The output per hour of nonfarm workers has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the recession.

image

http://images.businessweek.com/mz/10/09/20100301_numbers.pdf?chan=magazine+channel_the+week+in+business

"Paul" scores a direct hit …

March 1, 2010

Ken’s Take: Rep. Paul Ryan (or simply “Paul” in Obama protocol) was the star of the ObamaCare infomercial on Thursday.  His pointed, fact-based questions about the “reduced deficit” accounting” went conspicuously unanswered by the President. 

Obama didn’t score them as “legitimate points” and they weren’t summarily dismissed as mere “talking points” … but Obama did say he didn’t want the discussion to get “bogged down in the numbers”. 

Why waste valuable time on facts when you can be hearing “legitimate points” about wingnuts wearing their sister’s dentures?

* * * * *

Excerpted from IBD: Rebuttals To Ryan? We’re Still Waiting, 02/26/2010 

It was the Wisconsin congressman who made the most pointed remarks about Obama’s reform proposal. For example:

• “This bill does not control costs (or) reduce deficits. Instead, (it) adds a new health care entitlement when we have no idea how to pay for the entitlements we already have.”

• “The bill has 10 years of tax increases, about half a trillion dollars, with 10 years of Medicare cuts, about half a trillion dollars, to pay for six years of spending. The true 10-year cost (is) $2.3 trillion.”

“The $247 billion Medicare “doctor fix” was outboarded from the plan as an unfunded item.”

• “The bill takes $52 billion in higher Social Security tax revenues and counts them as offsets. But that’s really reserved for Social Security. So either we’re double-counting them or we don’t intend on paying those Social Security benefits.”

• “The bill takes $72 billion from the CLASS Act (long-term care insurance) benefit premiums and claims them as offsets.”

• “The bill treats Medicare like a piggy bank, (raiding) half a trillion dollars not to shore up Medicare solvency, but to spend on this new government program.”

• “The chief actuary of Medicare (says) as much as 20% of Medicare providers will either go out of business or have to stop seeing Medicare beneficiaries.”

• “Millions of seniors who have chosen Medicare Advantage (Medicare through a private insurer) will lose the coverage that they now enjoy.”

Full article:
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=522446

 

Stimulus work ? Elvis alive? … It’s close, but more believe the latter !

March 1, 2010

According to a CBS News poll on the 25th anniversary of Elvis Presley’s death, 7 percent of respondents believed Elvis was still living.

A CBS News/New York Times poll released a few days before the one-year anniversary of the passage of the so-called “stimulus” bill, shows that only 6 percent of respondents believe Keynesian-style spending has “created” jobs.

The Obama Administration’s claims that a depression was averted and promised  that unemployment would remain around 8 percent. Of course, unemployment surpassed 10 percent with stimulus spending.

Taxpayers seem to be looking for more proof.

Source:
http://www.unitedliberty.org/articles/5051-poll-6-of-americans-believe-stimulus-created-jobs-7-believe-elvis-is-alive

Home Depot: Leveraging its “late mover advantage” … huh?

March 1, 2010

Once heralded for its in-store customer service, Home Depot cost-reduced itself into 2nd place in the retailing category it created.

Now, it tries leverage it “late mover advantage”.  Say what ?

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Home Depot Undergoes Renovation, Feb. 24, 2010

Home Depot is regaining momentum after belatedly tackling its biggest fix-it task to date: remodeling itself.

The world’s largest home improvement chain  is redesigning the way it ships merchandise to stores, answers customers’ questions, and showcases its wares on the Internet.

The goal is to improve productivity and expand profits by revamping a slew of business practices that never changed during the company’s mushrooming growth in the 1980s and 1990s, and that look primitive compared to current trends in retailing.

The most dramatic change is that Home Depot is phasing out the antiquated practice of having suppliers send dozens of half-empty trucks directly to its more than 2,200 stores.

A network of “rapid deployment” warehouse centers being completed this year will combine shipments, trim costs and cut truck trips to stores by up to 50%. That will let more of Home Depot’s orange-apron-wearing workers shift from shipping docks to store aisles, in hopes of tackling a festering reputation for bad service.

Home Depot is claiming a “late-mover” advantage will allow it to avoid the costly mistakes that other retailers made modernizing operations.

Home Depot executives concede that the company’s supply chain still won’t be state of the art after the upgrade, though it will be a big step forward.

To tackle the perception that Home Depot workers are always too busy to help customers, the company is spending $60 million on hand-held devices that will help workers check on the spot if something is in stock.

Communication was also a problem at Home Depot. Mr. Ellison said he was stunned to discover that store managers were drowning in hundreds of emails from headquarters.

So Mr. Ellison says he cut it to one email a week, on Monday, and set up a hotline for managers to complain if the edict is violated.

In addition to its supply chain fixes, Home Depot is waking up to the Internet after being embarrassed that Amazon.com — which sells more drills online than Home Depot. Now the company is building a site that not only sells what stores do, but features do-it-yourself videos to help customers with projects. “We’re now building a site that fixes people’s problems.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704188104575083081020924838.html?mod=WSJ-hps-LEFTWhatsNews

Unstimulata: New-Home Sales Drop 11.2% … and a reprise of my Rx

February 26, 2010

Bottom line: No surprise, the housing market is still in the doldrums.

