Opposition to healthcare plan reaches new high …

September 17, 2009

According to Rasmussen …

One week after President Obama’s speech to Congress, opposition to his health care reform plan has reached a new high of 55%.

The latest Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows that just 42% now support the plan, matching the low first reached in August.

A week ago, 44% supported the proposal and 53% were opposed.

Following the President’s speech —  intended to relaunch the health care initiative —  support for the president’s effort bounced as high as 51% .

But the new numbers suggest that the bounce was short-lived.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/september_2009/health_care_reform

What’s your core value? Take your choice: fidelity or convenience.

September 17, 2009

TakeAway: In this adaptation from his new book, Trade-Off: Why Some Things Catch On, and Others Don’t author Kevin Maney explains the tension between two key qualities — fidelity and convenience — and how a great brand fell into the trap of becoming too familiar got caught in a no-man’s-land between them.

For a brand like Starbucks, familiarity and ubiquity are deadly.

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Fortune, How Starbucks lost its ‘fidelity’, September 16, 2009

We constantly, in our everyday lives, make trade-offs between fidelity and convenience.

Those trade-offs, and how they affect business, help explain why Starbucks  hit a wall in 2007 — and why CEO Howard Schultz is still struggling to get his company’s mojo back.

Fidelity [as in high-fidelity] is the total experience of something.

At a rock concert, for example, it’s not just the quality of the sound, which often isn’t as good as listening to a CD on a home stereo, but also everything else going on, like the crowd around you and the social cache of later telling people you saw the band live.

Convenience is how easy it is to get what you want. That includes whether it’s readily available, whether it’s easy to do or use, and how much it costs. If something is less expensive, it’s naturally more convenient because it’s easier for more people to get it.

Consumers are willing to give up convenience for great fidelity, or ditch fidelity for great convenience.

But anything that offers just so-so fidelity and so-so convenience falls into a no-man’s-land of consumer apathy that I call the fidelity belly. That’s where music CDs, newspapers, and desktop Windows-based PCs find themselves today.

* * * * *

Remarkably, the most successful products and services tend to be either high in fidelity or high in convenience — one or the other, but not both. In fact, products attempting to be both typically end up with a confused brand, like if McDonald’s tried to do gourmet meals.

This impossible place of both fidelity and convenience is something I call the fidelity mirage. And Starbucks chased it big-time.

After a decade of stupendous success, Starbucks ran into trouble in 2007.

Starbucks, during its heyday, was all about fidelity.

It was all about creating a high-fidelity experience that was greater than just the coffee … “a taste of romance” and “an oasis — a small escape during a day when so many other things are beating you down.”.

And the products Starbucks served?  Once Starbucks arrived on the scene, it suddenly seemed boring to walk into a deli or a Dunkin’ Donuts and just order coffee with cream and sugar.

Starbucks had a special aura. The green label on a cardboard cup made the coffee it held seem better. Holding that Starbucks coffee cup, being seen in a Starbucks, and being enough of a regular that you knew your favorite complex beverage combination off the top of your head conferred a bit of identity. And for all of this, Starbucks charged premium prices.

As coffee goes, there was essentially nothing convenient about Starbucks. You had to travel to a store, wait in line, and pay exorbitant prices for a product you could make at home or in the office for relatively nothing.

Then. Starbucks launched aggressive expansion plans.

If you build fidelity, the temptation is to then pursue growth. But that growth can lead to the very thing that can kill a high fidelity brand: familiarity.

“Once Starbucks became ordinary, it was committing suicide.”

Starbucks carpet-bombed the world with its franchises. In 1998, the world was populated with 1,886 Starbucks stores. Ten years later, there were 16,226.

The Starbucks brand was extended to ice cream, packaged beverages, and a record label. 

Starbucks Schultz blessed it all, convinced that Starbucks could be everywhere and still be special.

Starbucks started with high fidelity — a unique, a feel-good experience that conferred upon its customers a sense of identity.  

But the expansion plans went in the opposite direction, toward high convenience — making Starbucks  available at every moment.

Convenience acts like anti-matter to fidelity. The more convenient something becomes — the easier it is to get — the more its aura dissipates.

The more convenient something becomes, the less that item identifies its owner as someone unique and special.

For Starbucks, excessive convenience dragged down the brand and made it commonplace.

On the flip side, Starbucks could not achieve genuine convenience.  

The prices of Starbucks’ products were too high, and the lines were toolong, too slow moving. Making fancy customized drinks like frappuccinos tied up the baristas, causing back-ups. Customers realized that if they were looking for a quick, good-enough cup of coffee, it was easier to go to McDonald’s or 7-Eleven, and save a few bucks.

Starbucks’ customers reacted predictably.

Despite more Starbucks around than ever before, people started veering away. 

People looking for convenience saw less reason to pay Starbucks’ prices.

People looking for aura and identity turned back to smaller chains or independent local coffee shops.

When anything — a brand, a rock band, a style of clothing — becomes popular with a huge mass market, the cool people increasingly find it uncool, and look for something new.

In February 2007, founder Howard Schultz deplored “the watering down of the Starbucks experience” and “the commoditization of our brand.”

He immediately began reaching backward, toward Starbucks’ high-fidelity core to “go back to our roots and reaffirm our leadership position as the world’s highest-quality purveyor of specialty coffee.”

First, he shut down 7,000 Starbucks stores for three hours so 135,000 baristas could learn how to correctly make a Starbucks espresso.

Second, Schultz announced that 600 Starbucks outlets in the United States would close — the first time Starbucks backed away from its drive for convenience.

This year, Starbucks got so desperate to win back its premium position, it started opening “stealth” stores — Starbucks-owned stores minus the Starbucks name, meant to mimic small, independent, high-fidelity coffee shops.

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For a brand like Starbucks, familiarity and ubiquity are deadly.

The aura and identity Starbucks once had is gone for most Americans.

It doesn’t mean people will stop going to Starbucks. But it does mean people will be less inclined to seek out Starbucks.

Coffee purveyors that are more convenient (like McDonald’s or 7-Eleven) or are perceived as higher fidelity (independent coffee shops or smaller chains) will have an easier time competing against Starbucks than they used to.

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Full article:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/16/news/companies/kevin_maney_starbucks.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009091612

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"Buying insurance on your own costs 3 times as much" … no kidding?

September 16, 2009

Ken’s Take: Simple arithmetic – if you can’t lay off 2/3s of your insurance bill to an employer (or anybody else), it appears that you’re paying 3 times as much — even though the underlying cost of the insurance didn’t change. 

Are these guys grossly disingenuous or just plain dumb re: basic economics?

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Excerpted from WSJ, Obama and the cost of individual insurance, SEPTEMBER 16, 2009

President Obama likes to take a swipe at “the marketplace” by asserting that “buying insurance on your own costs you three times as much as the coverage you get from your employer.”

This is simply false. The CBO expects premiums for employer-sponsored coverage to cost about $5,000 for singles and $13,000 for families this year on average.

According to the CBO: “Premiums for policies purchased in the individual market are much lower — about one-third lower for single coverage and half that level for family policies.”

One reason that individual policies are cheaper is that they generally require more cost-sharing by consumers.

The reason that employment-based plans seem cheaper is that on average workers only pay 17% of the premiums directly if they’re single (about $850), and 27% for family policies (about $3,500). Businesses pick up the rest by paying lower wages, thus hiding the real costs.

Meanwhile, in the individual market, consumers pay with after-tax dollars.  

This tax differential is the core of “our inefficient and inequitable system of tax-advantaged, employer-based health insurance.”

“While the federal tax code promotes overspending by making the majority unaware of the true cost of their insurance and care … the code is grossly unfair to the self-employed, small businesses, workers who stick with a bad job because they need the coverage, and workers who lose their jobs after getting sick. . . . How this developed and persisted despite its unfairness and maladaptive consequences is a powerful illustration of the law of unintended consequences and the fact that government can take six decades or more to fix its obvious mistakes.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203917304574412813119441566.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

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Aruba, Jamaica … coconut water refreshes a market … well, maybe.

September 16, 2009

TakeAway: Drink makers have figured out that consumers not only want the absence of “negatives” in their foods and beverages, but now also want some “positives”. 

Let’s see if coconut water turns around the bottled water biz.

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Excerpted from WSJ, “Coconut Water Bubbles” By Suzanne Vranica, August 27, 2009

As the once-hot bottled water business loses steam, drink makers are starting to pour money into marketing campaigns for what they hope will be the next sector to come to a boil: coconut water

Coconut water is the clear liquid inside young, green coconuts and is different from coconut milk, which is pressed from the coconut meat. A popular drink in Brazil, the water is now catching on in the U.S., thanks to its healthy image and athletes and celebrities … who drink the product …

For the past 52-weeks ended July 12, sales of bottled water dropped 6% to $7.6 billion …  sales of coconut water doubled this year to roughly $20 million

 “Although it’s a very tiny part of the beverage business, it’s growing fast because it’s seen as a natural product, it’s relatively low in calories and it has a lot of potassium”

The category’s potential is now attracting the biggest players in the beverage business. Earlier this month, PepsiCo agreed to buy Brazil’s largest coconut water company, which makes coconut water brands Kero Coco and Trop Coco …

Edit by TJS

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Full Article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125132416429761857.html

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Justice prevails … B of A shareholders shielded from double-jeopardy

September 15, 2009

The HomaFiles were all over this one early (thanks to a provocative inquiry from SMH — an MSB alum).  We raised the issue way before the WSJ or anybody else. 

In an Aug. 26 post, HomaFiles asked whether it was double jeopardy for shareholders if the SEC fines a company for misleading or defrauding its shareholders.
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/08/26/an-irony-of-sec-fines-double-jeopardy-for-shareholders/

Apparently, the courts asked the same question …  and ruled accordingly.  Coincidence?

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WSJ,  Judge Tosses Out B of A Bonus Deal, Sep 15, 2009

A federal judge threw out the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed settlement with Bank of America over its disclosure of controversial bonuses paid to Merrill Lynch employees, in an unusual ruling that casts doubts about how the agency handles probes of major U.S. companies.

The SEC declined to sue bank executives, saying the banks’ lawyers wrote the allegedly misleading language and it couldn’t find evidence that bank executives intended to mislead shareholders.

Instead, the SEC sued the company itself, i.e. the shareholders .

In a rare scuttling of an SEC settlement, Judge Rakoff said the $33 million fine levied on Bank of America “does not comport with the most elementary notions of justice and morality” because the company’s shareholders — the victims of the alleged misconduct — are the same people being asked to pay the fine.

The judge also had little sympathy for the SEC’s argument that it would be too difficult to pursue executives, since they had been guided by lawyers. “If that is the case, why are the penalties not then sought from the lawyers? And why, in any event, does that justify imposing penalties on the victims of the lie, shareholders?” he asked.

He also had harsh words for BofA, which has recently filed court papers claiming its proxy statement was neither false nor misleading. “If the Bank is innocent of lying to its shareholders, why is it prepared to pay $33 million of its shareholders’ money as a penalty for lying to them?”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203917304574413242609077958.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB125294493976909051-lMyQjAxMDI5NTEyNDkxNDQ0Wj.html

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The power of infographics: The health care debate … reduced to one 8-1/2 X 11.

