Archive for May, 2009

Re: the economy, keep your eyes on bondholders and bond buyers …

May 29, 2009

Ken’s Take: Team Obama thought it was a good idea to screw Chrysler bondholders (secured creditors) un favor of the UAW (unsecured “junior” creditors), and has assumed that investors (mostly the Chinese) would continue soaking up US Treasury bonds to fund the current spending spree. 

Now, Treasury bond yields are soaring.  A function of the massive amount of debt being put on the books, and the realization that the rules re: the security of bond offerings is subject to government whims.  This is going yo become a big story …

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Excerpted from WSJ: “The Bond Vigilantes”, May 28, 2009

Treasury yields leapt again yesterday at the long end, with the 10-year note climbing above 3.7%, its highest close since November. Treasury yields had stayed low, and the dollar had remained strong,

As risk aversion subsides, and investors return to corporate bonds and other assets, investors are now calculating the risks of renewed dollar inflation.

They have cause to be worried, given Washington’s astonishing bet on fiscal and monetary reflation. The Obama Administration’s epic spending spree means the Treasury will have to float trillions of dollars in new debt in the next two or three years alone.

No wonder the Chinese and other dollar asset holders are nervous. They wonder — as do we — whether the unspoken Beltway strategy is to pay off this debt by inflating away its value.

The surge in the 10-year note is especially notable because its rate helps to determine mortgage lending rates, and the Fed is desperate to keep mortgage rates low to reflate the housing market,.

Full article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124347148949660783.html

AOL down to 6.3 million dial-up subscribers … (none of whom are loyal readers of the Homa Files)

May 29, 2009

Ken’s Take: AOL was sitting on a golden goose … one that still generates about $1.5 billion in annual subscription revenue.

AOL.com and related properties claim over 100 million unique visitors each month  —   that’s about 1 of every 3 US citizens.

Was a great business … still is a good business … but slipping away.

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Excerpted from Standard.net, ” AOL reboot? “, May 24, 2009

The dial-up Internet service was AOL’s backbone. At its peak, in 2002, AOL had 26.7 million dial-up subscribers. Even as recently as 2006, dial-up was a $5.78 billion business for AOL.

But consumers have flocked to speedier offerings. Last year AOL’s Internet access revenue was down to $1.93 billion, and now AOL counts just 6.3 million dial-up subscribers.

AOL’s various online properties averaged 106 million unique U.S. visitors each month during the first quarter. That ranked AOL fourth; Google, Yahoo and Microsoft Corp. were first, second and third.

But AOL was the only member of this Web top four to see a year-over-year drop in traffic in the first three months of the year. It had averaged 110 million visitors in the first quarter of 2008.

And while AOL’s operating income totaled $150 million in the first quarter, that was a 47 percent fall from the year-ago quarter.

Full article:
http://www.standard.net/live/business/174069

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Remember the mortgage loan modifications that were supposed to slow foreclosures?

May 28, 2009

Ken’s Take:  Wasn’t a fan of the rush to modify deadbeats’ loans to “keep then in their homes” … pointed out several times that most of these folks made no downpayment and never built any equity in the homes.  They aren’t “owners”, they’re simply “occupants”.  No surprise that the modification program had little impact.

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Excerpted from WSJ: “Foregone Foreclosures”, MAY 27, 2009

A central tenet of Washington economic policy for the past three years has been that the key to ending the recession is stopping mortgage foreclosures, whatever the cost.

Well, a new study shows that … mortgages are continuing to sour at a rate nearly as fast as they can be modified.

Fitch Ratings looked at mortgages bundled into securities between 2005 and 2007 and managed by some 30 mortgage companies. Fitch found that a conservative projection was that between 65% and 75% of modified subprime loans will fall delinquent by 60 days or more within 12 months of having been modified to keep the borrowers in their homes.

Even loans whose principal was reduced by as much as 20% were still redefaulting in a range of 30% to 40% after 12 months.

The reasons for the high redefault rate aren’t surprising. Many of the borrowers never could afford these homes in the first place.  And, and as home prices continue to fall in some markets, borrowers remain underwater and many of them simply walk away from the home and thus redefault.

This study has to come as a blow to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which has invested a great deal of political capital in the modification thesis.

On the evidence so far, the mortgage modification fervor has been a giant political exercise with little impact on housing prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124338503008056785.html#printMode

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Uh-oh … Obama’s PAI slips to the lowest since inauguration … down to one slim point

May 27, 2009

According to the Rasmussen Survey reported on Tuesday, May 26, 2009

31% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President.

30% Strongly Disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President.

The Presidential Approval Index (PAI) is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve.

So, Obama’s a Presidential Approval Index rating is +1. That’s the lowest positive rating yet received by the new President (

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I\Rasmussen notes that it will take several more days to determine whether these low ratings are merely statistical noise or a reflection of shifting perceptions.

Full article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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Great moments in transparency: Recovery.gov

May 26, 2009

Ken’s Take: Did anybody really expect that the pork-laden, faux stimulus package would be “transparent”? 

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According to USA TODAY:

Although President Obama has vowed that citizens will be able to track “every dime” of the $787 billion stimulus bill, a government website dedicated to the spending won’t  be complete until next spring — halfway through the program,

Recovery.gov now lists programs being funded by the stimulus money, but provides no details on who received the grants and contracts.

The site currently lists total amounts available and already spent — as of last week, $72.2 billion available and $15.4 billion spent. There’s also an interactive map showing allocations for each state.

After the first data become available in October, the plan’s watchdog board will wait six to nine months for the White House Office of Management and Budget to issue new guidance on how far down the spending chain the money must be tracked.

People accustomed to getting easily searchable information quickly could be frustrated …  

Executives at Onvia, which collects government contracting information for its clients, are skeptical that recovery.gov can meet the administration’s stated goals.  “It’s really, really hard.”

Full article:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/2009-05-06-stimulus_N.htm

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Obamamobiles: Second order effects and unintended consequences

May 22, 2009

Ken’s Take: One of my criticisms of Team Obama is their unwillingness (or inability) to think beyond proclamations and “first steps”.  Think: close Gitmo, so where to put them.?  

Same applies to the arbitrary raising of CAFE standards, which is guaranteed to cost lives, and arguably, will increase pollution — at least in the short-run.

If you want to cut gas consumption, slap on a gas tax — that’ll get people driving fewer miles — fewer miles = less gas, fewer deaths.

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Excerpted from WSJ, “Light Cars Are Dangerous Cars “,  May 22, 2009

Obama’s new CAFE rules could impose substantial costs in terms of urban air pollution and human life.

The great irony of Mr. Obama’s fuel efficiency proposals is that they may worsen emissions of these harmful gases.

In today’s automobile fleet, the majority of the pollution comes from the oldest, dirtiest cars. In fact, the dirtiest 10% of the cars account for more than 50% of smog and carbon monoxide. The dirtiest one-third of the fleet accounts for more than 80% of the pollution.

By the White House’s own calculation, the new rules will  increase the average price of a new car by $1,300. Herein lies the problem.

If you raise the price of new cars, people will buy fewer of them or, at a minimum, put off the purchase for a year or so while they drive the old clunker for a few thousand more miles. And fewer new cars means more pollution, which can cause significant health problems.

The Obama fuel efficiency plan may also contribute to a significant increase in highway deaths as vehicles are required to quickly meet the new CAFE standard and will likely become lighter in weight as a result.

An NRC study estimated that  between 1,300 and 2,600 motor vehicle crash deaths per year would not have occur if cars were as heavy as they were in 1976.

It is likely that down-weighting of cars will be an important means of meeting the new standard. And one result again could be highway deaths that might otherwise not have occurred.

One might argue, this “death effect” would not be the case if everyone drove smaller cars … but, nearly half of all car crashes  are one-vehicle crashes. Put another way: If your car hits a tree or a post or a bridge abutment, you are most certainly better off in a larger car.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124294901851445311.html#mod=djemEditorialPage
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The difference between pep rallies and touchdowns …

May 21, 2009

Is it just me, or is Team Obama having trouble getting the ball (make that balls) into the end zone?

Let’s start small: Roland Burris.  Team Obama called on him to do the right thing and resign.  Well, Sen. Burris is still alive and well and  casting votes.

On bigger issues:

Has the rate of foreclosures slowed? Nope.  Last month was they wre the highest ever.

Have toxic assets been taken off any bank books?  Nope.  Just a bunch of jockeying for position in the public-private partnerships.

Is credit flowing again? Nope.  Despite lots of money being pumped into the system, credit is tight — very tight.