Below are the details … and below them are a reprise of my November 2008 post with a plan for handling part of the foreclosure problem and getting housing back on track.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: U.S. New-Home Sales Drop 11.2%, Feb. 24, 2010

U.S. new-home sales unexpectedly fell in January, setting a record low and erasing all gains made in the market during the past year as the economy recovers from recession.

Demand for single-family homes fell 11.2% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000.

Over the past year, sales had climbed, albeit slowly and unevenly, because of low prices, low mortgage rates, and tax incentives. But Wednesday’s report wiped out the advance and showed, year over year, sales were 6.1% down from January 2009.

Wednesday’s new-home sales data showed inventories picking up slightly. There were an estimated 234,000 homes for sale at the end of January, up from 233,000 in December. The months’ supply at the current sales rate rose, to 9.1 from 8 in December.

The median price for a new home fell, year over year, in January by 2.4%, to $203,500 from $208,600 in January 2009.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704240004575085232728239148.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

* * * * *

Rallying private capital to stabilize the housing market

Ken’s Plan Summary: (1) eliminate ALL of the capital gains taxes on residential property that is bought from now until, say, December 31, 2010 and held for at least 18 months, (2) allow these “qualified residential properties”, if they are rented, to be depreciated for tax purposes at an aggressively accelerated rate (say, over 5 or 10 years) to generate high non-cash tax losses, and (3) allow ALL tax losses generated by these “qualified residential rental properties” to offset owners’ taxable ordinary income with no “passive loss’ limitations, thereby reducing their federal income tax liability.

The positive results are practically guaranteed.  Nonetheless, I haven’t even heard the ideas mentioned.  Guess the politically correct folks in DC don’t read the Homa Files.

* * * * *

From HomaFiles archive, “Big Idea: Rallying private capital to stabilize housing prices”, November 23, 2008.

A stark reality of the current mortgage crisis is that there have been — and will continue to be – an unprecedented and destabilizing number of foreclosures that need to be absorbed into the housing market.  Until they are, home prices will continue to slide and the crisis will persist..

To date, most of the government’s programmatic emphasis has focused on mitigating the financial pressures on lending institutions and investors who funded bad loans, by injecting supplementary capital (loans or preferred stock purchases), or by buying toxic securities..  Some political rhetoric has centered on preventing distressed citizens from “losing their homes”, but few substantive steps have been taken.  Why?

First, once a mortgage has been “securitized” – as most have been — there are contractual limitations on possible loan modifications.   In these instances, mortgage “servicers” have their hands tied.  They are only empowered to collect payments and foreclose on non-payers, with very little latitude between the extremes.

Second, there is the proverbial elephant in the middle of the room.  Many so-called home owners are – truth be told — really “occupants” not “owners”.  Some have no equity in the homes.  Some never did – even before housing prices crashed, submerging loan balances under water.   Many wouldn’t qualify today for restructured loans under the most liberal of terms – e.g. lowered interest rates, extended payment periods, reduced principle balances (to the current fair market value of the homes).  Whether the people legitimately qualified for their initial loans is irrelevant.  Whether their initial loan terms were predatory is also largely irrelevant. Objectively, the low bar is whether they can foot the bill for a restructured mortgage.  The emerging evidence seems to suggest that many – maybe most – can’t.

That leads to an inescapable conclusion: regardless of what remedial government bailouts are enacted – the housing market will continue to be flooded with foreclosures.

So, a pivotal economic policy question is how to get the foreclosed properties off the market and into the hands of private owners (i.e. not onto the government’s asset rolls), and how to keep them there until they can be remarketed at an orderly pace and higher prices.

Three straightforward changes to the income tax code – throwbacks to yesteryear — could provide the necessary financial incentives to rally private capital back into the housing market to buy, hold, and rent foreclosed homes: (1) eliminate ALL of the capital gains taxes on residential property that is bought from now until, say, December 31, 2010 and held for at least 18 months, (2) allow these “qualified residential properties”, if they are rented, to be depreciated for tax purposes at an aggressively accelerated rate (say, over 5 or 10 years) to generate high non-cash tax losses, and (3) allow ALL tax losses generated by these “qualified residential rental properties” to offset owners’ taxable ordinary income with no “passive loss’ limitations, thereby reducing their federal income tax liability.

For example, assume that an investor buys a foreclosed home for $200,000 and rents it out at a price that simply breaks even on a cash flow basis.  That is, the rental price just covers interest, taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.  Assuming a 5-year accelerated depreciation schedule, the rental would generate an annual non-cash tax loss of $40,000 that could be used to offset the investor’s ordinary income.  If the investor were in the Obama-boosted 39.6% marginal tax bracket, that ordinary income offset could save the investor almost $16,000 in federal income taxes each year that the property is held and rented.  If the home were then resold – say, in 3 years for $250,000 –  the investor would book $170,000 in capital gains (the $50,000 home price increase, plus the $120,000 in depreciation claimed against ordinary income when the property was being rented), but the investor would owe no capital gains taxes.