September 15, 2009

Excerpted from Fast Company, Infographic of the Day: Flow Chart of Obama’s Health-Care Plan, Sep 14, 2009

Charts and infographics have unequaled power to convince and explain. So why aren’t they playing a bigger role in the health-care debate?

President Obama  … uses 21st century technologies in an unprecedented ways … but he remains as musty as John Adams, in at least one respect: His insistence to use speeches alone, unaided by charts or graphs, to get his point across …  It’s not a terribly efficient way to communicate. Not, at least, compared with graphs.

There’s a business-world fetish with that one powerpoint slide that totally encapsulates a problem. Our culture is quickly growing to accept the idea of a definitive infographic, because infographics are better able to model an issue, in its sweep and complexity, than a mountain of words possibly can. No one, outside of CEO’s at investor meetings and politicians, still communicates with huge groups using speeches alone.

Why shouldn’t last week’s address to Congress have been accompanied by a couple charts? 

A summary chart (below) could have be flashed on screen endlessly afterward—more powerful than any meandering quote.

obama's health care chart

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/cliff-kuang/design-innovation/infographic-day-flow-chart-obamas-healthcare-plan

Fumble! Bud's college "fan-cans" yanked from market as colleges protest.

September 15, 2009

TakeAway: Anheuser-Busch made a risky and costly marketing decision when it decided to launch a school-themed Bud Light campaign without the permission of the schools. 

AB wasted a valuable portion of its marketing budget since, due to school protest, it must stop production of and remove the existing inventory of many “themed” beers.

And, it hacked off several of the biggest (football power-house) universities, potentially damaging future relations. 

A little more due diligence or “priming” should have been done before launching this marketing campaign.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ, “Team Colored Bud Cans Leave Colleges Flat” by John Hechinger, August 21 2009

Dozens of colleges are up in arms over a new Anheuser-Busch marketing campaign that features Bud Light beer cans emblazoned with local schools’ team colors …

As part of a broader marketing effort, the Bud Light school-colors campaign, also called “Team Pride” in the marketing materials, aims to use “color schemes to connect with fans of legal drinking age in fun ways in select markets across a variety of sports,” … the cans don’t bear any school’s name or logo…

Colleges fear that promotions near college campuses will not only contribute to underage and binge drinking but also will give the impression that the colleges are endorsing the brew …

Collegiate Licensing Co., which represents about 200 colleges, the National Collegiate Athletic Association and other school-sports organizations, complained to Anheuser-Busch about potential trademark violations after being notified about the campaign. 

At least 25 schools have formally asked Anheuser-Busch to drop the campaign near their campuses. In recent letters, the University of Michigan’s lawyers threatened legal action for alleged trademark infringement, demanding that Anheuser-Busch not sell the “maize and blue” cans in the “entire state.” …

Edit by TJS

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125081310939148053.html

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Ken’s Take: If the powerhouse schools had gotten a cut of the actions, I bet concerns re: underage drinking would have disappeared.  Call me cynical.

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Fumble! Bud’s college "fan-cans" yanked from market as colleges protest.

September 15, 2009

TakeAway: Anheuser-Busch made a risky and costly marketing decision when it decided to launch a school-themed Bud Light campaign without the permission of the schools. 

AB wasted a valuable portion of its marketing budget since, due to school protest, it must stop production of and remove the existing inventory of many “themed” beers.

And, it hacked off several of the biggest (football power-house) universities, potentially damaging future relations. 

A little more due diligence or “priming” should have been done before launching this marketing campaign.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ, “Team Colored Bud Cans Leave Colleges Flat” by John Hechinger, August 21 2009

Dozens of colleges are up in arms over a new Anheuser-Busch marketing campaign that features Bud Light beer cans emblazoned with local schools’ team colors …

As part of a broader marketing effort, the Bud Light school-colors campaign, also called “Team Pride” in the marketing materials, aims to use “color schemes to connect with fans of legal drinking age in fun ways in select markets across a variety of sports,” … the cans don’t bear any school’s name or logo…

Colleges fear that promotions near college campuses will not only contribute to underage and binge drinking but also will give the impression that the colleges are endorsing the brew …

Collegiate Licensing Co., which represents about 200 colleges, the National Collegiate Athletic Association and other school-sports organizations, complained to Anheuser-Busch about potential trademark violations after being notified about the campaign. 

At least 25 schools have formally asked Anheuser-Busch to drop the campaign near their campuses. In recent letters, the University of Michigan’s lawyers threatened legal action for alleged trademark infringement, demanding that Anheuser-Busch not sell the “maize and blue” cans in the “entire state.” …

Edit by TJS

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125081310939148053.html

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Ken’s Take: If the powerhouse schools had gotten a cut of the actions, I bet concerns re: underage drinking would have disappeared.  Call me cynical.

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Healthcare: Pay for quality, not quantity … now, how exactly is that going to work?

September 14, 2009

One of Team Obama’s mantras is that under government-run healthcare, payments to doctors will be made based on quality (outcomes) rather than the quantity of procedures being done.

Nice philosophically, but how to make it happen ?

Couple of observations:

  • Quality over quantity should be easier in education than healthcare since students can be tested for progress.  But, virtually all merit pay programs for teachers (i.e. outcome-based) have been rejected out of hand or fail.  But, they’ll work in healthcare … hmmm.
  • A common method for controlling output quality is to control input quality.  In healthcare, that means rejecting the toughest cases and treating only the sure winners.  For example, when I first investigated corrective eye surgery, the docs rejected me.  My eyes were too bad, and they wanted to tout the percentage of patients that they got to 20/20.
  • It’s argued that a key to controlling quality is to make primary care physicians the coordinators of all medical services. That’s silly because: (1) there is a shortage of primary care docs (evidence: how quickly can you get an appointment when you’re sick? how about an appointment outside the 9 to 5 work day window?); (2) been there, tried that – in the past, most plans required that a patient see a primary care doc to get a referral to a specialist – the referral was almost always given – net impact: a step was added to the process

I guess it’s better to bum’s rush through legislation than to give it serious thought.  Disappointing.

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What’s happening? Check out Google Domestic Trends

September 14, 2009

New to me is an interesting tool from Google.

Google Domestic Trends track Google search traffic across specific sectors of the economy. Changes in the search volume of a given sector on google.com may provide unique economic insight.
http://www.google.com/finance/domestic_trends

You can access individual trend indexes.  (Full list below)

For example, the Google Auto Buyers Index tracks queries related to “car, blue book, toyota, kelly book”.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:AUTOBY

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The Google Real Estate Index tracks queries related to “real estate, mortgage, rent, apartments”.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:RLEST

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The Google Unemployment Index tracks queries related to “unemployment, social, social security, unemployment benefits”. 
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:UNEMPL

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Full list of Goggle Domestic Trends

image image

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Ken’s Take: Google Domestic Trends is a blunt tool that will make hardcore statisticians puke.  Nonetheless, an interesting — and, I bet, directionally accurate set indicators.

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Thanks to MSB MBA alum John Tags for the heads-up

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About those doctors who rush to rip out the kid’s tonsils …

September 11, 2009

Pres Obama raised some eyebrows when he implied in his press conference that doctors will sometimes opt to perform surgery on patients because the reimbursements are higher.  The example was silly since surgeons – not GPs – generally rip out tonsils. 

But, there is a broader issue: how & why might a doctor perform unnecessary or marginally required procedures.

Here are a couple of interesting factoids.

Excerpted from WSJ: Obama and the Practice of Medicine, Aug 14, 2009 

Medicare data shows that for the most part, major surgeries aren’t the source of waste in health care. These kinds of procedures are typically guided by clear clinical criteria and are closely scrutinized by doctors and patients alike. Rather it is in routine procedures and treatments that economic incentives factor heavily into doctors’ decisions.

But, doctors have been accused of excessive prescription of home medical equipment and excessive utilization of radiology scans since —  In the absence of financial incentives to restrain excess use —  relatively safe diagnostic procedures can often be justified—even if their benefits are slim.

For doctors whom Medicare pays per intervention, the problem isn’t the fee-for-service model, but the way that the government program sets the fees. Medicare’s size demands that it keep payment systems simple. Thus it relies on fixed prices for checklists of services tied to discrete billing codes. These uniform payment rules reward low and high quality care the same. Fees are set according to a fixed price schedule with no tie to the physician’s quality, experience level, or the outcome of the service.A more rational system would pay doctors for entire “episodes of care,” rather than individual procedures.

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Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204409904574350370729883030.html

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Reprise: Medicare-Medicaid waste & fraud … stop yakking and fix it already.

September 10, 2009

This was originally posted July 23. 

Six weeks later, it’s still Obama’s silver bullet for covering some added healthcare costs … but nothing has been done.  If the “nut” is so juicy, go crack it already.  Comprehensive healthcare reform isn’t required to root out waste and fraud in existing programs.  We’ve wasted another $6.5 billion since my last post on the subject.  Hmmm.

* * * * *

Currently, U.S. health care expenditures are about $2,1 trillion (just over $7,000 per person).

Of that, roughly half is already government administered via Medicare and Medicaid.

Would someone please explain to me:

(!) Why Obama’s crack team doesn’t fix the problem instead of just constantly whining about it ?  My hunch: finding random instances of abuse is easy, but ferreting  out fraud en masse is hard to do – and fixing it requires a massive overhaul of systems and procedures. If more people or resources are required, spell them out and get Congress to approve them post haste.

(2) If that half of the national healthcare budget is managed so badly by the government, why should we expect that the government will do any better with the other half if they take that over?

Ken’s Take: How about the government fix Medicare-Medicaid starting today, and when success is evident, come back and pitch to take over the other half.

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Hard Facts

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How To Really Fix Our Health-Care System

September 10, 2009

Washington Post,10 Things I Hate About Health-Care Reform, September 6, 2009

As a cardiologist and the administrator of a large practice that includes general internists and specialists, I spend much of my time trying to figure out how to provide care for a growing number of uninsured or underinsured patients. I also have to battle billion-dollar private insurance companies that don’t adequately cover patients with preexisting illnesses and often deny coverage for necessary treatments.

Here are 10 major reasons why I — and doctors like me — worry that the legislation on the table will leave us worse off.

1. Private insurance companies escape real regulation.

2. We urgently need tort reform, but it’s nowhere to be seen.

Without fixing these spiraling insurance costs and the legal environment that allows large payments in unjust suits, physicians will continue to practice expensive “defensive” medicine or simply leave states that do not enact tort reform.

3. “Prevention” won’t magically make costs go down.

in general, prevention adds to costs instead of reducing them. That’s because it often means medication for hypertension and elevated cholesterol, and screening and early treatment for cancer. No amount of “prevention” will put a dent in the cost of keeping Americans healthy.

4. Reform efforts don’t address our critical shortage of health-care workers.

Many people believe that the fix for our physician deficit is simple: expand class sizes at existing medical schools and create new ones. Sorry, it’s not that easy. There is a cap on the number of federally funded training positions for newly minted M.D.s. It hasn’t changed since 1996. If the number of graduates of U.S. medical schools increases but the number of post-graduate training positions remains the same, we won’t have fixed the problem — we’ll have created a different one.

5. We need more primary-care physicians — but we also need specialists.

Everyone is worried about the dwindling ranks of primary-care physicians. But we need more specialists, too. There are impending shortages in fields such as oncology, cardiology, general surgery and gastroenterology.  Few Americans will tolerate not having access to a specialist in an emergency or having care rationed because of a limited number of skilled physicians.