Has the economy been stimulated? Except for the tenuous logic of “jobs saved”, it sure doesn’t seem like it.

Are GM and Chrysler on the road to automaker viability? Please, get serious.

Is Gitmo shutting down?  Well, Congressional Dems seem to be saying no.

Are our troops coming home?  Nope.  Iraq’s still on the Bush timetable, and Afghanistan (the “right war”) is shaping up as a quagmire (as it was for the Russians).

My conclusion: campaigning is way easier than governing.  The issues are way more complex that the soundbites.  It’s way easier to talk a good game than to play a good game.

Bold proclamations are motivating, but eventually, you gotta put some points on the board.

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Tougher CAFE Standards … and Behavioral Economics

May 20, 2009

OK, put one in the win column: Pres. Obama fiated that passenger cars must get almost 40 MPG by 2016 … cutting dependence on foreign oil and lowering greenhouse gases.

Not so fast.

Key questions: will Americans flock to buy premium priced mini-cars that have, shall we say, safety issues?

The price premium will be taxed away — take it to the bank that there will be a taxpayer subsidy for the purchase of Obamamobiles to neutralize the economic disadvantages (and make Obama Motors Inc. look like it’s turning a profit).

My opinion, the safety issue looms large.  There’ll be plenty of SUVs on the road for the next couple of years.  In a collision, Smart cars aren’t going to look that smart.  (Note: most policy makers think only of major metro areas, not  the open roads — where hybrids have insignificant fuel advantages).

Unmentioned in the press today, is the question: will higher MPGs actually cut gas consumption.  That’s not obvious to me   Gas consumption is a function of MPG and miles driven.  Past history says that when MPG goes up, people drive more.  Why not?  They can stretch their fuel budget further.

So, how to reduce gas consumption and emissions?  The proven answer is a gas tax.  Works in Europe.  When gas prices got to $4 in the U.S., folks slowed down and drove less. 

Sure, a gas tax would be a political challenge.  But, isn’t Obama supposed to be the agent of bold strokes and meaningful change.

If yes, why is he simply recycling and an old idea that probably won’t make a whit of difference?

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Marketing Budget Cuts At the Box Office

May 20, 2009

Excerpted from LA Times, “Studios struggle to rein in movie marketing costs” By Claudia Eller, Apr 20, 2009

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You know times are getting tough in the movie business when an entourage of studio executives, instead of flying by private jet to Sacramento to attend a screening, is forced to ride-share … Along with hosting fewer lavish premiere parties, curtailing newspaper advertisements and restricting the number of agencies that produce trailers, the Hollywood studios are struggling to get a grip on the movie industry’s equivalent of the pork barrel earmark: marketing budgets.

And like an entitlement program that can’t be axed, Hollywood isn’t having much success … Studio executives contend that if they want to get out the word to the public about their movies, they have to pony up … “Every film launch is a new-product release …we can’t jeopardize successfully opening these pictures” …

One bit of good news is that the depressed economy has apparently not stopped people from going to movie theaters. Ticket sales are up 17.3% this year from a year earlier, and attendance is up 15.6%.

As the studios have flooded theaters in recent years with an increased number of releases, they have been forced to spend more on marketing as they jostle for the attention of moviegoers. Although studios have begun to reduce the numbers of films they make and squeeze the fees they pay talent, marketing costs have largely escaped the scythe.

After falling from a peak of $40 million in 2003, the average marketing cost for a studio picture popped back up again to $36 million in 2007

But executives say it’s hard to know exactly where to trim marketing costs because they fear spending too little could hurt a movie’s chances at the box office. A picture basically gets one shot to make a mark on opening weekend; if it doesn’t gain traction with audiences, it will be knocked out of the way on subsequent weekends by the next films opening up behind it … As a result, when it comes to cutting marketing costs, the studios have been largely confined to trimming the edges …

Buying commercial time to advertise a movie on network and cable TV remains the biggest marketing expense for the studios … Despite the recession, studios still spent as much as $3 million for each 30-second spot for 10 movies … that aired on the Super Bowl telecast in February.

For the same reason, companies defend their multimillion-dollar Super Bowl ads because of the huge audience the game delivers — about 100 million viewers — and argue that they can’t afford to cut back on network TV ads, even though viewership is declining …

One major contributor to rising marketing costs is the fragmentation of media, which makes it harder to reach an audience. The long-ago three TV network era has given way to an abundance of broadcast and cable channels and Internet sites …

With no end in sight for the recession or the economic pressure that the studios are under to shore up their bottom lines, marketing costs may finally get the same scrutiny as movie production budgets.

“Marketing is really an integral part of this business and always has been as far back as the barkers who used to stand out in front of the nickelodeon theaters and try to get people to come in … we just have to be smarter about it and try to get as much bang for our buck as we can.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-movies20-2009apr20,0,4008012.story?track=rss

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Anybody concerned about the national debt ?

May 19, 2009

Ken’s Take: Next to the government just flat out wasting money, my worry is the burgeoning debt.  Some debt – ok.  But, staggering levels not ok.

When I ask students why they’re unfazed, they admit that the sums are so large that “it’s more like Monopoly money” or”payback is so far off that’s it’s not worth worrying about”.

Somebody is eventually going to have to pay the piper …

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Excerpted from IBD, “Why No Focus On Huge Ongoing Debt?”,
May 15, 2009

Since 1961 the federal budget has run deficits in all but five years. But the resulting government debt has consistently remained below 50% of GDP; that’s the equivalent of a household with $100,000 of income having a $50,000 debt. Adverse economic effects, if any, were modest.

From 2010 to 2019, Team Obama projects deficits totaling $7.1 trillion; that’s atop the $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009.

By 2019, the ratio of publicly held federal debt to gross domestic product (GDP, or the economy) would reach 70%, up from 41% in 2008.

The CBO, using less optimistic economic forecasts, raises these estimates. The 2010-19 deficits would total $9.3 trillion; the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2019 would be 82%.

By CBO’s estimates, interest on the debt as a share of federal spending will double between 2008 and 2019, from 8% of the total to 16%.

One reason Obama is so popular is that he has promised almost everyone lower taxes and higher spending. The president doesn’t want to confront Americans with choices between lower spending and higher taxes — or, given the existing deficits, perhaps less spending and more taxes.

Closing future deficits with either tax increases or spending cuts would require gigantic changes.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=327285979616580

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Gov’t healthcare bureaucrats say: "Stick in up your %#@" … literally

May 19, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, ” How Washington Rations ObamaCare: a case study in ‘cost-control”, May 19, 2009

Here’s a preview of how health care will be rationed under a nationalized plan with a federal health board making Solomonic decisions based on “comparative effectiveness research”:

Medicare’s central planners decided to deny payment for a new version of one of life’s most unpleasant routine procedures, the colonoscopy.

At issue are “virtual colonoscopies,” or CT scans of the abdomen.

Colon cancer is the second leading cause of U.S. cancer death but one of the most preventable. Found early, the cure rate is 93%, but only 8% at later stages.

Virtual colonoscopies are likely to boost screenings because they are quicker, more comfortable and significantly cheaper than the standard “optical” procedure, which involves anesthesia and threading an endoscope through the lower intestine.

Virtual colonoscopies are endorsed by the American Cancer Society and covered by a growing number of private insurers including Cigna and UnitedHealthcare.

The problem for Medicare is that if cancerous lesions are found using a scan, then patients must follow up with a traditional colonoscopy anyway. Costs would be lower if everyone simply took the invasive route, where doctors can remove polyps on the spot.

As Medicare noted in its ruling, “If there is a relatively high referral rate [for traditional colonoscopy], the utility of an intermediate test such as CT colonography is limited.” In other words, duplication would be too pricey.

One problem is that what “works best” isn’t the same for everyone and invasive procedures are often avoided —  slowing early detection.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124268737705832167.html

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Shocker: Folks against hiking gas taxes to push fuel efficient cars

May 19, 2009

Ken’s Take: Virtually all economists agree that the way to shift people to hybrids and other fuel efficient vehicles is to impose a large gas tax — say, $2 per gallon.  That’s what the UK does now. 

I’d agree with the economists, except that I know the Feds would just waste the money. 

Predictabilty, most people — make that ‘almost all’ — think that hiking gas taxes is a very bad idea.  In other words, it’s political suicide.

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According to Rasmussen:

Only 22% of Americans are willing to spend more to buy an energy-efficient hybrid car to help the environment. Even last October, after record high prices at the pump, just 37% said they were more likely to buy a hybrid car than they were a year earlier.

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Given last year’s record-high gasoline prices and the still-fluctuating price at the pump, most Americans aren’t interested in the government tacking on any more, even in the name of fuel efficiency.