Such a program potentially offers several benefits: (1) it would entice private capital to buy (and hold) foreclosures and other distressed residential property, (2) it would likely provide affordable rental housing to people (maybe the current occupants of the homes) who realistically can’t and shouldn’t shoulder the costs of home ownership , and (3) it might take some of the sting out of President-elect Obama’s proposed tax hikes.

It’s a win-win solution to part of a thorny problem.

Original post:
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2008/11/25/big-idea-rallying-private-capital-to-stabilize-housing-prices/
© K.E. Homa 2008

QuickTakes from the ObamaCare Summit

February 26, 2010

I had it on as background music yesterday.  It was a complete waste of time (for them and me), but there were some notables.

(1) Lamar Alexander did a solid job in the GOPs opening statement — he was a great choice

(2) Paul Ryan did a great job laying out the economics in terms simple enough that even Dem reps could understand — which they don’t.

(3) Dick Durbin did a nice job defending trial lawyers: “malpractice suits and settlement amounts are going down not up — so what’s the problem”

(4) Good points by McCain re: the special deals … especially protecting seniors in FL but not in AZ

(5) The GOP doctors disappointed me … I thought they would be the secret weapon … but, they didn’t say anything that was particularly compelling

(6) One more sob story and I would have screamed … it’s legislation via anecdote

(7) I wish they had allotted Biden more time … his shallow comments at least have entertainment value

(8)  Probably reflects my biases, but I thought Obama was generally unpresidential and often downright rude : (a) “… because I’m the President” (b) “Call me Mr. President, but I’ll just call you Bob, and Mary, Harry … not Senator or Congressman” (c) “The campaign’s over John” (d) “Get off your talking points (I have some talking points that I want to share)” (e) “Pssst” … whispering to aides when GOP was talking.

* * * * *

Biggest TakeAway: When the Dems go the reconciliation route, the country will erupt …

Voting with conviction, for survival, or just scorching the earth ?

February 26, 2010

I’ve been concerned for awhile that there’s a strange political dynamic that might come into play re: the healthcare votes.

Conventional wisdom says that Dem reps from conservative states (think Lincoln in Arkansas) would bend over backwards to vote their constituents’ opposition to ObamaCare as a means of preserving their jobs.

My concern: if they aren’t in close races — i.e. probably going to lose in a landslide —  what keeps them from voting against their constituents’ preferences?

Answer: nothing …

Not every Democrat’s top priority is to minimize his party’s electoral losses.

Some would sacrifice the majority in Congress (or their own seats) to achieve the ideological goal of revolutionizing private health care in America.

If Democrats can be persuaded that they’re going to lose anyway, a major political argument against ObamaCare is off the table, and they can vote their ideology.

Source article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704188104575083601589992816.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Coupons surge as economy sputters …

February 26, 2010

No surprise, consumers are more price conscious in the down economy … and companies are responding with a deluge of coupons …

* * * * *

Excerpted from BrandChannel: Heinz – Back To Brand Basics, And Coupons,  February 19, 2010

Consumers are firmly entrenched in a new money-saving mind-set.

This new behavior includes more meals at home and a dramatic increase in coupon use 

“Coupons are back on shoppers’ radar; the economic downturn has instilled a drive to be smart and frugal about spending, and coupons definitely have a role in fulfilling it.”

Americans cashed in 3.3 billion coupons in 2009, a 27 percent jump from 2008 when the financial crisis tipped the US into recession.

“Brands saw coupons as a key to maintaining brand strength … they stood to lose sales to lower-priced competitors and store brands — so they doubled down, hoping to create brand loyalty once the economic dust settles.”

Full article:
http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2010/02/19/Heinz-Back-To-Brand-Basics-And-Coupons.aspx

How to reform healthcare … really !

February 25, 2010

Bottom line: The critical problem is rising costs. The solution is more competition, greater individual control over health spending and structural changes that enhance the healthcare delivery system. e.g. more community clinics.

These guys hit the mail on the head !

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: A Better Way to Reform Health Care, Feb. 24, 2010

None of key ObamaCare elements — mandates, heavy-handed insurance regulation, and entitlement-based, middle-income subsidies – address health care’s fundamental problem: high and rising costs. They simply expand health-insurance coverage. The inevitable consequence will be to exacerbate the cost problem. 

To bring down costs, we need to change the incentives that govern spending. Right now, $5 out of every $6 of health-care spending is paid for by someone other than the person receiving care —insurance companies, employers, or the government. Individuals are insulated from the reality of what their decisions cost. This breeds overutilization of low-value health care and runaway spending.

To reduce the growth of costs, individuals must take greater responsibility for their health care, and health insurers and health-care providers must face the competitive forces of the market.

Three policy changes will go a long way to achieving these objectives: (1) eliminate the tax code’s bias that favors health insurance over out-of-pocket spending; (2) remove state-government barriers to purchasing and providing health services; and (3) reform medical malpractice laws.

The tax code’s favorable treatment of employer-sponsored health insurance over out-of-pocket health-care payments means that, for most families, buying health care through an employer is 30%-40% cheaper than buying it directly.