6. We have to streamline drug development and shake up the Food and Drug Administration.

Creating and producing new drug therapies in the United States is a nightmare. Regulatory hurdles, disorganization and a lack of leadership at the FDA, as well as burdensome conflict-of-interest policies, have made the drug-approval process grindingly slow. At the same time, development costs are close to $1 billion per drug.

7. We can’t fund health-care reform by cutting payments to doctors.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has proposed increasing payments to primary-care physicians by approximately 6 percent while lowering payments for many specialists, including cardiologists and oncologists, by as much as 20 to 40 percent. The American College of Cardiology estimates that 40 percent of the cardiology practices in Florida will go bankrupt.

8. We can’t forget about research.

Every modern treatment for human disease is related in some way to research at U.S. academic medical centers. However, decreased federal funding for research over the past six years has threatened to decimate a generation of young scientists and the cures they could discover.

9. Cutting reimbursements could shut some hospitals down.

It is unlikely that the homeless, the mentally ill, the substance abusers or the illegal immigrants who now receive their care in “safety net” hospitals will carry any form of health insurance.

10. We need to improve the quality of care.

The Institute of Medicine has pointed out, poor quality of care can be divided into three types: underuse of care, misuse of care and overuse of care. While eliminating misuse and overuse will decrease the cost of care, correcting problems from underuse will actually increase costs.

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I want my patients to have insurance that will pay for their care, and I want to be able to offer new medications and the most sophisticated treatment. I want to be able to give preventive care as well as to monitor patients effectively if they develop diseases. I want to be able care for my patients in their homes, and I want to offer palliative care if it becomes necessary. I want them to be able to afford all this.

In short, I want to see major reforms in health care — I just don’t want what is on the table.

Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/04/AR2009090402274.html

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The “good enough” revolution …

September 10, 2009

Wired, The Good Enough Revolution: When Cheap and Simple Is Just Fine,  08.24.09

The central premise:

The world has sped up, become more connected and a whole lot busier.

As a result, what consumers want from the products and services they buy is fundamentally changing.

We now favor flexibility over high fidelity, convenience over features, quick and dirty over slow and polished. Having it here and now is more important than having it perfect.

These changes run so deep and wide, they’re actually altering what we mean when we describe a product as “high-quality.”

Entire markets have been transformed by products that trade power or fidelity for low price, flexibility, and convenience.

Some examples …

MP3s

The music industry initially laughed off the format, because compared with the CD it sounded terrible.

What record labels and retailers failed to recognize was that although MP3 provided relatively low audio quality, it had a number of offsetting positive qualities.

By reducing the size of audio files, MP3s allowed us to get music into our computers—and, more important, onto the Internet—at a manageable size.

This in turn let us listen to, manage, and manipulate tracks on our PCs, carry thousands of songs in our pockets, purchase songs from our living rooms, and share tracks with friends and even strangers.

And as it turned out, those benefits actually mattered a lot more to music lovers than the single measure of quality we had previously applied to recorded music—fidelity.

Netbooks

On paper, netbooks might seem like crappy toys.

They have almost no storage, processing power, or graphics capability.

What they do have, though, is accessibility: Cheap, small, and light, they let you connect to the Internet from almost anywhere.

Netbook shipments were up sevenfold in the first quarter of 2009.

Kindle

Amazon’s Kindle can’t display complex graphics, and paper still has much higher resolution.

But the device does store hundreds of titles in a slim package, ensuring that you always have access to whichever Philip K. Dick tale you’re in the mood for.

The Kindle is expected to generate $310 million in revenue by the end of 2009

Kaiser Micrclinics

Instead of building a hospital in a new area, Kaiser just leases space in a strip mall, sets up a high tech office, and hires two doctors to staff it.

They cut everything they could out of the clinics: no pharmacy, no radiology. They even cut the receptionist in favor of an ATM-like kiosk where patients can check in with their Kaiser card.

Thanks to the digitization of records, patients can go to a “microclinic” for most of their needs and seamlessly transition to a hospital farther away when necessary.

What they found is that the system performs very well. Two doctors working out of a microclinic can meet 80 percent of a typical patient’s needs.

With a hi-def video conferencing add-on, members can even link to a nearby hospital for a quick consult with a specialist.

Patients would still need to travel to a full-size facility for major trauma, surgery, or access to expensive diagnostic equipment, but those are situations that arise infrequently.

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80 percent is a magic number — the famous Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 rule.

And it happens to be a recurring theme in Good Enough products: 20 percent of the effort, features, or investment often delivers 80 percent of the value to consumers.

That means you can drastically simplify a product or service in order to make it more accessible and still keep 80 percent of what users want—making it Good Enough

* * * * *

Full article:
http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-09/ff_goodenough?currentPage=all

Thanks to MSB MBA alum Mike Cirrito for the lead

* * * * *

Sauce for for the goose, sauce for the gander … A Doctor's Plan for Legal Industry Reform

September 9, 2009

Ken’s Take: A very clever juxtaposition that gives the health care debate in a different perspective … 

* * * * *

WSJ, A Doctor’s Plan for Legal Industry Reform, Sept. 3, 2009

Since committees of lawyers are deciding what doctors should and should not do, perhaps physician committees can decide whether lawyers are necessary in any given situation.  Doctors sholuld take on the important duty of controlling and regulating lawyers.

Since most of what lawyers do is repetitive boilerplate or pushing paper, physicians would have no problem dictating what is appropriate for attorneys.

After all, we physicians know much more about legal practice than lawyers do about medicine.

Following are highlights of a proposed bill authorizing the dismantling of the current framework of law practice, i.e. “reforming” it:

Contingency fees will be  … eventually outlawed. This will put legal rewards back into the pockets of the deserving—the public and the aggrieved parties. Slick lawyers taking their “cut” smacks of a bookie operation. Attorneys will be permitted to keep up to 3% in contingency cases, the remainder going into a pool for poor people.

•  Each potential legal situation will be assigned a relative value, and charges limited to this amount. Program participation and acceptance of this amount is mandatory, regardless of the number of hours spent on the matter. Government schedules of flat fees for each service, analogous to medicine’s Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), will be issued. For example, any divorce will have a set fee of, say, $1,000, regardless of its simplicity or complexity. This will eliminate shady hourly billing. Niggling fees such as $2 per page photocopied or faxed would disappear. Who else nickels-and-dimes you while at the same time charging hundreds of dollars per hour? I’m surprised lawyers don’t tack shipping and handling onto their bills.

Legal “death panels. Over 75? You will not be entitled to legal care for any matter. Why waste money on those who are only going to die soon? We can decrease utilization, save money and unclog the courts simultaneously. Grandma, you’re on your own.

Ration legal care. One may need to wait months to consult an attorney. Despite a perceived legal need, physician review panels or government bureaucrats may deem advice unnecessary. Possibly one may not get representation before court dates or deadlines. But that’ s tough: What do you want for “free”?

Physician controlled legal review. This is potentially the most exciting reform, with doctors leading committees for determining the necessity of all legal procedures and the fairness of attorney fees. What a wonderful way for doctors to get even with the sharks attempting to eviscerate the practice of medicine.

Discourage/eliminate specialization. Legal specialists with extra training and experience charge more money, contributing to increased costs of legal care, making it unaffordable for many. This reform will guarantee a selection of mediocre, unmotivated attorneys but should help slow rising legal costs. Big shot under indictment? Too bad. Under reform you too may have to go to the government legal shop for advice.

Electronic legal records. We should enter the digital age and computerize and centralize legal records nationwide. All files must be in a standard, preferably inconvenient, format and must be available to government agencies. A single database of judgments, court records, client files, etc. will decrease legal expenses. Anyone with Internet access will be able to search the database, eliminating unjustifiable fees charged by law firms for supposedly proprietary information, while fostering transparency. It will enable consumers to dump their clunker attorneys and transfer records easily.

Ban legal advertisements. Catchy phone numbers such as 1-800-LAWYERS would be seized by the government and repurposed for reporting unscrupulous attorneys.

New government oversight. Government overhead to manage the legal system will include a cabinet secretary, commissioners, ombudsmen, auditors, assistants, czars and departments.

Collect data about the supply of and demand for attorneys.Create a commission to study the diversity and geographic distribution of attorneys, with power to stipulate and enforce corrective actions to right imbalances. The more bureaucracy the better. One can never have too many eyes watching these sleazy sneaks.

Lawyer Reduction Act. A self-explanatory bill that not only decreases the number of law students, but also arbitrarily removes 3,200 attorneys from practice each year. Textbook addition by subtraction.

Enthusiastically embracing the above legal changes can serve as a “teachable moment” and will go a long way toward giving the lawyers who run Congress a taste of their own medicine.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574387021307651050.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

* * * * *

Sauce for for the goose, sauce for the gander … A Doctor’s Plan for Legal Industry Reform

September 9, 2009

Ken’s Take: A very clever juxtaposition that gives the health care debate in a different perspective … 

* * * * *

WSJ, A Doctor’s Plan for Legal Industry Reform, Sept. 3, 2009

Since committees of lawyers are deciding what doctors should and should not do, perhaps physician committees can decide whether lawyers are necessary in any given situation.  Doctors sholuld take on the important duty of controlling and regulating lawyers.

Since most of what lawyers do is repetitive boilerplate or pushing paper, physicians would have no problem dictating what is appropriate for attorneys.

After all, we physicians know much more about legal practice than lawyers do about medicine.

Following are highlights of a proposed bill authorizing the dismantling of the current framework of law practice, i.e. “reforming” it:

Contingency fees will be  … eventually outlawed. This will put legal rewards back into the pockets of the deserving—the public and the aggrieved parties. Slick lawyers taking their “cut” smacks of a bookie operation. Attorneys will be permitted to keep up to 3% in contingency cases, the remainder going into a pool for poor people.

•  Each potential legal situation will be assigned a relative value, and charges limited to this amount. Program participation and acceptance of this amount is mandatory, regardless of the number of hours spent on the matter. Government schedules of flat fees for each service, analogous to medicine’s Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), will be issued. For example, any divorce will have a set fee of, say, $1,000, regardless of its simplicity or complexity. This will eliminate shady hourly billing. Niggling fees such as $2 per page photocopied or faxed would disappear. Who else nickels-and-dimes you while at the same time charging hundreds of dollars per hour? I’m surprised lawyers don’t tack shipping and handling onto their bills.

Legal “death panels. Over 75? You will not be entitled to legal care for any matter. Why waste money on those who are only going to die soon? We can decrease utilization, save money and unclog the courts simultaneously. Grandma, you’re on your own.

Ration legal care. One may need to wait months to consult an attorney. Despite a perceived legal need, physician review panels or government bureaucrats may deem advice unnecessary. Possibly one may not get representation before court dates or deadlines. But that’ s tough: What do you want for “free”?

Physician controlled legal review. This is potentially the most exciting reform, with doctors leading committees for determining the necessity of all legal procedures and the fairness of attorney fees. What a wonderful way for doctors to get even with the sharks attempting to eviscerate the practice of medicine.

Discourage/eliminate specialization. Legal specialists with extra training and experience charge more money, contributing to increased costs of legal care, making it unaffordable for many. This reform will guarantee a selection of mediocre, unmotivated attorneys but should help slow rising legal costs. Big shot under indictment? Too bad. Under reform you too may have to go to the government legal shop for advice.