Just 10% of adults think the federal government should increase the tax on gasoline by a large amount as a way of encouraging people to buy more fuel-efficient cars … 81% oppose a large tax hike for that purpose, and 8% don’t know.

Americans also took a dim view of another car-focused tax when it was proposed earlier this year. Seventy-three percent (73%) rejected the idea of taxing drivers based on how many miles they drive to help fund the building and repair of roads and bridges. Only 18% supported a mileage tax.

In April of last year, 60% of Americans favored suspending the federal gas tax completely for the summer to offset soaring gas prices.

Full article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/gas_oil/81_oppose_gas_tax_hike_to_encourage_sales_of_more_efficient_cars

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From marketing ROI to AMP: the free ride is over …

May 19, 2009

Excerpted from Brandchannel, “Achieving Accountable Marketing: Six Critical Value Levers Must Be Pulled” by Michael Dunn, April 13, 2009

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Senior management continues to push marketers to demonstrate a strong return on investment, demanding more accountability and evidence that marketing investment is driving business growth.

It requires marketers to demonstrate disciplined planning, rigorous tracking and evaluation and, above all, continuous improvement in performance. They must also show cause and effect, quickly diagnose the root causes of any spending performance issues and make timely, fact-driven decisions to improve returns.

Call it accountable marketing performance (AMP), a goal that requires six “value levers” to be pulled effectively.

1. Strategy
This critical lever sets up a series of choices that inform most of the subsequent activities across the other levers. It encompasses a series of decisions about strategic marketing choices:

  • With which set or sets of customers does your company have the best business opportunities?
  • What are the most achievable behavioral responses from these target groups?
  • What unique benefits, attributes and ideas are most likely to elicit the desired behavioral response?
  • What specific brand or business challenges are standing in the way?

Getting smart and shared answers to these questions requires a fact-based foundation involving customer segmentation and targeting, customer-driven analysis, pathway modeling, brand equity modeling and purchase funnel analysis. When combined with equally valid qualitative insights and intuitive thinking, you create a strategic value proposition that is worth its weight in gold.

2. Content
The strategic foundation must be translated into compelling, engaging and medium-appropriate messaging ideas. The best content platforms originate from a magical combination of strategic insight and creative expression and connect in authentic yet emotionally compelling ways.

Most companies rely heavily on external agency partners at this lever. But it’s the best collaborative partnerships that inspire great work, and great content ideas can come from anywhere—agencies, similarly briefed internal teams pursuing independent and somewhat competitive paths, or single contributors who find inspiration on a walk or in the shower. Whatever the source, smart companies validate multiple messaging ideas with robust testing before deploying them across a full-scale creative campaign.

3. Marketing Vehicles
Effective vehicle choices should enable your messages to reach and connect with audiences in a timely, relevant, cost-effective and multi-platform way. But you must understand where your audiences interact with media or media-enabled experiences as well as their openness to receiving messages in that setting. You must understand the optimal strategic applications of each vehicle, their trade-offs and the underlying economics.

The wrong choices can endanger accountable marketing. You risk failure by mismatching vehicles with marketing objectives or audiences, or by having inadequate coverage across the mix. It’s equally dangerous to fail to weigh the underlying economics and potential revenue response dynamics. Finally, balance between new and traditional media is a must.

4. Investment Levels
This value lever should diagnose whether the overall marketing investment amount is too high or too low vis-à-vis the intrinsic financial return characteristics of the proposed marketing activities in relation to strategic marketing objectives. It also helps determine whether the amount invested in particular vehicles, programs or activities is too high, too low or just appropriate relative to intrinsic return characteristics and those of alternative investment options.

But it’s complicated. Marketing program returns are not static. Changes in brand maturity levels or competitive intensity can impact program-level returns. Changing media habits and changing cost dynamics of various vehicles can affect their returns. Nor are returns always linear. Despite such challenges, there’s considerable upside potential to this lever.

5. In-Market Execution
Great content still needs a great delivery mechanism; execution diligence ensures that your marketing content and your delivery mechanisms work together harmoniously.

Many tactical decisions underpin a successful and cost-effective campaign. Planning requires choices about reach and frequency, geographic coverage, and scheduling in light of insights around seasonality, purchase frequency and key decision points in the purchase cycle across all types of programs. Be warned: if poor in-market execution prevails, your failures may well be amplified in an embarrassingly public way through Web-based channels.

6. Fixed Cost Management
This lever aims for improved cost efficiency and effectiveness through both cost cutting and cost containment. Your fixed cost base depends on your mix of marketing programs and can account for 20 percent to 60 percent of the overall marketing budget. And savings can be redeployed into programs that may improve overall effectiveness.

This value lever requires applying a purchasing or procurement manager mindset. One way to start is by understanding the ratio of “working” to “non-working” spend on the fixed costs of marketing program production. If this ratio is off, try selectively applying strategic sourcing principles to pay a little less for what you buy, redefine some core programs so they can be executed more cost-effectively or re-engineer overall processes to reduce costs without compromising quality.

Accountable marketing performance is an achievable goal. By focusing on and unlocking the power of the six critical value levers, the marketing organization will prove its value to the business as a whole as the creative yet rational source of future growth.

Edit by NRV

Full article:
http://www.brandchannel.com/brand_speak.asp?bs_id=216

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Taxes going up? Call the movers (for your goods or your money or both)

May 18, 2009

Ken’s Take: Soaking the rich to cover governmental deficits has become the cure of choice — both Federally and in in high deficit states.   And, budget projections assume that the rich folks will just bend over — stay where they are, report the same earnings and just suck it up.

The problem is “behavioral economics” — when the game changes, people adjust to rearrange the gameboard to their best advantage.  To adjust to higher marginal rates people of means often shift income to lower tax alternatives (low tax locales, tax-free investments).  So, the taxing body (states or Feds) don’t end up realizing much of the anticipated gains.

Below are highlights from an article that spells out the effect …

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Excerpted from WSJ, “Soak the Rich, Lose the Rich”, May 18, 2009

Americans know how to use the moving van to escape high taxes.

Here’s the problem for states that want to pry more money out of the wallets of rich people. It never works because people, investment capital and businesses are mobile: They can leave tax-unfriendly states and move to tax-friendly states.

Americans are more sensitive to high taxes than ever before. The tax differential between low-tax and high-tax states is widening, meaning that a relocation from high-tax California or Ohio, to no-income tax Texas or Tennessee, is all the more financially profitable both in terms of lower tax bills and more job opportunities.

From 1998 to 2007, more than 1,100 people every day including Sundays and holidays moved from the nine highest income-tax states such as California, New Jersey, New York and Ohio and relocated mostly to the nine tax-haven states with no income tax, including Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Texas. We also found that over these same years the no-income tax states created 89% more jobs and had 32% faster personal income growth than their high-tax counterparts.

There are three unintended consequences from states raising tax rates on the rich.

First, some rich residents sell their homes and leave the state;

Second, those who stay in the state report less taxable income on their tax returns; and

Third, some rich people choose not to locate in a high-tax state.

Since many rich people also tend to be successful business owners, jobs leave with them or they never arrive in the first place.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124260067214828295.html

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Gallup: Poll: Majority of Americans 'pro-life'

May 18, 2009

Ken’s Take: Skirting the philosophical issues, I find this interesting from a political perspective.  I thought it was odd that a majority of Catholics voted for Obama given the clarity of his position on abortion rights and his track record of votes on the issue.

A few weeks after the inauguration, there was some chatter from the pulpit of our church about abortion — stimulated, I think, by Obama’s early exec directives to fund overseas abortions, etc.  Iy was as is pro-life Catholics were surprised that Obama really was pro-abortion rights.

At the time. I wondered whether there would be any backlash in the polls.  None seemed to materialize until this poll.  Why?  Apparently, the media attention surrounding the Notre Dame speech caused some folks — notably Catholics — to do a gut check.

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Reported in the Washington Times:

According to a Gallup poll released May 15 —  a majority of  Americans now say they are “pro-life” than “pro-choice”.  Specifically, A majority of respondents 51 percent are against the practice of abortion, while 42 percent classified themselves as being pro-choice.

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“This is the first time a majority of U.S. adults have identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking this question in 1995”

The findings represent “a significant shift from a year ago,” when 50 percent of the respondents were pro-choice and 44 percent pro-life.

61 percent of Democrats say they are pro-choice and 33 percent are pro-life

70 percent of Republicans say they are pro-life and 26 percent are pro-choice

In 2008, half of women were pro-choice; now the number stands at 44 percent.