The best way to address this clear bias is by making all health spending — including out-of-pocket payments, purchases of individual insurance, and purchases of COBRA coverage — tax-deductible. It could also be achieved by expanding Health Savings Accounts and Flexible Spending Accounts, which also level the tax playing field between insured and out-of-pocket spending. That is, they make the tax treatment of insured and out-of-pocket spending more similar.

Many health-policy analysts have argued that counting employer-sponsored insurance premiums as taxable income would be a more effective way to undo the current tax code’s bias toward employer-sponsored health insurance. In theory, we agree.

But the fate of the so-called tax on Cadillac insurance plans only serves to underscore the wisdom of leveling the playing field by making all health-care spending tax deductible. The beneficiaries of these high-priced plans, such as labor unions and public-sector employees, lobbied intensely and largely against the tax, and the president’s plan defers the tax until 2018. The end result is the essential elimination of the plan’s only tangible improvement to incentives.

There are two additional steps to reforming private insurance markets.

First, individuals must be allowed to buy health insurance offered in states other than those in which they live.

The current approach of state-by-state regulation has raised costs by reducing competition among insurance companies. It has also allowed state legislatures to impose insurance mandates that raise prices, while preventing residents from getting policies more suitable for their needs.

Second, reasonable caps on damages for pain and suffering need to be established in medical malpractice cases. Caps on these kind of damages reduce costs and decrease unnecessary, defensive medicine.

These three policies fundamentally change incentives among individuals, insurers, and providers to gradually slow the growth in costs by reducing inefficient demand without sacrificing quality and innovation.

Taken together, the policy changes outlined here will produce a substantial decline in health-insurance premiums. Premiums will fall as workers opt for health plans with higher copayments. Insurance companies will lower premiums in the face of stiffer competition. And doctors will practice less defensive medicine.

It is also important to increase access to health care — but this should not be confused with increasing access to health insurance, and it cannot be achieved without getting costs under control. There are several ideas for improving access worth considering: removing artificial barriers to entry for physicians and within specialty groups, allowing states greater flexibility with Medicaid, providing tax credits for health spending, and expanding programs that provide services directly, such as Community Health Centers.

The president’s plan is failing because it does not speak to the concerns of the majority of Americans. Instead of addressing the high and rising costs of care, it proposes mandates, invasive regulation, and unaffordable new entitlements. This will not bring health-care costs down—it will only make this problem worse.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704804204575069133264585068.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

They’re too dumb to understand … majority (of people) still oppose ObamaCare … too bad, right?

February 25, 2010

I cringe when I hear an Obamatron say that that the majority of Americans support the proposed changes to the healthcare system. 

Some stuff is nuanced, but that’s just a flat out, boldface lie !

Below are Pollster.com’s poll-of-polls — with it’s increasing wide margin of disapproval — and a recap of all recent major polls. 

I guess our elected representatives don’t care — we just need to be protected from ourselves.

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Family Jewels: Blue Nile invests and expands during downturn

February 25, 2010

Blue Nile — self-proclaimed “man’s best friend” — has taken it up a notch …

* * * * *

Business Week: How Four Rookie CEOs Handled the Great Recession – DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER, February 18, 2010

Diane M. Irvine had no time to celebrate getting the chief executive job at online jewelry retailer Blue Nile. Hours after her appointment in February 2008 she had to tell investors that sales from the previous holiday season had been worse than expected—and the credit crunch would probably mean a dreadful next year.

Blue Nile was selling luxury goods in what was probably the worst economy in 75 years,  Adding to the challenge of waning consumer demand were diamond prices, which remained at boom-year levels.

Irvine had to come up with a plan, and fast.

She surprised many by using the recession as an excuse to go on the offensive and gain market share. 

Blue Nile had an edge on brick-and-mortar jewelry brands like Tiffany’s and Zales in a downturn because it required little overhead and virtually no inventory.

Competitors would struggle and close stores; Blue Nile would invest and expand.  

Irvine doubled down on technology that would help bring in new customers. Blue Nile’s site underwent a year-long revamp, adding new tools to help buyers search for diamonds by budget, shape, and quality.

The new CEO also pushed into overseas markets, tweaking the Web site to accept 23 different forms of currency.

Credit was a barrier to many potential sales. So the Seattle company joined up with Bill Me Later (the company eBay would later acquire) to offer customers no-interest financing for six months on large purchases.

Irvine’s offensive is beginning to pay off. Fourth-quarter revenues increased, by 20%.

Meanwhile, three of the top traditional jewelry retailers have filed for bankruptcy, and competitor Zale appears poised for a major restructuring.

Full article:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_09/b4168032766715.htm?campaign_id=magazine_related

Pivoting away from jobs (again) … let’s raise taxes (a lot).

February 24, 2010

HomaFiles was all over this earlier this year: “Uh-oh. New Dem idea: Extending the Medicare tax to interest, dividends, and cap gains”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2010/01/14/uh-oh-new-dem-idea-extending-the-medicare-tax-to-interest-dividends-and-cap-gains/

Bottom line: Not only will the tax rates on dividends and capital gains go up when the Bush tax cuts expire, but a funding source for ObamaCare will be application of MediCare payroll taxes to so-called “unearned income” — i.e. dividend and capital gains.