Electronic legal records. We should enter the digital age and computerize and centralize legal records nationwide. All files must be in a standard, preferably inconvenient, format and must be available to government agencies. A single database of judgments, court records, client files, etc. will decrease legal expenses. Anyone with Internet access will be able to search the database, eliminating unjustifiable fees charged by law firms for supposedly proprietary information, while fostering transparency. It will enable consumers to dump their clunker attorneys and transfer records easily.

Ban legal advertisements. Catchy phone numbers such as 1-800-LAWYERS would be seized by the government and repurposed for reporting unscrupulous attorneys.

New government oversight. Government overhead to manage the legal system will include a cabinet secretary, commissioners, ombudsmen, auditors, assistants, czars and departments.

Collect data about the supply of and demand for attorneys.Create a commission to study the diversity and geographic distribution of attorneys, with power to stipulate and enforce corrective actions to right imbalances. The more bureaucracy the better. One can never have too many eyes watching these sleazy sneaks.

Lawyer Reduction Act. A self-explanatory bill that not only decreases the number of law students, but also arbitrarily removes 3,200 attorneys from practice each year. Textbook addition by subtraction.

Enthusiastically embracing the above legal changes can serve as a “teachable moment” and will go a long way toward giving the lawyers who run Congress a taste of their own medicine.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574387021307651050.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

* * * * *

The Power of Free (Again) … In the Air, Wi-Fi Gets a Ho-Hum Reception

September 9, 2009

Ken’s Take: A nice example of PVP concepts in action: (1) The recurring power of free – charge even a minimal amount and demand falls – a lot.  (2) Differentiated pricing – in this case, by distance.  (3) Morphing from “by the drink” to subscriptions.

* * * * *

WSJ, In the Air, Wi-Fi Gets a Ho-Hum Reception, Aug. 27, 2009

More than 500 airliners are flying around the U.S. with wireless Internet access up and running, but airlines are finding that the technology that they hope will bring new revenues may be more like in-flight meals: People gobbled up food when it was free, but they find it a lot less appetizing when they have to pay.

Airlines and in-flight Wi-Fi providers say usage has been strong and is growing as more travelers sign up for the service and find it on more flights.

But usage drops off considerably when travelers must pay for the service.

Alaska Airlines even tested charging just $1. The result: a lot fewer laptops, BlackBerrys and iPhones signed on.

Most U.S. airlines with Wi-Fi are using a service called Gogo from Aircell LLC, which built a network of cellular towers across the country.

Aircell is already testing lower prices and rolling out longer service plans. The service is priced now at $12.95 for flights longer than three hours; $9.95 for flights under three hours but more than 90 minutes, and $5.95 for flights shorter than 90 minutes.

Usage is higher on long-haul flights and has steadily increased as more travelers register for the service—making it easier to sign on during subsequent flights without entering credit-card numbers and other information.

Virgin America says about 12% to 15% of passengers across its fleet are using the service. That’s likely higher than industry averages since Virgin America has a high proportion of cross-country flights in its schedule—plus, the airline offers power ports at all seats, making it easier to use Wi-Fi.

On average, 8% to 10% of travelers need to pay for Internet access for the service providers to be profitable within five years. That may be hard to do because a large percentage of U.S. domestic flights are shorter than two hours, when travelers are least likely to pay for Web access in the air.

For many business travelers, staying online will make hours in the air more productive (and rob some road warriors of a respite from electronic leashes).

Aircell, which is adding about 100 planes a month, thinks pricing will move more toward subscriptions, with travelers buying packages of five flights or more and companies directly buying the service for their business travelers.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203706604574374571364228440.html

* * * * *

Follow-up: An irony of SEC fines … double jeopardy for shareholders ?

September 8, 2009

In an Aug. 26 post, we raised the question of whether it was double jeopardy for shareholders if the SEC to fines a company for misleading or defrauding its shareholders.
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/08/26/an-irony-of-sec-fines-double-jeopardy-for-shareholders/

Apparently, the courts are asking the same question …  coincidence?

* * * * *

WSJ, The BofA Bonus Show, Sept.4, 2009 

A judge is doing a public service by exposing what looks like a drive-by political shooting.

The SEC brought a civil lawsuit, alleging that BofA had misled investors by failing to disclose certian Merrill Lynch bonuses in the proxy documents it sent to shareholders in November, prior to the takeover vote. A beleaguered BofA in early August settled with the SEC for $33 million, neither admitting nor denying wrongdoing.

In pursuing BofA, the SEC’s broke with its policy of pursuing individuals, rather than companies, in cases of alleged fraud against investors. The SEC had adopted that policy under former SEC Chairman Christopher Cox for the sensible reason that fining a company essentially penalizes shareholders twice. “The same shareholders who were deceived in the first place” pay again out of the “corporate treasury.”  To add injury to insult, in this case the shareholders are also U.S. taxpayers, who have bailed out BofA to the tune of $45 billion.

The SEC’s defense is that it would be too difficult to go after BofA management, since individuals will claim their decisions were advised by corporate lawyers and are protected by attorney-client privilege. In other words, the SEC enforcement staff realizes it is easier to wrench a settlement out of a politically vulnerable company than it is to build a case against the responsible individuals.

The judge declared the SEC’s decision to go after BofA shareholders rather than individuals “at war with common sense” and has refused to endorse it.

How this kind of enforcement deters fraud or helps investors is a mystery.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574387044194076168.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Marketing focus: “What is the bigger job this brand does in a consumer’s life?”

September 8, 2009

Many big marketers are cutting back on ad spending this year … total measured ad spending for the first six months of ’09 has dropped 14.4% compared with the first six months of 2008.

But this is not how the companies that sell basic supermarket staples the American public purchases by the palletful are going about marketing in this recession.

For example, General Mills … is spending 16% more on marketing than it did in ’08. “In an environment where you have consumers going to the grocery store more often and thinking more about meals at home,we think that is a great environment for brand building, to remind consumers about our products.”

General Mills purveys homey comforts—Cheerios, Wheaties, Progresso Soup, Hamburger Helper.  It does  intensive research that aims at wreathing a kind of grandiosity of purpose around everyday products: “What is the bigger job this brand does in a consumer’s life?”  This question is threaded through an exhaustive process—including videotaped interviews with key customers — that ultimately boils the marketing message of key brands down to simple story lines. For Hamburger Helper, it’s “One Pound. One Pan. One Happy Family.”

General Mills has long built evocative stories around simple products … believing that  “marketing is a business in which the best story that’s most aggressively deployed wins”.

excerpted from Business Week, How General Mills’ Marketing Pays Off, July 16, 2009
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_30/b4140067532922.htm

* * * * *

Shocker: Car dealers “fully price” during C4C landrush …

September 4, 2009

From the WSJ:

The federal “cash for clunkers” program pushed auto sales to their highest levels in over a year. But.analysts say the boost is likely temporary and some anticipate falloff.

Auto sales for August were between 13 and million on a  seasonally adjusted annual rate .

For comparison, auto sales regularly hit 16 million a month before the recession, they have since dipped, hitting a low in February of 9.1 million.

Even within August, the numbers point to a pullback. On a weekly basis, dealers sold cars at an annualized rate of over 19 million in the first week of the clunkers program, followed by weeks of car sales at rates of 12 million.

In the final week of August, after the program ended, sales slumped to eight million.

And, according to Edmunds.com, the clunkers program caused “unintended consequences”, including higher car prices and lower levels of supply.

Dealers raised their prices on Toyota Corollas, for example, by approximately $445 while the clunkers program was in effect. Many dealers were charging sticker prices (or more) for hybrids.

WSJ, Next for Auto Sector, Post-Clunker Hangover, Sept 1, 2009 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125175596718373969.html

* * * * *

TakeAway: There’s a big difference between unintentional and un-anticipatable – neither the pull-up of sales nor the jacked up prices should surprise anybody.

* * * * *

Blue Nile starts chasing women …

September 4, 2009

Ken’s Take: I watched with interest as my sons and their friends shopped for engagement rings online – all from Blue Nile.  Struck me – an old-schooler — as a risky online purchase.  But, they had great experiences – nice rocks (I think), secure delivery, and fast turnaround for resizing.  Blue Nile seemed to be gaining some traction twenty-something guys, and an acceptable brand image with the ladies.

* * * * *

WSJ, Blue Nile Gets Makeover to Please Ladies,  Sept. 2, 2009

Blue Nile – an online jeweler founded in 1999 and IPO’d in 2004 — sold $295 million in jewelry last year, in a recession ravaged jewelry industry.   While data on the diamond industry is incomplete, Blue Nile estimates  its market share is roughly 4.5% to 5.5%.  

Retooling to combat slowing grow, the company is unveiling a major overhaul of its Web site to broaden its appeal, especially to women.  The changes are intended to make the experience more akin to window shopping.

But, it faces the tricky task of trying to make improvements without losing core customers.

The vast majority of those who buy rings and necklaces from Blue Nile are men, drawn to the extra information, control and discounts — they get by shopping online instead of at a high-pressure jewelry counter.

Yet most Blue Nile purchases are given to women, whom the retailer would like to have a more premium view of its brand.

Blue Nile also rebuilt a system for shoppers to create custom engagement rings — its largest business — based on criteria they can adjust with sliding scales while watching an image of the product evolve on the screen.

Shopping is now largely contained within a single page, to cut down on the confusion and tedium of clicking back and forth.

Blue Nile says that it has taken on a redesign now because of the market’s relative weakness, which has made competitors less likely to expand.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125176820957074661.html

* * * * *

About your FDIC insured bank accounts …

September 4, 2009

Another lesson that federal guarantees aren’t free:

WSJ, The Coming Deposit Insurance Bailout, Sept. 1, 2009

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported late last week that the fund that insures some $4.5 trillion in U.S. bank deposits fell to $10.4 billion at the end of June, as the list of failing banks continues to grow. The fund was $45.2 billion a year ago.

The FDIC has since had to buttress the fund with a $5.6 billion special levy on top of the regular fees that banks already pay for the federal guarantee. Everyone now assumes the FDIC will hit banks with yet another special insurance fee in anticipation of even more bank losses.

Earlier this year they quietly asked Congress to provide up to $500 billion in Treasury loans to repay depositors.

84 banks have already failed this year, and … the FDIC said it had 416 banks on its problem list at the end of June, up from 305 only three months earlier. The total assets of banks on the problem list was nearly $300 billion, and more of these assets are turning bad faster than banks can put aside reserves to account for them.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair continues to say that deposits will be covered up to the $250,000 per account insurance limit , and of course she’s right. But we wish she’d force Congress—and the American public—to face up to the reality of what deposit insurance costs. Amid the panic last year, Congress raised the deposit limit from $100,000 to $250,000.

The $250,000 limit was supposed to expire at the end of 2009, but in May Congress extended it through 2013, and no one who understands politics thinks it will return to $100,000. The rising bank losses mean that the FDIC’s ratio of funds to deposits is down to 0.22%, far below its obligation under the insurance statute to keep it between 1.15% and 1.50%.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574385072164619640.html 

* * * * *

Hey, Southwest … what happened to free luv?

September 3, 2009

Warning: Ken is hacked !  Really hacked!

Last week, SWA got nailed for using uncertified maintenance parts on its 737s. Bad news, but I can live with that … you gotta take some risks, right?