Among men, the findings are more pronounced: 49 percent identified themselves as pro-choice a year ago; the number fell to 39 percent this year. A clear majority of men 54 percent are now pro-life, compared with 46 percent a year ago.

It seems a change in the White House has prompted the change of heart. The president’s position has been the most radical pro-abortion of any American president.

“With the first pro-choice president in eight years already making changes to the nation’s policies on funding abortion overseas, expressing his support for the Freedom of Choice Act, and moving toward rescinding federal job protections for medical workers who refuse to participate in abortion procedures,”

Excerpted from Wash Times
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/16/poll-more-americans-pro-life/print/

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Gallup: Poll: Majority of Americans ‘pro-life’

May 18, 2009

Ken’s Take: Skirting the philosophical issues, I find this interesting from a political perspective.  I thought it was odd that a majority of Catholics voted for Obama given the clarity of his position on abortion rights and his track record of votes on the issue.

A few weeks after the inauguration, there was some chatter from the pulpit of our church about abortion — stimulated, I think, by Obama’s early exec directives to fund overseas abortions, etc.  Iy was as is pro-life Catholics were surprised that Obama really was pro-abortion rights.

At the time. I wondered whether there would be any backlash in the polls.  None seemed to materialize until this poll.  Why?  Apparently, the media attention surrounding the Notre Dame speech caused some folks — notably Catholics — to do a gut check.

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Reported in the Washington Times:

According to a Gallup poll released May 15 —  a majority of  Americans now say they are “pro-life” than “pro-choice”.  Specifically, A majority of respondents 51 percent are against the practice of abortion, while 42 percent classified themselves as being pro-choice.

image

“This is the first time a majority of U.S. adults have identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking this question in 1995”

The findings represent “a significant shift from a year ago,” when 50 percent of the respondents were pro-choice and 44 percent pro-life.

61 percent of Democrats say they are pro-choice and 33 percent are pro-life

70 percent of Republicans say they are pro-life and 26 percent are pro-choice

In 2008, half of women were pro-choice; now the number stands at 44 percent.

Among men, the findings are more pronounced: 49 percent identified themselves as pro-choice a year ago; the number fell to 39 percent this year. A clear majority of men 54 percent are now pro-life, compared with 46 percent a year ago.

It seems a change in the White House has prompted the change of heart. The president’s position has been the most radical pro-abortion of any American president.

“With the first pro-choice president in eight years already making changes to the nation’s policies on funding abortion overseas, expressing his support for the Freedom of Choice Act, and moving toward rescinding federal job protections for medical workers who refuse to participate in abortion procedures,”

Excerpted from Wash Times
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/16/poll-more-americans-pro-life/print/

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Maryland Throws Out Minimum Pricing

May 18, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “State Law Targets ‘Minimum Pricing'” By Joseph Pereira, Apr 28, 2009

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In a move that could lead to lower prices for consumers across the country, Maryland has passed a law that prohibits manufacturers from requiring retailers to charge minimum prices for their goods.

The law, which takes effect Oct. 1, takes aim at agreements that many manufacturers have been forcing on retailers, requiring them to charge minimum prices on certain products. The practice has surged since a controversial 2007 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that no longer makes such agreements automatically illegal under federal antitrust law.

Under the new state law, retailers doing business in Maryland — as well as state officials — can sue manufacturers that impose minimum-pricing agreements. The law also covers transactions in which consumers in Maryland buy goods on the Internet, even when the retailer is based out of state. That could potentially affect manufacturers throughout the country.

Minimum-pricing agreements keep retail profit margins higher, which in turn keeps retailers from pressuring manufacturers to lower the wholesale prices they pay for those goods. Suppliers also think that eliminating pricing competition can help retailers spend more money promoting their products to consumers. But certain retailers — particularly online ones — that attract customers because of low prices say the agreements stifle competition and gouge consumers.

Maryland’s legislation is one of a series of recent initiatives aimed at circumventing the Supreme Court decision … “Today there are an estimated 5,000 companies that have implemented minimum-pricing policies, much of it happening in the wake of the Supreme Court decision.”

One company with a minimum-pricing policy is Kolcraft Enterprises Inc., a supplier of bassinets and strollers sold by Wal-Mart Stores Inc … Kolcraft requires retailers to charge a minimum price of $159.99 for its Contours Classique 3-in-1 Bassinet. Wal-Mart’s price is $169.88. The price dictated by Kolcraft for its Options Tandem Stroller is $219.99; Wal-Mart charges $219.98.

The agreement states that the policy is intended, among other things, “to protect all Kolcraft and Kolcraft-licensed brands from diminution.”

Without such legislation, retailers had little hope of prevailing against a manufacturer who requires minimum pricing. “One must show that a manufacturer basically has greater than a 30% market share … and few manufacturers wield such market power in the U.S.

 

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124087840110661643.html

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A junk food tax ? … This stuff gets nuttier by the day

May 15, 2009

Ken’s Take: Does anybody really believe that the current and prospective gov’t spending spree won’t force broad based tax increases?  Rather than hit the problem head on with individual income tax boosts, Washington appears to be going the indirect route — raising business taxes (aka “closing loopholes), capping & trading, and taxing products and services.  The indirect taxes get passed along to individuals via price increases, so businesses — not government — end up looking (emphasis on “looking”) like the bad guys.

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From IBD, “Ill-Conceived Taxes”, May 14 

Rather than cut back on other programs, the Washington solution is to raise new taxes. To fund health care, the Senate Finance Committee is thinking about placing levies on soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, cigarettes, health savings accounts and junk food, and taxing, for the first time, employer-provided health care benefits.

The public needs to understand that it will be paying more for goods and services in return for national health care. Grocery bills will be higher; that bottle of wine that should go with dinner might have to be left on the store shelf instead; a cold Coke on a hot summer day would be a rare luxury rather than a frequent pleasure;guilty indulgences could simply become unaffordable to many.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=327108098260411

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Ad agency: "We think you should put the CEO in the commercial" … CEO to ad agency: "You’re hired"

May 15, 2009

Excerpted from Brandchannel, “Risky Business: When Personalities Promote Brands” by Mya Frazier, April 20, 2009

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Including marketers—or any other employee for that matter—as brand representatives in marketing campaigns raises a bevy of questions, especially considering the propensity for real people to get into trouble.

Think Kate Moss snorting cocaine in a British tabloid and the immediate scrubbing out by H&M, Chanel and Burberry of the supermodel’s image in ads. Or consider Kobe Bryant. Or Michael Vick. Or Michael Phelps. The list of brand representatives falling prey to their own humanity goes on and on. It’s why fictional brand icons, from the Pillsbury Doughboy to Tony the Tiger, remain so popular in the history of advertising.

By branding around execs and other employees, brands might save money… however, CEOs and marketers are not the most trusted people these days.

It’s certainly arguable that the inclusion of employees is an inherently risky venture, though perhaps not in the trainwreck style of Moss.

The popularity of celebrity spokesmen (think William Shatner for Priceline.com or Dennis Haysbert for Allstate) remains relatively steady, perhaps for the degree of separation from the company. After all, if a scandal erupts, most consumers understand that despite being held up as the personification of the brand, the celebrity isn’t the brand.

However, using a marketer or other employee is an entirely different beast. It’s the ultimate merger of person and brand. They embody the company more completely simply by being an employee. He or she also bears a level of responsibility and accountability for corporate actions, especially a brand’s environmental impact, particularly if the campaign carries a green message.

That’s perhaps why when employees such as marketers are held up publicly as the stewards of a brand, critics are even more emboldened to attack.

The inclusion of “real” people—such as Apple’s Steve Jobs, Sprint’s Gary Foresee or the Body Shop’s late Anita Roddick—arguably brings a level of authenticity to ad campaigns in a way the no-name commercial actor can’t. But striking the right tone is not easy.

“Consumers demand more authentic connections with brands. Authenticity is one of the six drivers of brand credibility in my book. Transparency is another one, and in a transparent environment consumers can quickly vet out what the CEO believes and stands for anyway, so the executive might as well be proactive.” 

Building trust, of course, is key. And when claims of going green are made, consumers can sense when brand representatives are coloring the truth.

Edit by NRV

Full article:http://www.brandchannel.com/start1.asp?fa_id=474

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Tax Increases Could Kill the Recovery … and, oh yeah, will hit your pocketbook.

May 14, 2009

Ken’s Take: Anybody who thinks that they’ll be untouched by massive tax hikes is likely to be disappointed.  Somebody has to pay for the current and proposed spending binge — and there just aren’t enough rich guys making enough money to foot the bill.  Secure your wallet.