Here’s a point the WSJ missed: Many seniors live off of their retirement savings — English translation: dividends and capital gains.  Let’s gig the Seniors by extending their contributions’ stream for MediCare, but cutting the benefits. Nice.

Also, note that individuals will be responsible for both the “employee contribution” and the “employer contribution” since there’s no employer. Huh?

* * * * * 

Excerpted from WSJ: Obama’s New Investment Tax – A sneaky Medicare levy on dividends and capital gains, Feb. 24, 2010

The White House’s new health-care proposal’s fine print goes describes one of the largest tax increases in history.

This new ObamaCare bargain would for the first time apply the 2.9% Medicare payroll tax to “interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents,” so-called passive income that we are told includes capital gains.

This antigrowth investment tax … comes on top of the Senate’s 0.9-percentage-point increase in the payroll tax, which would bring the combined employee-employer share to a capital and jobs stiffling 3.8%.

The rate hike on investment income would presumably take effect at the same time the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts are due to expire next year, bringing the top rate to 22.9% as the current top capital gains rate would also rise to 20% from 15%. That’s a 52% jump … and the rate can always be inched up later once the tax is already in place.

* * * * *

The White House levy muddies up both the tax code and Medicare financing.

The Medicare payroll levy was designed as a social insurance program with some connection, however attenuated, between taxes paid and benefits received.

When Medicare passed in 1965 it was modeled after Social Security and the tax was supposed to be equivalent to a “premium” for guaranteed health-care insurance for seniors; everyone “contributed” at the same rate.

Until 1993, the payroll tax was assessed only on the first $135,000 of wages … then the Clinton Administration and the Democratic Congress lifted the Medicare cap entirely.

The Clinton move was bad enough but Mr. Obama’s plan fundamentally changes the nature of the government’s health-care financing.

Medicare’s liabilities mean that it must receive injections of general revenue, but never before have Medicare’s own “dedicated” revenues been siphoned off to fund another entitlement.

Essentially, it turns Medicare financing into a wealth transfer program at a stroke.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704188104575083520811873704.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Losing confidence? … You’re not alone.

February 24, 2010

Maybe the pivot off of jobs and back to healthcare will rev people up again …

P.S. A score of 90 is considered ‘passing’.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in January, declined sharply in February.

The Index now stands at 46.0 (1985=100), down from 56.5 in January. The Present Situation Index decreased to 19.4 from 25.2. The Expectations Index declined to 63.8 from 77.3 last month.

“Concerns about current business conditions and the job market pushed the Present Situation Index down to its lowest level in 27 years (Feb. 1983, 17.5). There are fewer consumers anticipating an improvement in business conditions and the job market over the next six months. Consumers also remain extremely pessimistic about their income prospects. This combination of earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to curb spending.”

 

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

Intel finds sometimes a click is more than just a click

February 24, 2010

Takeaway: Online marketers have long struggled to decipher meaning behind browsers’ online behaviors. Intel has now abandoned traditional web metrics, such as total number of impressions or cost per click, and has adopted a point system whereby activities that are aligned with deep engagement are valued higher than more passive activities.

Intel’s point system has allowed the company to gear its site toward the needs of highly involved users and more precisely measure its returns on its online investments.

With this in mind, marketers should assess if a metric makeover would help them to better focus their efforts and increase online profitability

* * * * *
Excerpt from AdvertisingAge, “Inside Intel’s Effectiveness System for Web Marketing” by Beth Snyder Bulik, January 25, 2010.

A click is just click, and most sophisticated online marketers have realized that click counts are really poor indications of whether their online marketing programs are working.

But if you can start to understand the value behind certain online behaviors, you move much closer to making sense of the efficacy of your spending. That’s why Intel has launched an internally developed program it calls the Value Point System to measure marketing effectiveness online.

The system assigns a pre-determined number of points for every action consumers do online with Intel. Watching a certain online video may garner 40 points, while a site visit is worth only two points. As the online visitor moves about the site, they accumulate points, which Intel uses to evaluate its marketing.

This kind of information is especially important to Intel, because as an ingredient brand that doesn’t sell products directly to consumers, it doesn’t have databases of loyal customers, sales data or even casual shoppers’ e-mail addresses to use for marketing. “It’s really critical that we’re getting maximum impact out of our investment, and measuring what matters is a really important part of that,” said Intel’s director of marketing strategies and campaigns. 

Intel has been a marketing pioneer before, launching the first and arguably most successful ingredient-branding program with “Intel Inside” advertising and marketing partnerships, aggressively adopting in-game advertising and, at one point two years ago, dropping TV advertising altogether. While not every marketing gambit has worked — Intel is back on TV, for instance, having discovered that a mix of online and offline media is necessary to achieve different goals — that doesn’t stop it from pushing the edge.

Ad Age: Why did you decide to institute the Value Point System?

Intel: The opportunity that online represents for us is to be able to really take a look at numbers and data to help evaluate the value we’re getting. What we realized early on was that traditional methods really fell short of our expectations and weren’t as meaningful a method as we were looking for.

A good example of how I describe it is by using the analogy of sending out invitations to a party. Advertisers evaluate whether their party is successful by how many people accept the invitation and knock on their front door. But that really isn’t giving you a meaningful level of information and knowledge around whether that truly was a good party.

