From Friday’s Diageo-Hotline tracking poll.
Who would do best job handling the economy?
* * * * *
Note: This poll is run by an MSB MBA alum
* * * * *
Want more from the Homa Files?
Click link => The Homa Files Blog
Archive for September 19th, 2008
Who would do best job handling the economy?
September 19, 2008Must read: Supporters of both candidates doubt their man is up to the job …
September 19, 2008Excerpted from WSJ: ” Why It’s Getting Mean”, Peggy Noonan, Sept 19, 2008
* * * * *
My Opinion
This week, a couple of my friends expressed frustration that the financial crisis revealed the obvious — neither McCain nor Obama — have the slightest clue what’s going on, why it’s going on, and most important, how to fix it. I’ll bet that a check of their college transcripts shows that neither has even taken Econ 101; their resumes show no business management experience; neither show any instinct for “the game”, neither seem to cope well with complexity and ambiguity.
Peggy Noonan leans right, but is usually pretty balanced (meaning that I often disagree with her). I think her op-ed really puts a finger on the the pulse. Highlights below — worth following the link and reading the whole essay.
* * * * *
Article Highlights
The financial crisis changes the entire shape and feel of the presidential election. It isn’t just bad news; it’s deep bad news that reaches into the heart of widespread national anxiety.
* * * * *
Everyone is afraid—the rich that they will no longer be rich, the poor that they’ll be hit first by the downturn in the “last hired, first fired” sense, the middle class that it will be harder now to maintain their hold on middle-classness
Both the Democrats and the Republicans spent the week treating the catastrophe as a political opportunity. This was unserious. A serious approach might have addressed large questions such as: Was this crisis not, at bottom, a failure of stewardship?
* * * * *
The economic crisis brings a new question, unarticulated so far but there, and I know because when I mention it to people they go off like rockets.
It is: Do you worry that neither of them is up to it? Up to the job in general? Is either Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama actually up to getting us through this and other challenges? I haven’t heard a single person say, “Yes, my guy is the answer.”
* * * * *
The overarching political question: In a time of heightened anxiety, will people inevitably lean toward the older congressional vet, the guy who’s been around forever? Why take a chance on the new, young man at a time of crisis? Wouldn’t that be akin to injecting an unstable element into an unstable environment? There’s a lot at stake.
Or will people have the opposite reaction? I’ve had it, the system has been allowed to corrode and collapse under seven years of Republican stewardship. Throw the bums out. We need change. Obama may not be experienced, but that may help him cut through. He’s not compromised.
* * * * *
A mere hunch in a passing moment: In a time of crisis, confusion and fear, Americans just might, in their practicality, turn back to the old tradition of divided government.
They know the Congress will be Democratic. They assume it will soon be more Democratic. Therefore the president they choose may well be of the other party.
* * * * *
What if neither of them is the right man? What if neither of them is equal to the moment? What if neither party is equal to the moment?
This is not in itself important—who cares what they think, really? But there will be a small impact in terms of tone.
If you are a longtime Obama supporter and are beginning now to admit to deep doubts, you can’t just announce you’ve been wrong for the past year. You’d look like a fool. You cannot speak credibly, or in a way you yourself believe, in rosy support. But what you can do is turn, with new rage, on the guy you’ve at least long opposed. So you ignore Mr. Obama and attack Mr. McCain with new ferocity.
Or, if you have doubts about Mr. McCain, you ignore him and turn your heat on Mr. Obama.
* * * * *
Do you ever have the passing thought that the presidential election doesn’t matter as much as we think?
If you win bad in a 50/50 nation, it makes it really hard to govern. Whoever wins will govern within more of less the same limits, both domestically and internationally.
A New York liberal leaning toward Mr. McCain told me this week he has no fear that Mr. McCain may be a more militant figure than Mr. Obama. We already have two wars, “we’re out of army.” Even if Mr. McCain wanted a war, he said, he couldn’t start one.
I wonder if we follow the election so passionately because we’re afraid. We’re afraid a lot of our national problems are intractable, and the future too full of challenge.
Deep inside we think: Ah, that won’t work either. We are all making believe this is a life-changing election because we know it’s not a life-changing election.
* * * * *
Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122176556077753375.html
* * * * *
Want more from the Homa Files?