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According to economist Martin Feldstein: 

The barrage of tax increases proposed in President Barack Obama’s budget could, if enacted by Congress, kill any chance of an early and sustained recovery.

Even if the proposed tax increases are not scheduled to take effect until 2011, households will recognize the permanent reduction in their future incomes and will reduce current spending accordingly. Higher future tax rates on capital gains and dividends will depress share prices immediately and the resulting fall in wealth will cut consumer spending further. Lower share prices will also raise the cost of equity capital, depressing business investment in plant and equipment.

The Obama budget calls for tax increases of more than $1.1 trillion over the next decade.

Mr. Obama’s biggest proposed tax increase is the cap-and-trade system of requiring businesses to buy carbon dioxide emission permits. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the proposed permit auctions would raise about $80 billion a year and that these extra taxes would be passed along in higher prices to consumers. Anyone who drives a car, uses public transportation, consumes electricity or buys any product that involves creating CO2 in its production would face higher prices.

CBO says … that the cap-and-trade price increases resulting from a 15% cut in CO2 emissions would cost the average household roughly $1,600 a year, ranging from $700 in the lowest-income quintile to $2,200 in the highest-income quintile. But while the cap-and-trade tax rises with income, the relative burden is greatest for low-income households. According to the CBO, households in the lowest-income quintile spend more than 20% of their income on energy intensive items (primarily fuels and electricity), while those in the highest-income quintile spend less than 5% on those products.

The next-largest tax increase:  increasing the tax rates on the very small number of taxpayers with incomes over $250,000. The revenue estimates don’t  take into account the extent to which the higher marginal tax rates would cause those taxpayers to reduce their taxable incomes — by changing the way they are compensated, increasing deductible expenditures, or simply earning less — it overstates the resulting increase in revenue.

The third major tax increase: changing the taxation of foreign-source income. While some extra revenue could no doubt come from ending the tax avoidance gimmicks that use dummy corporations in the Caribbean, most of the projected revenue comes from disallowing corporations to pay lower tax rates on their earnings in countries like Germany, Britain and Ireland. The purpose of the tax change is not just to raise revenue but also to shift overseas production by American firms back to the U.S. by reducing the tax advantage of earning profits abroad.

But, bringing production back to be taxed at the higher U.S. tax rate would raise the cost of capital and make the products less competitive in global markets. American corporations will therefore have an incentive to sell their overseas subsidiaries to foreign firms. That would leave future profits overseas, denying the Treasury Department any claim on the resulting tax revenue. And new foreign owners would be more likely to use overseas suppliers than to rely on inputs from the U.S. The net result would be less revenue to the Treasury and fewer jobs in America.

Excerpted from WSJ. May 13, 2009:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124217336075913063.html#mod=djemEditorialPage

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"Hyperlocal": A New Model for Online News?

May 14, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “‘Hyperlocal’ Web Sites Deliver News Without Newspapers”, by Claire Cain Miller and Brad Stone, April 13, 2009

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A number of Web start-up companies are creating so-called hyperlocal news sites that let people zoom in on what is happening closest to them, often without involving traditional journalists.

The sites collect links to articles and blogs and often supplement them with data from local governments and other sources. They might let a visitor know about an arrest a block away, the sale of a home down the street and reviews of nearby restaurants.

Internet companies have been trying to develop such sites for more than a decade, in part as a way to lure local advertisers to the Web. But the notion of customized news has taken on greater urgency as some newspapers have stopped printing and with the news business being in “a difficult time period right now, between what was and what will be.”

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Of course, like traditional media, the hyperlocal sites have to find a way to bring in sufficient revenue to support their business. And so far, they have had only limited success selling ads. 

One problem is that the number of readers for each neighborhood-focused news page is inherently small. “Advertisers want that kind of targeting, but they also want to reach more people, so there’s a paradox.”

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One of the most ambitious hyperlocal sites is EveryBlock, which has created sites for 11 American cities, including New York, Seattle, Chicago and San Francisco.

It fills those sites with links to news articles and posts from local bloggers, along with data feeds from city governments, with crime reports, restaurant inspections, and notices of road construction and film shoots.

That raises the question of what these hyperlocal sites will do if newspapers, a main source of credible information, go out of business. “They rely on pulling data from other sources, so they really can’t function if news organizations disappear.”

But many hyperlocal entrepreneurs say they are counting on a proliferation of blogs and small local journalism start-ups to keep providing content.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/technology/start-ups/13hyperlocal.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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Uh-oh … Burn rate on Social Security and Medicare Programs accelerates.

May 13, 2009

Ken’s Take: It was widely report yesterday that updated projections show that the Social Security Trust Fund will run out by 2037, and that the Medicare Trust Fund will be insolvent by 2017. 

Note that the emphasis is on the recession’s lost jobs (fewer workers chipping in payroll taxes) and the need for heathcare reform (which I thought was going to increase the budget).

Also note that Bush tried to address these entitlements and was repulsed by Congress — which doesn’t want to tackle this “3rd rail” issue … and Obama’s “Make Work Pay” refundable tax credit is justified as a credit against payroll taxes which fund SS and Medicare.  Let’s see, if you’ve got a shortfall and you pay less in, wouldn’t you expect the shortfall to get bigger ?

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From ABC News:

The forecasts for Social Security and Medicare trust funds have worsened this past year under the weight of the recession … the Social Security trust fund will run out by 2037, four years earlier than last year’s report had predicted, while the Medicare hospital trust fund will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than projected last year.

Both entitlement programs are suffering due to rising unemployment,…  beginning in 2011, a “demographic tsunami”of nearly 80 million retiring baby boomers only exacerbates the problems.

Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue … said now was not time to panic, describing the reports as “some disappointing but not unexpected news.”

“We should be neither casual nor hysterical about the revised insolvency dates,” Astrue said. “The Social Security system is sound and will weather this recession.”

Ken says: Sounds like DIck Fuld right before the Lehman collapse, doesn’t it?.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Politics/story?id=7571108&page=1

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Web Marketers Face Privacy Challenge in Europe

May 13, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “Use of Web Tracking Tool Raises Privacy Issue in Britain”, by Kevin J. O’Brien, April 15, 2009

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The European Commission threatened Britain with sanctions for allowing an Internet service provider to use a new advertising technology to track the Web movements of customers.

The case could become a test for the limits of ads that aim at online behavior. Supporters of the practice say it has the potential to transform advertising by allowing marketers to show Internet users only ads that are considered relevant to them, based on their surfing habits.

But the technique has come under scrutiny because of concern that personal privacy could be violated as companies seek more specific data on individual users. 

Many companies involved in Internet advertising, including Google and other social networking services, use behavioral targeting. But because this new technology, “Phorm”, receives actual Web-use records from service providers, it says its technology is more accurate.

An Internet association that has led the protest against Phorm in Britain, Open Rights Group in London, said the government had ignored European law to accommodate businesses interested in developing lucrative Internet advertising models.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/global/15privacy.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=print

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WH says "no new jobs this year" … how un-stimulating !

May 12, 2009

Extracted from IBD, “What About Jobs?”, May 11, 2009

One of President Obama’s campaign pledges was to “create or save” more than three million jobs in his first two years in office — not all that ambitious considering the economy has created 1.5 million jobs annually since 1980.

K-Note: That claim morphed to “save or create 3.5 million jobs” via the $750 billion stimulus.

As of May 1, just $29 billion in stimulus spending, or about 3.7% of the total, had gone out. In a $14 trillion economy, that’s nothing.

The new White House economic forecast contains more than one stunning revelation. Tops on our list is that no net new jobs are expected this year, even as the economy recovers.

Now, Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, says don’t expect any new jobs this year — and that unemployment could reach 9.5%, up from the current 8.9%, even though she expects the economy to grow 3.5% in the fourth quarter.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=326933960257860

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If so many people want hybrid cars … how come ?

May 12, 2009

Ken’s Take: Both GM and Chrysler will be pushed by Team Obama to make the itsy-bitsy hybrids that “everybody wants.”

According to the WSJ: hybrids still  aren’t getting any traction in the market and, now, Toyota is beefing up the Prius with more size and more power.

Hmmmm.

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 Excerpted from WSJ: “Hybrids Battle for Green”, May 11, 2009

With sales of hybrid vehicles sinking, … Toyota,is rolling out a major U.S. ad push for its 2010 Prius, the third generation of the world’s top-selling hybrid vehicle.

Toyota’s new ad for its third-generation Prius shows a planet in harmony, with humanized clouds, fields and flowers bursting into song.