But, this SWA policy change is personal since (a) I’m cheap and (b) I’ve gotten the “fast-trigger online check in” down to a science. 

I just may cancel my SWA Freq Flyer credit card …

* * * * *

What has Ken so upset ?

Southwest Airlines will begin charging $10 to some passengers looking to board its aircraft before others.

For the extra $10 fee each way, passengers can reserve their boarding spot while buying their ticket.

Under the Dallas-based low-fare carrier’s current policy, passengers can begin to check in 24 hours prior to their flight. Passengers who check in the earliest get to board first.

A Southwest  spokeswoman  said the new option allows passengers to not have to worry about checking themselves in.

While many airlines have been charging passengers fees for beverages and baggage, Southwest has aggressively marketed its “no frills” consumer policies to set itself apart. What sets this option apart?  Southwest’s passengers have a choice of paying the $10 fee.

“These are opportunities that customers can have the option of taking advantage of, instead of being forced to pay the additional fee,” she added.

Washington Business Journal, Southwest Airlines adds $10 fee to reserve boarding spot, September 2, 2009
http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/08/31/daily56.html?ed=2009-09-02&ana=e_du_pub

* * * * *

Cash-for-Clunkers: The “Re-Leveraging Effect”

September 3, 2009

Bottom line: the C4C program jacked $3 billion from about 100 million tax payers, redistributed it to 750,000 clinker owners (some tax payers, some not), and leveraged the rebates dollar-for-dollar into $3 billion in new consumer debt.

* * * * *

Talk with friends over the weekend turned to the C4C program … specifically, how many rebate-takers were driving clunkers because they couldn’t afford a fancy new ride.  Consider the implications if that’s true.

Running some back-of-the-envelope numbers, it’s likely that C4C buyers took on debt (auto loans) equal or greater than the tax payer provided rebates.

Here’s the logic, using rough, top-of-mind assumptions:

Assume that a clunker qualifies for a $4,000 rebate, that the clinker owner applies the rebate to a new $24,000 car, and that $20,000 balance is rolled into a shiny new auto loan. (Note: no money down – just like the home deals that got us into this mess).

Assume the $20,000 is financed at 6% over a 4 year term.  The monthly payment is just a bit under $500.

So, the clunker-trader walked into the showroom with a clunker and no auto loan payments. 

He rides out with a cool new ride and a new $500 monthly payment.  Hmmm.

Assume that 1 in 4 clunker-traders are rich folks who pay cash, and that the other 3 take out auto loans.

Project the numbers to the whole program (calcs below) … and PRESTO – the C4C program jacked $3 billion from about 100 million tax payers, redistributed it to 750,000 clinker owners (some tax payers, some not), and leveraged the rebates dollar-for-dollar into $3 billion in new consumer debt.

Frankly, I’m not sure if that’s good or bad.  Maybe the stimulative effects are worth it.

But, it begs the question: isn’t this how we got into this mess in the first place?

* * * * *

image

copyright K.E. Homa 2009, All Rights Reserved

* * * * *

Throw the bums out … 57% say “get rid of the entire Congress”

September 2, 2009

A recent Rasmussen survey asked likely voters:

“Suppose you could vote this fall on whether to get rid of the entire Congress and start over again.
Would you vote to keep the entire Congress or get rid of the entire Congress? “

The survey said:

25% Keep the entire Congress
57% Get rid of the entire Congress
18% Not sure

70% of independents said they would vote to replace all of the elected politicians in the House and Senate.

* * * * *

Some drill down diagnostics:

74% trust their own economic judgment more than Congress’.

67% are NOT Confident that Congress knows what its doing on economy

59% think that members of Congress are overpaid

54% do NOT think that members of Congress understand legislation that they vote on

42% think that a group selected from the phone book would do a better job

* * * * *

Interesting background:

More than 90% of Congress routinely gets reelected every two years.

When the Constitution was written, the nation’s founders expected that there would be a 50% turnover in the House of Representatives every election cycle since that was the experience they witnessed in state legislatures at the time.

For well over 100 years after the Constitution was adopted, the turnover averaged in the 50% range as expected.

In the 20th century, starting with the New Deal era, turnover began to decline.

In 1968, congressional turnover fell to single digits for the first time ever, and it has remained very low ever since.

* * * * *

Source: Rasmussen, “57% Would Like to Replace Entire Congress”,  August 30, 2009:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/57_would_like_to_replace_entire_congress

* * * * *

No one should have to move from NJ to Kentucky …

September 2, 2009

We lived in Kentucky for 2 years and enjoyed our time there, but …

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ:The Competition Cure, Aug 23, 2009

In places like New Jersey, the annual cost of an individual plan for a 25-year-old male in 2006 was $5,880.

A similar plan in Kentucky,  cost less than $1,000 in 2006.

The higher cost of medical services in the Garden State only explains a small part of the difference.

The main reason: New Jersey is highly regulated, with costly mandated benefits and guaranteed access to insurance.

Affordability would improve if consumers could escape states where each policy is loaded with mandates.

“If consumers do not want expensive ‘Cadillac’ health plans that pay for acupuncture, fertility treatments or hairpieces, they could buy from insurers in a state that does not mandate such benefits”

If consumers can’t escape heavily mandated states,  “risk selection” is a problem.

As more healthy people opt out of health insurance because it is too expensive relative to what they consume, the pool transforms into a group of older, sicker people. Prices go higher still and more healthy people flee.

High-mandate states are in what experts call an “adverse selection death spiral.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203550604574360923109310680.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

* * * * *

The Rx: let health insurance policies be sold across state lines … in effect, working around state mandates and letting folks buy only the coverage they want.

Note: Like tort reform, ObamaCare doesn’t include the selling of policies across state lines.

* * * * *

Mr. Dow and President Obama … hmmmm

September 1, 2009

Earlier in the month, I posted that:

I think the recent stock market run-up is largely attributable to Pres. Obama’s declining approval ratings … and the numbers seem to corroborate the conclusion.

https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/whats-driving-the-stock-market-higher-heres-an-analysis-you-wont-see-on-cnbc/

A team of of crack Gallup analysts has concluded that Presidential Approval shows no clear relationship to the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Glancing at Gallup’s own chart, I ask: “Say what ?”

image

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122567/Presidential-Approval-Dow-No-Clear-Relationship.aspx

* * * * *

Health reform without malpractice tort reform … get serious.

September 1, 2009

Excerpted from IBD: Tort Reform Is Key To Health Reform, August 24, 2009

Many lawmakers and analysts still stubbornly insist that medical liability lawsuits do not contribute significantly to rising health care costs.

A 2006 Harvard School of Public Health study found that 40% of medical malpractice lawsuits filed in America each year were “without merit.”

Nonetheless, defending against such lawsuits imposes costs on doctors, hospitals and insurers that invariably are passed on to health care consumers.

Beyond the obvious costs of litigation, more subtle costs related to the practice of “defensive medicine” are contributing to runaway health care inflation.

How much? In a Massachusetts Medical Society survey published last November, 83% of physicians cited the fear of being sued in their decisions to practice defensive medicine.

On average, 18% to 28% of tests, procedures, referrals and consultations and 13% of hospitalizations were ordered to avoid lawsuits. All of this adds at least $200 billion to annual health care costs.

* * * * *

President Obama should reconsider his stated opposition to limiting non-economic damages in medical liability litigation.

The president and Congress should also consider additional liability reforms, such as medical courts, administrative compensation programs, “early offers” and “safe harbors” for physicians who practice in compliance with evidenced-based clinical guidelines.

If comprehensive health care reforms are to succeed, they must include liability reform.

Certainly real victims of negligence must be fairly compensated, but public policy must discourage litigation that abuses our civil justice system and makes health care less accessible and more expensive.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=336004677519666

* * * * *

Inside that magazine: a video clip … hmmm, interesting idea.

September 1, 2009

Ken’s Take: An interesting play.  Nice use of technology to drag print into the current century.  CBS should get nice buzz. My bet: still too expensive for it to become a common promo device … but, costs keep coming down.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Video is invading a new medium: print. Aug 20, 2009

In a marketing stunt to promote its fall TV series, CBS is inserting thousands of tiny screens in copies of Entertainment Weekly.

The screens measure two and a quarter inches diagonally and play about 40 minutes of clips from new and old CBS shows.

The reader/viewer can push a spot on the cardboard insert that holds the screen and watch a clip of the sitcom “Two and a Half Men.” Push another to see a preview of the new crime-investigation spinoff “NCIS: Los Angeles.” Another delivers an ad for PepsiCo Inc., which is helping fund the promotion.

The player is much like the chips that play music in some greeting cards and magazine ads and is rechargeable.

This isn’t the first time magazines and technology have teamed.

In 2005, CBS embedded People magazine with singing sound chips to promote an Elvis Presley miniseries.

Last year, the cover of October’s Esquire magazine splashed blazes of electronic ink … that flashed with messages and an illusion of a car on the road.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125073451546645129.html?mod=djemMM

* * * * *

A stock-market crash is akin to an automobile crash … and other ways to cope with losing money

August 31, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ: The Mistakes We Make—and Why We Make Them. Aug. 23, 2009

Most investors are intelligent people, neither irrational nor insane.

But behavioral finance tells us we are also normal, with brains that are often full and emotions that are often overflowing. And that means we are normal smart at times, and normal stupid at others.

The trick, therefore, is to learn to increase our ratio of smart behavior to stupid. And since we cannot (thank goodness) turn ourselves into computer-like people, we need to find tools to help us act smart even when our thinking and feelings tempt us to be stupid.

  • Investors tend to think about each stock we purchase in a vacuum, distinct from other stocks in our portfolio. We are happy to realize “paper” gains in each stock quickly, but procrastinate when it comes to realizing losses.Why?

    Because while regret over a paper loss stings, we can console ourselves in the hope that, in time, the stock will roar back into a gain. By contrast, all hope would be extinguished if we sold the stock and realized our loss. We would feel the searing pain of regret. So we do pretty much anything to avoid that pain—including holding on to the stock long after we should have sold it. Indeed. 

    Successful professional traders … establish “sell disciplines” that force them to realize losses even when they know that the pain of regret is sure to follow.

  • Goldman Sachs is faster than you. individual investors should never enter a race against faster runners by trading frequently on every little bit of news (or rumors) … Instead, simply buy and hold a diversified portfolio. Banal? Yes. Obvious? Yes. Typically followed? Sadly, no. Your ability to predict next year’s investment winner is no better than your ability to predict next week’s lottery winner. A diversified portfolio of many investments might make you a loser during a year or even a decade, but a concentrated portfolio of few investments might ruin you forever.
  • Wealth makes us happy, but wealth increases make us even happier.John found out today that his wealth fell from $5 million to $3 million. Jane found out that her wealth increased from $1 million to $2 million. John has more wealth than Jane, but Jane is likely to be happier. This simple insight underlies Prospect Theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Happiness from wealth comes from gains of wealth more than it comes from levels of wealth. While gains of wealth bring happiness, losses of wealth bring misery.
  • A stock-market crash is akin to an automobile crash. We check ourselves. Is anyone bleeding? Can we drive the car to a garage, or do we need a tow truck?

    We must check ourselves after a market crash as well. Suppose that you divide your portfolio into mental accounts: one for your retirement income, one for college education of your grandchildren, and one for bequests to your children.