What you want to know is, did they knock on the door and did they come inside? What did they do once they came inside? Did they mingle? Did they talk to other people? Did they laugh? Or did they stand in the corner with their arms folded?

Understanding different levels of interaction and engagement helps you evaluate your online activity.

Ad Age: What process did you use before this?

Intel: We looked at the way I think every advertiser out there does: total number of impressions, costs per click, click-through rates. Those are all standard and they’re not bad, but they’re only the tip of the iceberg in terms of the level of information we need to truly measure effectiveness.

In the past, for example, when we would evaluate online activity in China vs. another country, it was always skewed in China’s favor just because of the sheer numbers and the huge population. But when you then start using the same Value Point System and measure the activity, you’re creating a nice even scale, so it becomes an apples-to-apples comparison, where before it wasn’t possible.

Ad Age: Has it yielded any cost savings?

Intel: When you look at a 35% or higher percentage of our media spend going into online, if we can acquire even 10% additional savings through the use of better metrics and information, that’s sizeable for us. It helps us drive down rates, it helps us optimize the value of each dollar spent, and just like any other company we’re under a lot of pressure with our marketing investment to get as much as possible out of it.

* * * * *
Full Article:
http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=141711

* * * * *

You can’t make me do that …

February 23, 2010

Last week I noted that Virginia was about to enact a law outlawing the ObamaCare individual mandate which force a person to buy health whether the wanted it or needed it, or not. 

The states rights legislation is spreading like wildfire.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Health Backlash in the States, Feb.  20, 2010

The backlash against ObamaCare is moving beyond the Tea Parties and has now arrived in state capitals.

In more than 30 states, legislators are proceeding to pass statutes or ballot initiatives that would guarantee the right to choose medical services and insurance.

These laws are generally called Health-Care Freedom Acts. If enacted, they will set off a Constitutional 10th Amendment fight over whether there are limitations on the powers of the federal government to regulate health care and override the protections in these state laws.

Almost all these measures would make it illegal for the government at any level to require a citizen of the state to purchase health insurance. This would let Americans opt out of any federal “individual mandate,” which makes people buy insurance or pay a tax, a la Massachusetts and both the House and Senate bills in Congress.

Second, the bills would guarantee the right of residents to pay directly for health services without incurring penalties or fines. This means citizens could go outside any government-run system to purchase private treatments from the doctor or hospital of their choice. Often, the federal Medicare program doesn’t let doesn’t let doctors charge extra for specialized care.

Virginia’s legislature has already passed such a law.

If Congress passes some version of health legislation, the federal law may pre-empt these state laws. But states do have the right to provide extra protections beyond what federal law guarantees. Many states, for example, have freedom of speech protections that go beyond federal law.

The major constitutional issue is whether Uncle Sam has the right to supercede state laws, based on the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, and compel Americans to join a federal health system, as they must with Social Security and Medicare.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704804204575069821900574214.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop

Miss me yet ? … Put one in the “W” column.

February 23, 2010

The cheery image of former President George W. Bush appeared on a billboard in Minnesota earlier this month, next to the words, “Miss me yet?”

It appears a lot of people think it’s a fair question.

The online store CafePress saw a spike in demand for items featuring the same image as the billboard. Ten “Miss Me Yet?” items were on the company’s list of its top-selling designs.

“There were no Obama-themed designs on the list … Bush has stolen the political spotlight, just like Sarah Palin did the week before when she re-surfaced with crib notes written in her palm.”

Obama-themed merchandise saturated the Washington area around the time of the president’s inauguration last year, but by the fall, the enthusiasm for Obama caps, t-shirts, commemorative plates and so forth, seemed to fizzle.

U.S. News and World Report noted earlier this month that even the Obama Store, located in tourist-filled Union Station, has closed, in what “may be the most tangible sign yet that the [Obama] honeymoon is over.”

From CBS News: “Miss Me Yet?” Bush Merchandise a Hit Online, February 17, 2010
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/17/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6216739.shtml

Sorry, you need more loyalty points (and cash on the card) for the free latte …

February 23, 2010

The local shoe store — buy nine pairs; get the 10th pair free. At the pizzeria 10 receipts means a free pie. At The Body Shop eight points earns a tub of  Satsuma Body Butter.

Shell out $25 for a Starbucks card and get two free lattes (one for signing on, one for your birthday) plus a 10% discount on every drink.

That was then.  Now Starbucks is dumping the old card in favor of a new one with a tiered system of rewards involving stars. You’ll get one free beverage for every 15 transactions. (Note: number of transactions, not number of drinks. Buy 2 drinks and sorry, it’s one transaction.)

Starbucks says the new card is free.

Well, not quite free. Loading cash on the card and using it to pay for drinks is the only way to reap the benefits of the new program. Just think of those stars as the chain’s way of thanking caffeinistas for what amounts to an interest-free loan.

Companies that make alienating changes in their loyalty and rewards programs “are playing with fire,” says Allen Adamson, managing director of the branding company Landor Associates.

Consider the trickle-down effect of these shape-shifting programs. A marathoner will complete the 26-mile, 385-yard race only to be told at the tape that the new distance is 27 miles. A couple who’ve been married for a quarter of a century will discover that the new requirement for a silver anniversary — let’s call it super-silver — is 30 years of wedded togetherness.