Some experts believe that price should be a big factor in the campaigns; hybrids typically cost thousands of dollars more than comparable gas-burning models. “They need to emphasize not only the social benefits of hybrids but also the economics … one of the big hang-ups with these cars is that they cost more.”

The allure of hybrids has waned with the decline in oil prices. Prius sales have fallen about 50% from Jan. 1 to April 30. F or all their earth-friendly cachet, hybrid cars represent only 2% of the light-vehicle market.

“It’s stunning … despite all the successes of the Prius and the emphasis on global warming, we can’t get significant hybrid penetration.”

“The big barrier for mass consumers is they worried that the Prius was underpowered and small …  the newly remodeled Prius is slightly bigger, with more horsepower.

The initial Prius advertising largely targeted the early adopter and the tree-hugging crowd, while the second generation of the vehicle was seen as the family’s second or commuter car. This campaign is about the “mainstreaming of the product.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124199018707904593.html

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Innovators’ success formula … don’t listen to users

May 12, 2009

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “Radical Design, Radical Results” by Julia Hanna, February 19, 2009

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When furniture designer Herman Miller presented a prototype of its sleek, mesh Aeron chair to a consumer focus group, many asked if they could see a finished, upholstered version.

Innovative product design can be a risky proposition. Yet as consumer purchases become increasingly driven by emotion, the competitive advantage gained by how a product “speaks” to a customer is clear. Just think about how Apple began its resurrection in 1998 with the unthinkable design of computers made of translucent blue, orange, and pink plastic, the original iMac.

Despite the importance of industrial design, little theory exists on how companies might go about creating a successful design strategy.

“Researchers have been investigating technological innovation for decades, but we know almost nothing about how companies manage design innovation.” .

For a study, Profs. Verganti and Dell’Era focused on the Italian furniture industry… they also divided the corresponding sample of 100 manufacturers into innovators and imitators.

Verganti says that design innovation often involves a high degree of uncertainty in terms of market success. “It’s very hard to understand what people want,” he says. “If I make a car that can brake in 10 yards instead of 50, that’s a quantifiable advantage that is easy to understand. But if I decide to create a computer out of translucent, colored plastic, it’s much more subjective. People will love it, or they won’t.”

Focus groups and market research can help to define a product, of course, but Verganti has found that design-driven innovation is not user-centered. Instead, it comes from within the organization. “Rather than being pulled by user requirements,” he wrote recently, “design-driven innovation is pushed by a firm’s vision about possible new product meanings … that could diffuse in society.”

“Apple is a company that is pushed by a vision,” Verganti says. “Steve Jobs has said that the market doesn’t always know what it wants. Companies that do radical innovation do not listen to users; they eventually value market feedback, but first they propose things to the users.”

In the face of this market uncertainty, Verganti has found that companies adopt one of three different strategies:

  1. Launch and see. The company launches a variety of products, and then measures market reaction to each, relying on the selective capability of consumers to determine which products to focus on.
  2. See and launch. The company employs some sort of research process and then launches products based on its findings.
  3. Wait and see. The company allows others to experiment with various products, observes what is most successful, and reacts accordingly.

In Verganti’s study of the Italian furniture industry, one would expect those who wait and see to have the least amount of variety in their product line. After all, if the imitators decide to stand back and observe what is most successful, wouldn’t they choose to copy just a few, choice products? Conversely, it would seem that the innovative companies would probably have higher levels of variety in their products because of the experiments they conduct.

Instead, the results showed just the opposite.

While the cost of experimentation in the furniture industry is relatively low, Verganti and his colleague found that the innovator companies actually used a see and launch strategy, conducting research in order to understand what sort of product language might be most successful. (This research is less of the focus-group variety and more of a broad-based assessment of cultural trends and scenario building.)

“Innovators avoid proposing a wide range of product signs and languages as a way to protect brand identity,” says Verganti. “They tend to adopt strategies that allow customers to easily reconnect specific product signs to their brands.”

In contrast, imitators show a greater variety in their product portfolio. They observe what innovators do and how the market reacts. But the feedback they receive is initially so ambiguous, with several languages coexisting, that they eventually imitate everything.

“The confusion that this creates in the market is called semiotic pollution,” Verganti says. “Imitators can be successful if they wait four or five years to determine what they should produce. But in the beginning it’s not clear which product is the winner. So when it comes to product languages, imitation is a very expensive strategy.”

Do these findings have implications beyond the design-heavy world of the Italian furniture industry? Regardless of the product in question, Verganti believes that companies need to consider the importance of design.

“In every industry, sooner or later, there is a radical change in the language of its products,” he says. “So the point for companies is, do they want to lead the change, or do they want to suffer the change?”

Edit by NRV

Full article:http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5850.html

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Words that Work … Rebranding ‘Global Warming’

May 11, 2009

Ken’s Take: While contexted around the global warming debate, there’s an important lesson re: ,essaging using “words that work.”

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According to the NY Times:

Environmental issues consistently rate near the bottom of public worry, according to many public opinion polls. A Pew Research Center poll released in January found global warming last among 20 voter concerns; it trailed issues like addressing moral decline and decreasing the influence of lobbyists.

Why? Well, the problem with global warming, some environmentalists believe, is “global warming.”

The term turns people off, fostering images of shaggy-haired liberals, economic sacrifice and complex scientific disputes

According to the messaging group EcoAmerica; “We know why it’s lowest … When someone thinks of global warming, they think of a politicized, polarized argument. When you say ‘global warming,’ a certain group of Americans think that’s a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues.”

The answer … is to speak in TALKING POINTS aspirational language about shared American ideals, like freedom, prosperity, independence and self-sufficiency while avoiding jargon and details about policy, science, economics or technologyis …  and to  reframe the issue using different language.

For example:

Global Warming becomes Climate Crisis or Deteriorating Atmosphere

Cap & Trade becomes Pollution Reduction Refund

Carbon becomes Pollution

From: “Seeking to Save the Planet, With a Thesaurus”,
May 2, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/us/politics/02enviro.html?_r=1&sq=EcoAmerica%20&st=cse&scp=1&pagewanted=print

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If you thought the bridge to nowhere was a bad idea …

May 8, 2009

… then sit down (absolutely necessary) and watch the attached 3-minute video clip which presents the John Murtha AIrport in Johnston, PA.

The highlights:

$150 million of government pork invested

Almost $1 million of stimulus funds

3 flights per day a.. to / from DC

20 passengers per day

These guys have absolutely no conscience …

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ABC TV video
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=13140642

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Price Only One Part of the Value Proposition …So Say Companies Trying to Raise Prices

May 8, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “With Shoppers Pinching Pennies, Some Big Retailers Get the Message”, by Stuart Elliott, April 13, 2009

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As shoppers remain reluctant to open their wallets, stores are still scrambling to adjust advertising and marketing strategies to play up the value aspects of what they sell. Even as retail sales data for March suggested improving results at some chains, consumers are hesitating to buy much beyond groceries, gasoline, vitamins and candy.

Much of the focus on value defines the term in a way that will resonate with choosy shoppers. Value can mean more than low prices, but with unemployment high — and consumer confidence low — many are fixating on cost.

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That is reflected by a change in approach at Home Depot, which introduced a campaign that carries the theme “More saving. More doing.” The theme replaced one used since 2003, “You can do it. We can help.”

J. C. Penney, whose campaign carries the theme “Every day matters,” recently added phrases to its ads like “Style, quality and price matter.”

Whole Foods Market is promoting the lower prices of its private-label brand, 365 Everyday Value, in regional ads with headlines like “Sticker shock, but in a good way” and “No wallets were harmed in the buying of our 365 Everyday Value products.”

* * * * *

Target, the discount retailer, began running a value campaign on April 5 in newspapers in 19 major markets. The headlines asked, “Why pay more for more?” The campaign seeks to explain the value proposition within the longtime ad theme, “Expect more. Pay less.”

In May, Target plans to advertise with “a whole new articulation” of the promise inherent in the “Expect more. Pay less” theme.

Before the recession, Target “fell into a trap,” and was “not doing as much as we should have been doing” with the “Pay less” part of the theme.

As the principal Target rival, Wal-Mart Stores, made hay with ads carrying the theme “Save money. Live better,” ads for Target played up the stylishness of merchandise or featured the designers behind its apparel and home furnishings.

“‘Expect more’ is the true differentiating play for Target if Wal-Mart owns price. The right price is only the beginning of the conversation.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/media/13adcol.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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Employees Are Becoming the Newest TV Stars

May 8, 2009

Excerpted from Forbes, “Forget Celebrities. Employees Make Compelling Ad Stars In Tough Times” By Helen Coster, Apr 17, 2009

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A few employees who haven’t lost their jobs suddenly have a new one: advertising.