    Now you can see that the terrible market has wrecked your bequest mental account and dented your education mental account, but left your retirement mental account without a scratch. You still have all the money you need for food and shelter, and you even have the money for a trip around the country in a new RV.

    You might want to affix to it a new version of the old bumper sticker: “I’ve only lost my children’s inheritance.”

  • Ask yourself whether the market damaged your financial security or only deflated your ego. If the market has damaged your financial security, then you’ll have to save more, or spend less.But don’t worry about your ego. In time it will inflate to its former size.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204313604574326223160094150.html

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Final Notice: You owe $38,225.04 … actually, a little more than that by the time you read this.

August 31, 2009

Kinda says it all, doesn’t it ?

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image

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For realtime Federal Debt tracking:
U.S. National Debt Clock
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

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How Facebook Ruins Friendships

August 31, 2009

Ken’s Take: A increasingly common view, not limited to old-schoolers …

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ:  How Facebook Ruins Friendships, Aug. 26, 2009 

Here’s where you and I went wrong: We took our friendship online. First we began communicating more by email than by phone. Then we switched to “instant messaging” or “texting.” We “friended” each other on Facebook, and began communicating by “tweeting” our thoughts—in 140 characters or less—via Twitter.

All this online social networking was supposed to make us closer. And in some ways it has. Thanks to the Internet, many of us have gotten back in touch with friends from high school and college, shared old and new photos, and become better acquainted with some people we might never have grown close to offline.

But there’s a danger here, too. If we’re not careful, our online interactions can hurt our real-life relationships.

* * * * *

“You’re a narcissist”

I’m tired of loved ones who claim they are too busy to pick up the phone, or even write a decent email, yet spend hours on social-media sites, uploading photos of their trips and parties, posting quirky one-liners or sending coded messages via song lyrics.

The problem is much greater than which tools we use to communicate. It’s what we are actually saying that’s really mucking up our relationships.

Amidst all this heightened chatter, we’re not saying much that’s interesting, folks.  “Why is your life so frickin’ important and entertaining that we need to know? It’s called narcissism.”

* * * * *

“This is something I just didn’t need to know”

Consider, for example, how people you know often seem different online—not just gussied up or more polished, but bolder, too, displaying sides of their personalities you have never seen before.

In all that information you’re posting about your life—your vacation, your kids, your promotions at work, even that margarita you just drank—someone is bound to find something to envy or hate or use against you.

“Facebook prolongs the period it takes to get over someone, because you have an open window into their life, whether you want to or not … You see their updates, their pictures and their relationship status.”

Facebook can also be a mecca for passive-aggressive behavior. “Suddenly, things you wouldn’t say out loud in conversation are OK to say because you’re sitting behind a computer screen.”

* * * * *

What to Do

First, watch your own behavior, asking yourself before you post anything: “Is this something I’d want someone to tell me?”

Second, remember that the world is watching. “Is this really something I want the world to know about me?”

Third,  positively reward others, responding only when they post something interesting, ignoring them when they are boring or obnoxious. (Commenting negatively will only start a very public war.)

[Fourth, keep your circle of “friends” small,.  Think about limiting it to, well, your real friends.”]

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204660604574370450465849142.html

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Pres Obama makes history again … well, almost.

August 31, 2009

According to the LA Times …

The president’s job approval rating slipped to 50% in the latest Gallup Poll, reaching that point more quickly than all but two of his predecessors did.

President Ford slipped below 50% in his third month; President Clinton hit the mark in his fourth month.

It took President Eisenhower five years to fall below 50%. It took Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush each about three years. It took Presidents Johnson and Nixon more than two years.

Full article:LA Times, Obama’s job approval rating falls to new low, Aug 28,2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-poll28-2009aug28,0,7306834.story

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image

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

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Cutting to the chase on death panels and living wills …

August 27, 2009

Good insight from Charles Krauthammer:

“My own living will, which I have always considered more a literary than legal document, basically says: “I’ve had some good innings, thank you. If I have anything so much as a hangnail, pull the plug.”

I’ve never taken it terribly seriously because unless I’m comatose or demented, they’re going to ask me at the time whether or not I want to be resuscitated if I go into cardiac arrest. The paper I signed years ago will mean nothing.

And if I’m totally out of it, my family will decide, with little or no reference to my living will.

Except for the demented orphan, the living will is quite beside the point.

The one time it really is essential is if you think your fractious family will be only too happy to hasten your demise to get your money.

That’s what the law is good at — protecting you from murder and theft.

But that is a far cry from assuring a peaceful and willed death

Excerpted from: The Truth About Death Counseling, August 21, 2009
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/08/21/lets_be_honest_about_death_counseling_97982.html

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“To know where I stand, look at my advisers”

August 27, 2009

Ken’s Take: Candidate Obama frequently said that folks can partially evaluate the kind of president that he’s be by looking at the advisers surrounding him.  Usually, the statement was in the context of the economy, and the advisers were people like Warren Buffett and Paul Volcker.

What if the rule rule is applied to his health care advisers?  Gives a glimpse as to how healthcare rationing will work under ObamaCare.

Some may find the principles appropriate.  Some may find them scary.

I’m in the latter group.

* * * * *

President Obama & His Health Care Advisors:

Last February funds were slipped into the stimulus bill to implement Obamacare by creating two England-type rationing boards. Staffing for this plan is in place already. Below are the players:

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel

  • Named to two key positions: health-policy advisor at the OMB and a member of the Federal Council on Comparative Effectiveness Research.
  • In 1996, he wrote health services should not be guaranteed to persons “who are irreversibly prevented from being or becoming participating citizens,” specifically mentioning patients with dementia.
  • On March 19, Emanuel was appointed to the Federal Coordinating Council on Comparative Effectiveness Research to begin the design of a federal system for withdrawing care from those deemed unworthy of treatment. Emanuel describes his method of “Complete Lives System” which “produces a priority curve on which individuals aged between roughly 15 and 40 years get the most substantial chance, whereas the youngest and oldest people get chances that are attenuated.”

Dr. Peter Singer

  • He espouses a “quality-of-life” ethic that is contrary to the traditional Judeo-Christian “sanctity-of-life” ethic.
  • He maintains that those who suffer handicaps have less quality-of-life, and are thus less deserving of healthcare.
  • He argues that Individuals with an “insufficiently developed consciousness” actually fall below the plane of personhood. For example, with a Down syndrome baby parents should be free to kill the child up to 2 years after birth. He rationalizes that because newborn humans lack morally significant properties, their destruction is in no way intrinsically wrong.
  • In the first edition of his Practical Ethics he stated that “not … everything the Nazis did was horrendous; we cannot condemn euthanasia just because the Nazis did it … The notion that human life is sacred just because it’s human is medieval.”

Dr. David Blumenthal

Named the national coordinator for health-information technology

He  recommends slowing medical innovation and research to control health spending.

He advocates that doctors will be compelled to take “advantage of embedded clinical decision support” (a euphemism for computers instructing doctors) for “appropriate and cost effective care.”

* * * * *

Source:
http://www.defendyourhealthcare.us/

For glimpse into “health insurance portability”, look at COBRA’s strangle hold …

August 26, 2009

OK, everybody seems to agree that an employee should be able to take his / her healthcare insurance with them if they change jobs or lose their jobs.  It’s called “portability”.  That way, no worry about discontinuous coverage or those pesky pre-existing conditions.

Not so fast.

Yeah, on the surface, portability provides coverage continuity.  But, it may be more apparent than real.

Getting the insurance companies to keep people in the group pools is one thing.  Paying the premiums is another – especially since the former employer won’t be paying the bulk of the premiums.

For a dose of reality, consider COBRA.

Companies (really, their insurance companies) are required by the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act 0f 1986 (COBRA) to offer departing employees a chance to keep medical insurance if the laid-off workers pay their own premiums.

But, only 1 in 10 departing employees take the COBRA coverage.

Why?

The company stops paying towards the insurance, the individual has to pay the full amount – plus, usually a small administrative adder.

The resulting premiums are high … very high … beyond the reach of most departing employees.

Uh-oh.

 

image

Business Week, Why Being Laid Off Is Tougher These Days, July 30, 2009
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_32/b4142061715525.htm

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COBRA details:
http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/pdf/cobraemployee.pdf

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An irony of SEC fines … double jeopardy for shareholders ?

August 26, 2009

The story

Gotcha: “B of A to pay $33M fine over Merrill bonuses”

On August 3,  the Securities and Exchange Commission filed charges  against Bank of America for misleading investors about billions of dollars in bonuses paid to top executives at Merrill Lynch following its purchase of the brokerage giant.

The SEC simultaneously announced that it would settle with the Charlotte, N.C.-based lender, who will pay a penalty of $33 million as a result.

Regulators alleged that Bank of America failed to disclose plans to as much as $5.8 billion in bonuses for fiscal year 2008 in its proxy statement. Instead, Bank of America told shareholders that Merrill had agreed not to pay year-end performance bonuses, according to the SEC.

“Failing to disclose that a struggling company will pay out billions of dollars in performance bonuses obviously violates that duty and warrants the significant financial penalty imposed by today’s settlement,” Robert Khuzami, Director of the SEC’s division of enforcement, said in a statement.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/03/news/companies/bank_of_america_sec/index.htm?postversion=2009080315

The Question 

Who really pays fines imposed by the SEC?

Think about it …

B of A misleads shareholders by failing to disclose material information.

Shareholders lose money as B of A stock drops.

SEC fines B of A for misleading shareholders.

B of A pays a fine to the SEC.

Where did the fine’s funds come from?

You guessed it, shareholder’s equity.

So, in the final analysis, shareholders pay a fine for having been mislead.

… and I thought double jeopardy was illegal.

Hmmm.

Note: This one is even more interesting since taxpayers own a chunk of B of A.

So, taxpayers are paying a fine to themselves.

Our government at work …

 

* * * * *

Raise your hand if you want to pay $850 higher health insurance premiums to cover in vitro fertilization ?

August 25, 2009

Some interesting factoids from a noted Harvard professor …

* * * * *

Through the Medicare and Medicaid programs and state government regulations, it sets the prices paid to providers, determines who is covered for what in its insurance plans, and requires that certain benefits are included in insurance policies.

But, some consumers may not want expensive ‘Cadillac’ health plans that pay for acupuncture, fertility treatments or hairpieces …

The government of Massachusetts, for example, requires 52 benefits, including in vitro fertilization, a benefit that raises the price of every family’s health insurance by $850 or so.

But, some consumers may not want expensive ‘Cadillac’ health plans that pay for acupuncture, fertility treatments or hairpieces …

* * * * *

Despite the government’s regulation of the prices, coverage, and benefits in Medicare, the program has incurred a $38 trillion liability – a sum equivalent to nearly three years of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.

The country’s 87 private insurers’ general and administrative expenses are 5 percent, a percentage lower than Medicare’s.

40 percent of doctors refuse to see Medicaid recipients due to its stringent provider payment rates.  Increasingly, physicians refuse to see Medicare enrollees too, for similar reasons.

To compensate for the government’s shortfall in payments to providers, enrollees in private health insurance have been forced to pay about $90 billion more annually.

* * * * *

Source: RCP, Government Should Get Back to the Basics on Health Care, August 22, 2009
Regina E. Herzlinger, McPherson Professor at Harvard Business School and author of “Who Killed Health Care?’(McGraw Hill, 2007)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/08/22/government_should_get_back_to_the_basics_on_health_care_97986.html

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Mission accomplished: Bank the $100 million in line-by-line spending cuts.