Excerpted from WSJ: Buyer Be Wary of Your Loyalty Being Betrayed, Feb. 19, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704509704575018963639140970.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

President’s "strong approvers" hits new low …

February 22, 2010

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday February 21 shows that 22% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. That is the lowest level of strong approval yet recorded for this President.

Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19.

The Approval Index has been lower only on one day during Barack Obama’s thirteen months in office (see trends). The previous low came on December 22 as the Senate was preparing to approve its version of the proposed health care legislation.

The current lows come as the President is once again focusing attention on the health care legislation.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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My take on the Stimulus …

February 22, 2010

The Washington Post says:

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S argument with Republicans over the effectiveness of the $862 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act — a.k.a., the stimulus bill — is not an easy one for him to win.

With unemployment at 9.7 percent, he has to make the counterfactual case that things would be even worse if he and congressional Democrats had not administered this dose of deficit-financed tax cuts and spending.

It does not help him that joblessness is well above what it was when the act went into effect a year ago — and higher than the administration predicted it would be after a year of stimulus.

Nevertheless, at its core, the president’s argument is correct.

You cannot inject $300 billion — an amount equal to about 2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product — into the economy without stimulating some short-run economic activity that would not have occurred otherwise.

But, the precise number of jobs that this additional demand “saved or created” —  is not provable.

Nor is it simple to disentangle the Recovery Act’s impact from the trillions of dollars worth of support from other sources, mostly the Federal Reserve.

But it’s churlish to assert flatlythat “not one net job” has been created. The country is better off because of the bill.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/18/AR2010021804662.html

* * * * *

Ken’s Take

No surprise, I wasn’t a big fan of the bailouts or the fiscal stimulus program.  And, suffice it to say, empirical evidence hasn’t given me any reason to jump on the wagon now.

Here’s are the key points that framesmy thinking:

  • Christine Romer – chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers — made her academic reputation on research that convincingly proved that fiscal stimulus doesn’t work.  Her recent conversion makes me a tad suspicious, to say the least.
  • Adding almost $1 trillion to the national debt — the price tag of the stimulus when all the dust settles — is simply a transfer of resouces out of the private sector (eventually) to the public sector (now).  In other words, there will be a subsequent depressing effect on the economy.
  • A big chunk of the stimulus money (around $120 billion) went to extending unemployment benefits, food stamps, etc.  On one hand, I’m ok with helping  folks in tough times.  On the other hand, is it any surprise that the BLS reports record numbers of unemployed people who have stopped looking for work.  It’s called moral hazard, and economists have written about it for decades.
  • About 1/3 of the stimulus was “tax relief for 95% of workers”.  That’s true (I guess), but what was it?  Obama’s $400 rebate checks.  First, evidence seems to suggest that many folks used the money to pay off bills —  that’s certainly not stimulative.  And, I don’t understand why taxpayers (like me) should be paying off somebody else’s overextended credit card balance.  Even if you look at the tax rebate as a stimulant, how much stimulating can a person do with an extra buck-a-day in their wallet?
  • Another chunk of the stimulus actually went towards jobs.  As near as I can tell, about 3/4  of that (around $150 billion) went to preserving the jobs of government workers in states and locales that were spending way beyond their means.  Again, why should folks from fiscally responsibile places bail out some irresponsible local governments, fund marginal teachers hanging on (maybe they should be fired), and preserve bloated government bureaucracies?  I don’t get it.
  • Now, we’re down to the spending on things like roads and bridges and turtle crossings and fast trains between Disneyland and the Mirage (about $50 billion in total).  Even if those are all good things , the administrtion’s numbers say that the bill is over $100,000 for each associated job.  Give me a break.
  • Finally, they said: “Give us $787 billion and we’ll keep unemployemnt uner 8%”.  They didn’t do it.  Period.  Don’t give me “jobs saved or created” — they set the metric and failed to achieve it.

That’s my POV …

Woulda been different if he was the head of a union …

February 22, 2010

This is great from a couple of different angles:

First, the headline at Drudge “OUT THE BACK DOOR DALAI; DON’T SLIP ON THE GARBAGE!”

Second, the picture itself … a living poster re: how to disrespect a guest.

continued below the picture

image
http://www.gettyimages.co.nz/detail/96834730/AFP

Third, the picture’s caption.

“Exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama (L) walks out the doors of the Palm Room of the White House  after meeting with US President Barack Obama.”

Note that it IDs the Dalai as the guy on the left.  But, the guy on the left looks like Chin Ho Kelly from Hawaii-Five-O not the Dalai.  The Dalai is the guy in the middle … right ?

Rating Tiger's apology against "8 Simple Principles" …

February 22, 2010

OK, here’s the essence of what el Tigre said:

Standing at a lectern and speaking from a script in a slow, deliberate voice, Mr. Woods said,

“I was unfaithful. I had affairs, I cheated. What I did is not acceptable and I am the only person to blame.”

“I want to say to each of you, simply and directly, I am deeply sorry for my irresponsible and selfish behavior.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703787304575075051038318196.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

Reaction to his pitch was mixed.  Some saw it as sincere, some saw it as a control freak’s robotic infomercial — the first step to winning back endorsement deals. 