Click link => The Homa Files Blog
Slash the Price and Sink the Brand
September 19, 2008Excerpted from Harvard Business Online, “In A Downturn, Discounts Can Be Dangerous”, by Jeff Stibel, August 21, 2008
* * * * *
Often the first thing companies do during a downturn in the economy is reduce prices on their products and services. While it may be necessary in some cases to reduce prices, discounting has its risks. The biggest risk is that it can create a negative long-term perception of a product and a down-channel effect, ultimately leading to market-share erosion.
And discounting can also be dangerous to low-cost providers not focused on brand. Value-minded consumers have long-term memories and it is hard to retain market-share when the economy recovers and you try to raise your prices or eliminate promotions.
In some cases, it may make sense to buck the trend entirely and increase prices. In fact, many companies are taking this counterintuitive approach. To be sure, many are blaming the cost of commodities and these increases will put a strain on short-term growth. But over the long-run this could build brand value.
There’s no doubt that discounting and sales promotions are a vital sales technique when done correctly. It inspires excitement and creates a call to action. However, when offered at the wrong times–for no other reason than to boost sales–it can cut the other way and create brand deterioration.
* * * * *
Consumers give you their hard-earned money in return for something that meets or exceeds their perceived value. They want to see value and quality in return for their money.
And studies have shown that in many cases, the more people pay, the more value they ascribe to their purchase. Money plays a funny role in the purchase process: it anchors perceived value. If you discount prices during adverse times, consumers may begin to question the original value.
When you discount, you undo the “placebo effect” of higher prices. And this leads to a decaying belief in the value of the product offered. So it may be short-term thinking to devalue a consumer’s perceived value of a product simply to move more merchandise during shifts in the economy.
* * * * *
There are ways around this, of course. Consider the auto industry, typically the first to discount their way out of economic woes. Chrysler recently did something to preserve their price while offering a discount for something that does not affect their brand: gas. Chrysler cleverly took discounting to the next level by offering up a $2.99 gas guarantee for three years on all new car purchases within its fleet. The idea was to subsidize the fuel that goes into the new car, not the MSRP of the car itself.
* * * * *
Consider the long-term consequences for discounting during a recession and the potential for inadvertently re-positioning your brand. If you must, it may be better to focus on something ancillary rather than what your brand truly represents. Because once that veil is pierced, it may be incredibly difficult to go back and reestablish the value proposition to your consumers.
Edit by DAF
* * * * *
Full Article:
http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/stibel/2008/08/in-a-downturn-discounts-can-be.html
* * * * *
Want more from the Homa Files?
Click link => The Homa Files Blog
* * * * *
Don’t know MySpace?
September 19, 2008Excerpted from MediaPost Publications, “Study: 58% Aren’t Familiar With Social Networking” Sep 5, 2008
* * * * *
Apparently tweeting, friending and linking have not infiltrated popular culture as much as one might think.
A new study from Synovate reveals that well over half (58%) of those surveyed do not know what social networking is. Even more surprising, more than a third of those who do engage are losing interest in it…
The Dutch were most likely to know the term social networking (89%), followed by the Japanese (71%) and Americans (70%).
Popularity of the phenomenon is fading amongst some, according to the study. When asked if they agree with the statement “I am losing interest in online social networking”, 36% of social networkers globally said yes…
The biggest finding, was that social networking is definitely not U.S.-centric. Overall, 26% of all respondents globally are members of social networking sites. This peaked with the Netherlands at 49%, United Arab Emirates (UAE) at 46%, Canada at 44% and the U.S. at 40%…
Edit by SAC
* * * * *
Facebook overcame MySpace this year to become the top social networking site. According to InternetNews.com, Facebook had 132.1 million unique users in June, while MySpace had 117.6 million. However, in terms of number of visits and average time spent on the site MySpace bests Facebook. Which should a marketer prefer?
* * * * *
Full article:
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=89928
* * * * *
Want more from the Homa Files?
Click link => The Homa Files Blog
Some Simple Arithmetic – Unemployment
September 19, 2008The “soaring” unemployment rate is about 6%.
There are roughly 225 million adult citizens in the U.S.
So, about 210 million are employed; 15 million aren’t
Frequent reports: 10 to 20 million illegal aliens in the country.
Coincidence?
* * * * *
I know, I know: they’re in crummy jobs that citizens don’t want.
So, 15 million would rather be unemployed ? Hmmm.
* * * * *
Want more from the Homa Files?
Click link => The Homa Files Blog
The Homa Files 