August 25, 2009

Three months ago, President Barack Obama ordered his cabinet secretaries to find $100 million in budget cuts for the current fiscal year to emphasize the point that he, too, was serious about belt-tightening.

I missed the report when it came out.

The answer: Agencies overachieved, cutting $102 million – roughly 0.006% of the estimated federal deficit.

* * * * *

From Bizblog, Obama Completes $100 Million Budget Cut, July 29, 2009

The list of 77 spending cuts, which the White House is calling “the $100 million savings challenge,” reflects the vastness of government — and its vast inefficiency…

The Air Force has proposed replacing its specially formulated jet fuel with commercial aviation fuel, which it will top up with some military additives. That will save nearly $52 million next year, when the program begins.

The Office of Thrift Supervision, a division of the Treasury, identified unused phone lines costing $320,000.

By increasing the number of soldiers traveling on each airplane chartered for rest-and-relaxation leave, the Army will save $18 million in the next few months.

The Navy will save $5 million a year by deleting inactive Internet accounts.

The Justice Department will save $573,000 through fiscal 2010 by setting up its printers and copiers to use both sides of the paper.

By emailing some documents instead of printing them out, the Department of Homeland Security will save $318,000.

Both Homeland Security and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration have pledged to take the same step that has sent the newspaper industry into a tailspin: They will start getting their news online free, rather than renew their subscriptions. Homeland Security will save $47,160.

The Coast Guard realized that maintenance schedules for its 1,800 small boats assumed they were for recreational use such as water-skiing or bass-fishing. By adjusting maintenance schedules to reflect what the Coast Guard actually does, the agency discovered it can save $2 million a year.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is going to save $3.8 million by refurbishing and reusing or selling its emergency trailers — like the ones provided to people displaced by hurricanes — instead of ditching them.

Congratulations – great job, Obama. You are the cost cutting president, indeed.

http://bizblogger.blogspot.com/2009/07/obama-completes-100-million-budget-cut.html

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See also:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124882436513388423.html

For the official report with all cuts:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/blog/admin_savings_appendix_–_final.pdf

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Forget the cola wars … now, it’s Big Carl vs. Big Mac in “the burger wars” ..

August 25, 2009

Ken’s Take: (1) Nice example of “judo marketing” – leveraging a much bigger competitor’s strength. (2) the mobile diner shows some marketing cahones (3) never, ever say that you’re not concerned about what competitors are doing – just riles them up (4) even if you say you’re not concerned, be concerned and counter-punch

Excerpted from WSJ: Hardee’s, Carl’s Hope to Steer Angus Eaters. Aug 19, 2009 

The burger wars are heating up, with the Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. chains taking aim at McDonald’s Corp. with a taste challenge and an attack on Big Mac.

In September, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. restaurants will offer mail-in refunds to customers who claim to like a McDonald’s Angus burger better than a Carl’s Jr. ‘Six Dollar Angus Burger ‘ — which actually costs $3.99 –or a $3.49 Hardee’s Angus Thickburger.

The chief executive of CKE Restaurants — the parent of both Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. —  said that McDonald’s national rollout last month of $3.99 Angus burgers “gave us the perfect opportunity” to change a perception among consumers that burgers at Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s cost more than those at McDonald’s.

Moreover, feeling that the McDonald’s Angus burger was a copycat of CKE’s Angus burgers, Carl’s Jr.  is introducing the Big Carl, to go up against the Big Mac.

The Big Carl contains seven ounces of beef, compared to the Big Mac’s 3.2 ounces, and costs $2.49, about 50 cents less than a Big Mac, depending on the city.

“After they so blatantly copied our burgers, we felt it was fair play.” 

The Big Carl burger will be backed by a snarky marketing campaign. One television commercial begins with a parody of the Big Mac jingle followed by a voice from Carl’s Jr. saying, “We’ve got a jingle, too. Double the meat. Double the cheese. Less money. La La La La La.”

One day next month, the company will park a Carl’s Jr. mobile diner outside McDonald’s restaurants in Los Angeles and offer to swap McDonald’s customers’ Big Macs for Big Carls.

CKE could have a hard time making a dent in its large rival. With 14,000 U.S. stores, McDonald’s dwarfs CKE, which has 1,082 Carl’s Jr. restaurants and 1,713 Hardee’s in the U.S.

Hardee’s sells different types of Thickburgers, the biggest of which is the Monster Thickburger, which tips the scales at 1,420 calories and 108 grams of fat. McDonald’s Bacon and Cheese Angus burger weighs in with 790 calories and 39 grams of fat.

McDonald’s isn’t worried about CKE’s efforts. “It’s flattering that there’s so much attention around us … our Angus third pounder is a great burger and I’m not too concerned about what other folks are doing.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125064285111841883.html?mod=djemMM

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Deficit estimate upped 28% to $9 trillion … that’s trillion with a “t”

August 24, 2009

Late Friday afternoon – after the weekly new cycle – Team Obama admitted that the CBO and external economists are right: the projected 10 year budget deficit looks ,ore like $ 9 trillion than $ 7 trillion. 

I guess the administration thinks the $ 2 trillion difference – a whopping 28% increase – is simply “rounding error”.

* * * * *

Reuters, Obama to raise 10-year deficit to $9 trillion,  Aug 21, 2009

The Obama administration will raise its 10-year budget deficit projection to approximately $9 trillion from $7.108 trillion in a report next week, a senior administration official told Reuters on Friday.

The higher deficit figure, based on updated economic data, brings the White House budget office into line with outside estimates and gives further fuel to President Barack Obama’s opponents, who say his spending plans are too expensive in light of budget shortfalls.

The White House took heat for sticking with its $7.108 trillion forecast earlier this year after the Congressional Budget Office forecast that deficits between 2010 and 2019 would total $9.1 trillion.

The White House budget office will also lower its deficit forecast for this fiscal year, which ends September 30, to $1.58 trillion from $1.84 trillion next week after removing $250 billion set aside for bank bailouts.

Record-breaking deficits have raised concerns about America’s ability to finance its debt and whether the United States can maintain its top-tier AAA credit rating.

Treasury markets have been worried all year about the mounting deficit. The United States relies on large foreign buyers such as China and Japan to cheaply finance its debt, and they may demand higher interest rates if they begin to doubt that the government can control its deficits.

“It’s one of those underlying pieces of news that is liable to haunt the bond market at some point in the future.”

Many economists think it is unlikely the government will curtail spending, which means taxes would have to go up to cover the rising costs.

Higher taxes, of course, could slow economic recovery and growth.

Source article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57K4XE20090821

* * * * *

Note: the $9 trillion doesn’t include the proposed $1 trillion cost of ObamaCare. Ouch.

* * * * *

Mandating that everybody carries health insurance … so, how’s that going to work?

August 24, 2009

I’m in favor of mandating that everybody carry catastrophic health insurance. 

For example, forcing a young, healthy adult to carry insurance to cover the possibility of unexpected serious illness or accident makes perfect sense to me.

I’m indifferent re: making them carry basic coverage for run-of-the-mill maladies like the occasional sore throat.  If they want to self-insure on those incidents, so be it.

What most puzzles me is how Team Obama plans to enforce the health insurance mandate. 

How will the people without insurance be identified?  How much will the fines be?  What if they can’t afford the fines?

For example, what about illegal immigrants?  (Note: despite the rhetoric to the contrary, they are in the 47 million uninsureds). The government (national and local) refuses to enforce employment laws or to check immigration status upon arrest (for non-immigration crimes). 

Will we profile folks,  stop them and ask them to present their insurance cards?  I doubt it.

So, when and where will folks have to provide proof of insurance?

For mortgages, lenders require proof of home insurance.

For auto insurance, it happens when cars are registered (though people can lie), and when there’s a traffic violation.

But for health insurance, what’s the mechanism that will be put in place?

I can’t imagine any practical way of enforcing the law … and the pontificators certainly haven’t served any up. My bet: it’ll be in the ERs when people show up for treatment – which, of course, they will get.

If anybody knows the answer, please post a reply.

* * * * *

One idea: require proof of health insurance coverage at the voting booth …

* * * * *

Networking basics … from an MSB MBA alum.

August 24, 2009

Jen Folsom – one of my fav MSB MBA alums* —   is the DC Metropolitan area Director of Momentum Resources, a boutique staffing firm specializing in placing professionals in flexible and reduced hours positions with smart organizations.

Most of her candidates are working mothers, seeking a more positive work-life balance, but she also works with many fathers.

Her 5 minute pitch on networking is worth listening to …

* Note: I know that I’m not supposed to have favorites, but her twin boys named their stuffed animals Captain & Skipper … that’s special !

 

Also see:
http://www.heelsconnect.com/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=207:featuring-jennifer-folsom&catid=38:featured-workingwomen&Itemid=66

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Every big idea that works is marked by simplicity and clarity …

August 21, 2009

Ken’s Take: I admire the way Peggy Noonan writes – even when I disagree with her positions. In this article, regardless of your POV on ObamaCare, there’s a powerful, portable lesson on leadership and rhetoric …

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ:  Pull the Plug on ObamaCare, Peggy Noonan, Aug 21, 2009 

Every big idea that works is marked by simplicity, by clarity.

You can understand it when you hear it, and you can explain it to people.

Social Security: Retired workers receive a public pension to help them through old age.

Medicare: People over 65 can receive taxpayer-funded health care.

Welfare: If you have no money and cannot support yourself, we will help as you get back on your feet.

These things are clear. I understand them. You understand them.

The president’s health-care plan is not clear, and I mean that not only in the sense of “he hasn’t told us his plan.” I mean it in terms of the voodoo phrases, this gobbledygook, this secret language of government that no one understands—”single payer,” “public option,” “insurance marketplace exchange.”

No one understands what this stuff means, nobody normal.

And when normal people don’t know what the words mean, they don’t say to themselves, “I may not understand, but my trusty government surely does, and will treat me and mine with respect.”

They think, “I can’t get what these people are talking about. They must be trying to get one past me. So I’ll vote no.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204884404574362971349563340.html

* * * * *

Ken’s Take II: Biz world examples from my B&D experience:

1) At one point, B&D power tools were being one-upped by Makita – a Japanese “encroacher”.  The prevailing internal strategic mantra became “Kill Makita”.  Very clear. Very emotive.  Very personal.  Compare that to trite, amorphous slogans like “Commitment to Excellence”

2) Best product name I was ever associated with was the “automatic shut-off iron”.  The name itself conveyed the product benefits in a very emotive way.

That’s what I mean by “portability” of a concept …

* * * * *

Ironic twists as Hurricane Bill heads for Bermuda

August 21, 2009

1) Bill & Hillary Clinton are vacationing in Bermuda.  Imagine Hillary dealing with 2 Hurricane Bills simultaneously.

2) Wouldn’t it be justice delivered if the 4 terrorists who got relocated from Gitmo to Bermuda got their clocks cleaned ?

* * * * *

How Is America Going To End? The top 144 scenarios.

August 21, 2009

From Slate magazine ….

Here’s a sampling:

1. Electromagnetic Pulse: A nuclear weapon detonated at high elevation could knock out the country’s electrical infrastructure, sending us back to the Stone Age. The congressional EMP Commission says an electromagnetic pulse “is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences.”