Tiger Woods must stop being a control freak

As always, Tiger Woods sought control on Friday morning.

His scripted apology for marital infidelity offered an unprecedented view of this idol in remorse, choking up, talking about healing himself through Buddhism, taking responsibility for selfishness. 

Fundamentally, though, he remained a hermetically sealed champ, making the statement entirely on his own terms, surrounded by a hand-picked audience, speaking as if from a pulpit, and correctly assuming that the media would lap up every unchallenged syllable. The 13-minute speech will pass a humility test only if graded on a steep curve.

Will his fall from corporate grace, his descent from the family-man pedestal, take his game down, too?

Woods has spent the bulk of his life, and all of his professional years, in a bubble of adulation.  He took for granted that his fans and his colleagues on the PGA Tour would behave like nobles in a Tudor court, genuflecting to a king whose power left them richer than they could have imagined and more intimidated than they cared to admit.

Now, those fans and fellow golfers routinely speak of him with either pity or disdain

 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/02/20/SPVR1C4GJ3.DTL#ixzz0gAosmPCx

Bottom line: some bought in, some didn’t.

This is how Woods ended his statement: “Finally, there are many people in this room, and there are many people at home, who believed in me. Today I want to ask for your help; I ask you to find room in your heart to one day believe in me again.”

Whew, that’s a tall order. Believe in what?

The squeaky-clean Tiger Woods whom people believed in does not exist.

All that’s left is the two-faced, womanizing, narcissist Tiger Woods.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20100220_Editorial__What_is_there_to_believe_.html

How do you think Tiger did?  Awhile ago, I stumbled on “8 simple principles” for making a meaningful apology.  A nice grading key …

* * * * *

Nothing relieves the pain caused by a mistake quite so effectively as a genuine and unconditional apology.

There is simply no way to state strongly enough what a difference it can make in relationships.

The problem with most apologies is that they’re “CPI”  — Cheap, Premature, and Incomplete — “I’m sorry if I hurt you.” “Whatever it was that I did, I apologize.”

Here are some simple principles that can make an apology more meaningful.

  1. Understand first, then apologize. Make sure you really understand what has happened and what part you played in it.
  2. Talk to everybody involved. It’s not enough that you apologize to the person you hurt directly. You need to apologize as well to the people who know what you did.
  3. Be specific  … so it’s clear that you understand your mistake.
  4. Apologize unambiguously. Say you’re sorry, and  be careful not to qualify it at all. That’s why “I’m sorry if I hurt you” and “I don’t know what I’ve done, but I apologize” don’t cut it.
  5. Describe how your mistake has affected you. You may realize, for example, that someone you care about deeply has trouble trusting you now. If so, you need to describe that as part of your apology.
  6. Outline the steps you’re taking to avoid similar mistakes in the future. Concentrate on actual behaviors that other people should be able to observe. Then, walk the talk.
  7. Affirm yourself. If you don’t think you’re the kind of person who sets out to hurt people, you need to say so.  You need to state in clear and explicit terms that you think you’re a better person than this behavior would indicate. You need to describe how you plan to demonstrate that over the days and weeks ahead.
  8. Ask for forgiveness — but don’t  press for it quickly. You may even need to ask the other person explicitly not to forgive you too quickly so that forgiveness, when given, will be complete.

* * * **

Warning: just because the principles are simple doesn’t make them easy to apply.

For most of us, they represent a fundamentally different behavior, and changing behavior always feels awkward and uncomfortable at first.

* * * * *

Excerpted from “Apologize – and Make It Count!”

Have a seat next to Sen. Franken, Sen. Mellencamp …

February 19, 2010

From the ‘you can’t make this stuff up’ files: A movement has sprung up urging rocker John Cougar Mellencamp to make a bid for Evan Bayh’s Democratic Indiana senate seat.  Even endorsed by film critic Roger Ebert.  Geez.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Christian Science Monitor: John Mellencamp – Replacement for Evan Bayh in Senate?, Feb. 18, 2010

As Indiana Democratic leaders scramble to replace Evan Bayh in the US Senate race, one name is emerging from left field: rock musician John Mellencamp.

Grassroots efforts are urging Mr. Mellencamp to take the leap. On MSNBC , Katrina Van Heuvel, editor of The Nation, suggested that Mellencamp could be a “populist candidate” as someone “who worked very hard for farmers who faced foreclosures” and “a Heartland son of Indiana.”

Chicago film critic Roger Ebert suggested a Mellencamp candidacy via Twitter Monday.

Mellencamp is revered in his home state, where he continues to live, record music, and raise a family. Best known for hits like  “Jack and Diane,” and “R.O.C.K. in the U.S.A.,” he is also a staunch Democrat who campaigned for Barack Obama.

Mellencamp’s music is known for its populist themes, which have roots in his upbringing in rural Indiana, where his grandparents were farmers.

His stature in the state is formidable, but not enough for some experts to say that he has a chance if picked to run in the November midterm election.

Full article:
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/0217/John-Mellencamp-Replacement-for-Evan-Bayh-in-Senate