At a time when consumers are distrustful of big companies and their leaders, marketers are putting employees in ads in an effort to make their brands seem more transparent and trustworthy. These ads, from companies like Ford Motor, ExxonMobil, and Alabama Power, among others, are geared to make customers and employees feel better about these companies. Honda Motor Co. features at least 30 employees, including Chief Executive Takeo Fukui, and a few luminaries, including race car driver Danica Patrick, in three seven-and-a-half minute online films dubbed “Dream the Impossible” …

Nationwide Insurance is taking a similar approach with its new TV, print and radio campaign called “I Am On Your Side.” The TV ads feature Nationwide claims adjusters and customer service representatives talking about their experiences on the job. In one spot, property claims representative Terry Medley talks about how people prepare for a “prize fight” before they talk to an insurance adjuster. “We wanted to come across as authentic and genuine,” says Nationwide spokesman Michael Switzer …

[T]he TV spots … mark a sharp departure from the company’s previous ad effort. Themed “Life Comes at You Fast,” it featured celebrities such as Kevin Federline and Fabio showing the bad things that can happen to people when they aren’t prepared.

In some cases, marketers hope to demonstrate that by treating employees well, they will do good things for customers too. A current print ad from Verizon Wireless talks up innovation by touting its training programs for employees, including Philip Morisky, who is pictured teaching his son how to ride a bike. The tagline: “Our people. Our network.”

Companies tend to trot out employees as spokespeople when the economy or the company is in trouble. “Because of the financial crisis, there’s a growing anger about big companies in particular … People think that CEOs are overpaid, that big companies don’t respect the environment. … This is the natural reaction of some companies to say: “We’re on the consumers’ side. We’re not the enemy.”

Will people really buy more cars if they relate to the Average Joe in a Honda ad? “I think in the long term [they will],” says Honda’s Center. “It’s always controversial when you do institutional advertising but, as a marketer, you have to be able to juggle a couple of balls. One of them is to sell products and generate revenue in near term while continuing to build the foundation your house is standing on. That’s why we’re doing these things, even in these tough times.”

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Full Article:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/17/honda-nationwide-ads-cmo-network-employee-ads.html?feed=rss_leadership_cmonetwork

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G.M. Seeking Stake in Fiat … huh ?

May 7, 2009

Ken’s Take: Let me be sure that I got this right: Chrysler is bankrupt and in bankruptcy proceedings.  GM is bankrupt but is trying to duck bankruptcy proceedings. Fiat gets a part of Chrysler without paying a dime for it.  GM snags a part of Fiat.  So, one bankrupt company is bailing another, using an Italian auto juggernaut as the conduit.

I must be missing something

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From the NY Times:

Four years after paying $2 billion to extricate itself from a partnership with Fiat, General Motors is seeking a stake in the Italian automaker …

G.M., despite its precarious financial position, now feels it has a bargaining chip with its Latin American unit, and is negotiating with Fiat over what it might get in return. G.M. executives are holding out for at least 30 percent of the Fiat Auto Group.

Fiat and G.M. frequently clashed during their five-year partnership, which began in 2000. Fiat engineers said G.M. was too cautious and unwilling to embrace new technology that would have created cleaner, more fuel-efficient engines. In Germany, meanwhile, Opel engineers became convinced that Fiat didn’t share its focus on detail or quality standards.

Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/business/global/07auto.html?scp=1&sq=gm%20fiat&st=cse

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The Next Big Thing … Ping Pong?

May 7, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Anheiser Gets Set to Play a Whole New Game,” By Matthew Futterman, Apr 27, 2009

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A group of sports and entertainment marketers is betting ping pong will be the next game to sweep the nation, and Anheuser-Busch InBev’s U.S. unit is getting into the action.

Anheuser-Busch … has signed on as the lead sponsor of the Bud Light Hard Bat Ping Pong Tournament, which started last month.

The big brewer is backing Robert Friedman, president of media and entertainment for New York commercial-production company @Radical Media, and several major partners, who think ping pong could be the next Texas Hold ‘Em, the card game featured in the highly successful World Series of Poker.

The nostalgia factor, made keener by the recession, is one reason they are confident of ping pong’s appeal. “This is about the residual goodwill we all feel for the better times we grew up with,” says Mr. Friedman. “This conjures up family.”

As the idea for the new tourney began to jell, Anheuser-Busch was re-evaluating, and even shedding, several longtime deals with athletes and major sports teams … In came ping pong. With exclusive sponsorships for mainstream teams and sports becoming ever more expensive, Anheuser-Busch needed to strike a balance …

The organizers know they have to come up with an innovative approach to televising a game that in the past has been hard to follow because of the speed and the size of the ball. Even if they can, could this really be the next poker?

Poker already had a long-established mystique, built on images of high rollers in deluxe Las Vegas hotel suites, before Internet gambling and the World Series of Poker inspired a wider appreciation of the mental calculations taking place around the table behind low-brimmed caps and sunglasses.

Ping pong, by contrast, is more closely associated with suburban basements and harsh fluorescent lights. Even so, the International Olympic Committee says table tennis is the world’s leading participation sport, with 40 million competitive players world-wide and tens of millions more playing for fun …

Competition started in March, with local Anheuser-Busch distributors supplying Bud Light-branded ping pong tables to some 4,600 bars where regional competitions are under way. Winners can land an invitation to the tournament finals and play for the $100,000 prize in Las Vegas in late June …

That event, which will also include professionals, will be the focus of a two-hour television special that the organizers plan to air on Walt Disney’s ESPN in September.

Mr. Friedman and Jordan Wynn, executive of Mark Gordon Co., say they noticed ping pong re-emerging in popular culture over the past year. The posse on the HBO series “Entourage” played during an episode, for example, and hip-hop star 50 Cent had a ping-pong theme at his birthday party.

“The question was could we take this game out of the basement and the cluttered garages,” says Mr. Friedman. “We think the timing is just right.”

Mr. Wynn goes so far as to suggest ping pong has sex appeal. “It’s taking on this cool cultural space of short-shorts and retro headbands, and it’s kind of goofy, but it’s also got people who take it very seriously,” Mr. Wynn says. “It’s poker eight years ago.”

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124078190514657141.html

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Twitter Loses Touch … Fritters Away SUbscribers

May 7, 2009

Excerpted from Ad Age, “Why Twitter’s Reach Is Limited” By Abbey Klaassen, April 28, 2009

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Over the past few weeks we’ve seen countless stories about the “Oprah effect” on Twitter — TechCrunch suggested more than one million people signed up and many a blog linked to Hitwise data that suggested the talk-show doyenne’s endorsement of the service led to a 43% spike in Twitter traffic.

While those numbers are important, the breathless reports have not accounted for what people do after they sign up for a Twitter account. Creating a Twitter account doesn’t equal becoming an uber-user, or even a casual user, of the micro-blogging site. Nielsen Online data suggest more than 60% of people who sign up for Twitter abandon the service.

David Martin, VP-primary research at Nielsen Online, posted the data on the company’s blog, noting that Twitter’s retention rate — the percentage of a given month’s audience that comes back the following month — hovers around 40%. So that means only 40% of the people who visited Twitter last month will come back this month. However, that number is slightly higher than the 30% retention rate Twitter saw before Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement

One problem, Mr. Martin noted, is that it’s very hard to grow reach when that much of your audience fails to return month after month. He plotted the reach and retention rates of the major websites Nielsen follows and came up with an audience curve that suggests that at Twitter’s current retention rate, it will only reach about 10% of online consumers …

“Twitter has really big hype — it’s the hype that much bigger sites like MySpace or Facebook had when they were coming up … But it’s just not going to live up to that hype in the long run, audience-wise, if it can’t get retention up.”

He also looked at MySpace and Facebook’s retention in their first few years, when their reach looked more like Twitter’s current reach. Even then, the two larger social networks had steadily growing retention rates of more than 40%, which moved closer to 60% as time went on. Twitter’s retention rates, on the other hand, have fluctuated without passing 40%.

Twitter’s user interface can be confusing to people who aren’t familiar with the service, from the hard-to-follow conversation threads to the codes for direct messaging, “retweeting” and “hashtags.” … On the flip side, said Mr. Martin, to “keep people engaged there has to be interesting content. And Oprah, to a large number of Americans, is interesting content. If people continue to stay engaged and are compelled to stay on the site, there’s no reason that engagement shouldn’t go up. But it’s yet to be seen.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=136318

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Does anybody really think that Chrysler will survive?