2. Foreign Invasion: The Red Dawn scenario: A hostile alliance of foreign powers dispatches a team of elite combat troops to America. They launch a coordinated assault with thousands of paratroopers on key military and communications installations, dealing the U.S. government a fatal blow.

3. Russia Hits the Button: Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Weinberg says the United States should fear “a mistaken attack on our country by the huge Russian arsenal of nuclear weapons.” As recently as 1995, a “retaliatory” nuclear strike was barely averted when Russian officials figured out at the last second that what they thought was an enemy strike was really a craft launched to monitor the Northern lights.

4. Loose Nukes: Taliban fighters wrest nuclear weapons from a destabilized Pakistan. Or al-Qaida acquires a small arsenal of nukes from a disintegrating Russia. The nonstate actors launch against the United States in an attack exponentially worse than 9/11.

5. Dirty Bombs: Terror groups armed with “radiological dispersal devices”—a cocktail of radioactive material and garden-variety explosives—launch coordinated attacks in a dozen major cities. The attacks destabilize the government and break our spirit. The terrorists win.

6. Abandonment: After a series of devastating attacks, Washington admits it can no longer protect large swaths of the nation. The United States contracts to a smaller core that’s easier to defend.

7. Suicidal Tyrant: An Ahmadinejad-like figure strikes at the heart of the Great Satan, launching nuclear weapons at major American cities and pushing the country to anarchy.

8. Internal Guerrilla Warfare: Smugglers and street gangs join forces to contest the authority of the U.S. government—first along the Mexican border and later in pockets of major cities—in order to maintain control of lucrative illicit markets.

9. Mercenary Armies: As in the seventh season of 24, a military contractor goes rogue and attacks the United States. Not even Jack Bauer can save us.

10. Space Attacks: A coalition of malevolent nations with hyper-advanced space programs strikes at the United States from the outer limits, disrupting all of our communications and rendering our conventional Army powerless.

11. Information War: A rogue state, terror organization, or group of malevolent hackers takes down America’s infrastructure by infiltrating every system that’s controlled by computers: television stations, traffic signals, telecommunications, the stock market, the power grid. As seen in Live Free or Die Hard.

12. Push-Button Warfare: Nanoscale production allows anyone to make tanks and flying drones with the press of a button. With sophisticated weaponry available to all, the nation-state ceases to be an important entity.

13. Peak Oil: Petroleum production reaches terminal decline. Oil becomes too expensive to extract, and alternative energies can’t maintain our fossil-fuel-dependent lifestyle. The developed world goes kaput, with gas-happy America leading the way to the gutter.

14. Peak Water: The overpopulated, overheated Southwest runs out of H20, instigating mass migration to Canada.

15. Overpopulation: A spike in birth rates—or massive levels of immigration—increases the population of the United States to 1 billion. America doesn’t have the carrying capacity to support its new crush of citizens, and a die-off ensues.

For #16 to #144, go to the full article:
http://www.slate.com/id/2223285/sidebar/2223286/

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Thanks to Jim C for the lead.

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Backlash against Whole Foods … just because CEO proposed healthcare alternatives

August 20, 2009

On Aug. 11, the CEO of Whole Foods wrote a WSJ op-ed advocating 8 specific proposals for really reforming healthcare.
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/08/17/improving-health-care-without-adding-to-the-deficit-8-specific-ideas/

Among his proposals: tort reform, equalized tax treatment of company-paid and private health insurance premiums, continuing health savings accounts, and access to  insurance across state lines.

Unfortunately (for Whole Foods), most of his ideas aren’t part of ObamaCare since they impact trial lawyers and / or unions.

Most unfortunate, he failed to include a government run insurance option as one of his eight proposals. 

Big mistake.

So, Whole Foods is now subject to a boycott.

Talk about angry mobs …

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Whole Foods Boycotted by Liberals for CEO’s Anti-Obama Health Care Position
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/08/19/whole-foods-boycotted-by-liberals-for-ceos-anti-obama-health-ca/

The grocery store Whole Foods is facing a boycott organized by liberal activists because the CEO opposes President Obama’s health care reform proposals.

The company’s chief executive, John Mackey, wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed on health care that has roiled the liberal blogosphere and prompted calls for a boycott.

“While we clearly need health-care reform, the last thing our country needs is a massive new health-care entitlement that will create hundreds of billions of dollars of new unfunded deficits and move us much closer to a government takeover of our health-care system,” Mackey wrote in the WSJ.

“Instead, we should be trying to achieve reforms by moving in the opposite direction — toward less government control and more individual empowerment.”

The boycott leaders are organizing via the Huffington Post.

To me, it’s pretty basic: Mackey is working to oppose things I believe in, so I should stop giving him money,” wrote Ben Wyskida, who also works for the liberal magazine, The Nation. In a column titled “Why I’m Done with Whole Foods,” he said: “Mackey has confirmed for me that my money is going to support deregulation of the insurance industry, lies about the current health care proposal, and a crusade to lecture people who can’t access or can’t afford healthy food. I’m just not going to go there.”

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How long do you wait in line to checkout at the supermarket?

August 20, 2009

Well, if you live in DC, you wait the longest – over 8 minutes on average. 

Best solution isn’t to pick moving lines  … it’s to move to St. Louis.

Here are the numbers.  Below are some ‘so what’ points.

 [ Average wait times in grocery-store lines, in minutes]

Excerpted from WSJ,  Justice — Wait for It — on the Checkout Line, Aug 19, 2009 

While Americans spend relatively little time in queues, a wait they perceive as too long or unjust could curtail repeat purchases.

The simplest way to reduce wait time is also the most expensive: adding more employees.

Instead, some retailers and fast-food restaurants have gone the way of banks and airports, shuttling customers into a single line where the person in front goes to the next open cash register.

Other retailers are dabbling in technological upgrades to improve the waiting experience with updates on wait times or pleasant distractions.

But the primary goal often isn’t a reduction in wait time.  Instead, retailers are appealing to consumers’ sense of justice by ensuring no one is served after another customer who arrives later.

“Supermarkets are one of the last major service industries in the country where you don’t have single, serpentine lines.”

Waiting research has attempted to quantify how qualitative factors can affect shoppers’ estimates of time in line and their reaction to that time. Customers overestimate their wait times by 23% to 50%.

When it comes to customer satisfaction, time isn’t of the essence; fairness is. Many studies have shown how frustrating it is for customers to see others get served faster.

Supermarket lines may not be the longest, just the most loathed. Two years ago, in 20 out of 25 major U.S. cities, the average wait time at grocery stores was under five minutes.

Many supermarkets address that tension with express lanes for shoppers with few items, so that they don’t have to wait for lengthy transactions. In other words, supermarkets are thereby treating their best customers – who buy the most —  the worst.

Nearly half of supermarkets have some form of self-checkout. But these systems are usually outnumbered by traditional cash registers and often slowed by customers’ unfamiliarity with barcode scanning.

Full article :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125063608198641491.html

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Excluding murders and auto accidents, the U.S. ranks 1st in life expectancy …

August 19, 2009

Ken’s Take: I guess the answer is fewer doctors, more police …

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Excerpted from Chicago Tribune, What’s Scary About Health Care Reform?,  August 16, 2009

Pres Obama says constantly that the United States spends more per person on medical care than any other nation,  but “the quality of our care is often lower, and we aren’t any healthier. In fact, citizens in some countries that spend substantially less than we do are actually living longer than we do.”

It’s true that the United States spends more on health care than anyone else, and it’s true that we rank below a lot of other advanced countries in life expectancy.

Overall Rank / Country / Life expectancy
  3  Japan 82.12  
  7  Australia 81.63  
  8  Canada 81.23 
  9  France 80.98 
10  Sweden 80.86  
11  Switzerland 80.85  
13  Israel 80.73  
19  Italy 80.20 
23  Spain 80.05 
24  Norway 79.95
26  Greece 79.66  
27  Austria 79.50  
30  Netherlands 79.40 
31 Luxembourg 79.33  
32 Germany 79.26 
33 Belgium 79.22  
36 United Kingdom 79.01 
37 Finland 78.97  
40 Korea, South 78.72  
46 Denmark 78.30  
47 Ireland 78.24 
48 Portugal 78.21  
50 United States 78.11

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html 

But, the juxtaposition of the two facts, however, doesn’t prove we are wasting our money or doing the wrong things.

It only proves that lots of things affect mortality besides medical treatment.

One big reason our life expectancy lags is that Americans have an unusual tendency to perish in homicides or accidents.

We are 12 times more likely than the Japanese to be murdered and nearly twice as likely to be killed in auto wrecks.

In their 2006 book, “The Business of Health,” economists Robert L. Ohsfeldt and John E. Schneider set out to determine where the U.S. would rank in life span among developed nations if homicides and accidents are factored out. Their answer? If homicides and accidents are factored out, the U.S. is in first place.

That discovery indicates our health care system is doing a poor job of preventing shootouts and drunk driving but a good job of healing the sick.

For example, the U.S. has the highest survival rates for lung, breast, prostate, colon and rectum cancers.

Full article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/08/16/whats_scary_about_health_care_reform_97901.html

How (and why) consumers drive American innovation …

August 19, 2009

Excerpted from “Consumers Drive American Innovation”,  John Quelch,  Marketing KnowHow, March 31, 2009

Marketing, a distinctly American expertise, has of encouraged consumers to be venturesome and to welcome innovation.

The willingnes of American consumers to adopt new products, new processes and new services more rapidly than consumers in other countries may be the most important of all enablers of entrepreneurship and innovation in America.

Why is the American consumer more venturesome? Six factors come to mind.

Wealth. The average American consumer has more disposable income than his counterparts in most other countries. There is therefore money available, with easy credit historically fueling the fire, to risk on new things and new experiences. And the secondary market, from the flea auction to eBay, is well developed so the consumer does not necessarily lose everything if disappointed.

Mobility. American consumers relocate more than most. What they own, how they dress, what they do. In other words their consumption behavior, becomes an important signaling device to attract efficiently the right set of new friends and acquaintances. It’s not so much a matter of keeping up with the Jones’s; it’s a matter of quickly identifying the Jones’s like you.

Immigration. The prevalence of immigrants among America’s successful entrepreneurs is well-documented. But the same curiosity and openness to new things also characterizes consumer demand in the American melting pot.

Independence. The American frontier tradition and the sheer number of Americans promotes an attention to individual differentiation that is less prevalent in more conformist and homogeneous societies. Among 300 million curious consumers, it is possible for almost any innovation to find a viable niche market.

Recognition. Americans are not overly concerned or burdened by history. Many live for today or for the next new thing. Early adopters and lead users of new products are listened to and applauded. Their opinions are sought on the Internet. They can accelerate adoption of a new product or kill it. The American maverick commands more influence than the European eccentric.

Technology. Americans understand that innovation is the key to growth and wealth in a global economy where knowledge travels at lightspeed over the Internet. America’s economic strength is based on innovation. Proud parents take their children to science fairs, new electronic gizmos dominate Christmas gift sales, and senior citizens find renewed connectivity with far-flung families by going on line. Americans know technology adds value to daily life.

Bottom line: Venturesome consumers have an appetite for innovation …

Full article:
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/quelch/2009/03/how_consumers_drive_american_i.html