May 6, 2009

Ken’s Take: Let’s see …. a union controlled company, run by Italian automakers, cranking out inherently unprofitable clown cars.  Does that sound like a formula for success to you?  Call me cynical, but I’m betting under on this one.

Great editorial in WSJ today titled “Return of Le Car”.   Worth reading.  Hear are a few of the highlights.

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Last week Pres. Obama said that he hoped you would buy an “American car” — though apparently not one built in a red state in a plant owned by Japanese or German investors. He meant a car built by a company headquartered in Detroit, even if the car itself is assembled in Mexico or Canada. How confusing.

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Chrysler would be in deep yogurt in any case amid the market collapse, but its other problem is a decent franchise in Jeeps, muscle cars, minivans and pickups — and nothing to meet Congress’s stiff new “corporate average” fuel economy rules, and nobody to supply the billions to develop such vehicles and (inevitably) bribe customers to drive them off the lots.

Daimler, its previous parent, certainly had no desire to fund such profitless extravagance. The Germans took a lot of guff but they’re the ones laughing now. They sold their majority stake in Chrysler just months after Democrats took over Congress, and just weeks after President Bush began blathering about “oil addiction” and echoing Democratic demands for stringent new fuel-mileage rules (after opposing them for years).

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Not since Renault teamed up with AMC to bring you Le Car has an odder pairing been seen — or a less promising one.

Credulous media accounts insist the only challenge now is whether Chrysler can hang on for two years until Fiat begins churning out U.S. versions of its popular European models in U.S. factories. Goodness.  Unless gasoline prices go to $5 a gallon,no one can be so foolish as  to believe making and selling teensy eurocars in the U.S. is anybody’s route to salvation. Even in Europe…  a move to bigger, more powerful cars is underway. Motorists are getting fatter and older — and unwilling to contort themselves to get in and out of a car … which ought to caution against any hope that the pixie car will sell particularly well in the U.S.

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Trying to beat Toyota at its own game is a nonstarter. Toyota sets a standard of quality and technology that all must meet — that’s the price of admission. But “what we have that Toyota does not have ?”

Some [Obama auto] task force members acknowledge that the drive for profitability is likely to collide with Mr. Obama’s fuel-efficiency and low-emission goals.”

When will Team Obama explain exactly how Chrysler is supposed to make money building the “green cars” Mr. Obama wants it to build.   You already know the answer: You, the taxpayer, have not finished chipping in to keep Fiat-Chrysler alive.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124157578117190427.html

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Some Brands Never Die: Liquidators License Bankrupt Brand Names

May 6, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “Brand Names Live After Stores Close”, by Amy Zipkin, April 14, 2009

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In the last year, a string of retailers have gone into bankruptcy — Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things, Circuit City and Fortunoff among them. But while the stores have disappeared, their names live on.

And the companies that have breathed new life into these brand names are, paradoxically, some of the same ones that had led the stores through their dying days — the liquidators.

Liquidators have bought the rights to use the names of Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things and Bombay, the onetime furniture retailer. The liquidators — who prefer to be known as asset recovery specialists — have also expressed an interest in buying the Circuit City and Fortunoff names.

Already, new merchandise with the Sharper Image name is available at retailers like Macy’s, J. C. Penney and Bed, Bath & Beyond. A new Web site for the Linens ’n Things brand, lnt.com, is up and running. In addition to the bedding and bath products the chain was known for, the site also carries toys, pet products and baby accouterments.

Liquidators spent about $175 million to acquire the Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things and Bombay names and predict a billion dollars a year in sales for Sharper Image and Linens ’n Things in each of the next five years.

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The value of brand names is being redefined, as “the liquidators are taking the definition of assets and extending them to the brands themselves.” 

The liquidators say they see themselves as brand licensing experts who will receive royalties for the products without the need to pay rent or a sales staff. “It’s not a capital-intensive business. It’s a royalty-driven business. It’s like an annuity.”

Those familiar with intellectual property rights say there is no guarantee that a revived brand will be successful after a retailer has gone under. The brands will compete with others that do not have troubled histories.  Still, with the recession continuing, merchandise with a familiar name may prove attractive to consumers.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/business/14liquidate.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

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Making Money in Magazines: Is It Time for a New Pricing Model?

May 6, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “In Switch, Magazines Think About Raising Prices”, by Stephanie Clifford, April 13, 2009

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Most big magazines’ subscriptions cost on average little more than a dollar an issue. But now, as they consider the decline in advertising and the success of magazines that have increased prices recently, some publishers are wondering whether they can raise their prices without losing subscribers.

“We’re realizing that the product is undervalued,” said the chief marketing officer of Hearst Magazines, which raised cover prices on more than half of its magazines last year and plans to raise subscription prices this year.

Publishers have long set low subscription prices and have even lost money doing so, assuming that the real money came from ads. Subscription revenue was gravy.

It is a “model where magazines essentially try to gain as many subscribers as they can and allow advertising to pay the bills.”

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“Think about the cost of a movie ticket. Think about the cost of your subscription for cable television. Think about the cost of going to a sporting event,” Mr. Clinton, the Hearst marketing chief, said. Those industries, he said, “have kept pace in passing on more of the cost to the consumer, and the consumer’s willing to pay for it.”

The Economist is leading the charge on expensive subscriptions, and its success is one reason publishers are rethinking their approaches. It is a news magazine with an extraordinarily high cover price — raised to $6.99 late last year — and subscription price, about $100 a year on average.

Even though The Economist is relatively expensive, its circulation has increased sharply in the last four years. Subscriptions are up 60 percent since 2004, and newsstand sales have risen 50 percent, according to the audit bureau.

“We get more money out of our readers than advertisers, and that’s a very different model,” said senior vice president for marketing in the Americas at the Economist Group. “We’ll never discount the kind of content we have.”

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The Economist’s readers, it could be argued, are professionals who can afford price increases. But one of the most popular and expensive mass magazines, People, has also been raising its prices without losing readers.

The subscription price for People has risen about 5 percent, to $104 a year, in the last four years. The cover price has risen 21 percent, to an average of $4.09 . In that time, People’s subscription and newsstand sales have both increased slightly.

“Our strategy right now is to maintain a premium price on both sides of the equation,” said the president and group publisher of Time Inc.’s (People’s) style and entertainment group.

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Interestingly, whether consumers pay $5 or $50 for a subscription does not affect their perception of the magazine, according to a study conducted four years ago by the media consultant Rebecca McPheters.

Given those findings, the price a consumer pays should not matter to advertisers, since it does not affect the reader’s attitude toward the magazine–“the fact is, the pricing comes as a result of what the consumer is willing to pay.”

Given the economy, it may not be “a propitious moment to launch this,” said Victor S. Navasky, chairman of The Columbia Journalism Review, but “to the extent that the publication is aimed at a segment of the population that can afford it, why not?”

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/media/13circ.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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School choice: kids or unions … don’t bet on the kids

May 5, 2009

I’m a big fan of charter schools and vouchers … the latter giving motivated families to send their children to provably better schools. 

Congress — with Obama approval —  is about to kill the demonstrably successful DC voucher program.  Why? Because kids don’t vote but union members do.  Pretty sad.

There are a sprinkling of articles today on the hypocrisy of government reps on the subject.  They boil down to this fundamental argument:

“Some hypocrisies are apparently more equal than others. If, for example, you are a politician who preaches “traditional values” and you get caught in a hotel with a woman who is not your wife, the press is going to have a field day with your tartuffery.

If, however, you are a pol who piously tells inner-city families that public schools are the answer — and you do this while safely ensconcing your own kids in some private haven — the press corps mostly winks.

As strong as the outright opposition may be, perhaps the biggest problem faced by these parents is the Beltway’s complicity in a smarmy double standard. Two weeks ago, the Heritage Foundation highlighted this double standard with the release of a new study showing that members of Congress are sending or have sent their children to private schools …  at a rate that’s more than three times the rate for rest of America.

For Democrats especially, their choice of a private school for their own families tends to make them opponents of choice for others. The bargain the teachers unions offer is this: We won’t fuss about private or parochial schools for your children, provided you don’t help any other kid get the same chance.”

From the Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124147923132785121.html

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Goldman to Repay TARP Funds…but Feds May Not Let Them!

May 5, 2009

The TARP saga continues …

Excerpted from New York Times, “Goldman Using Share Sale to Return Bailout Funds”, by Louise Story, April 15, 2009

Six months after accepting a financial lifeline from Washington, a newly profitable Goldman Sachs is pushing to return the billions of taxpayer dollars that it received in an effort to extricate itself from heightened government control.

If successful, Goldman would become the first major bank to return funds received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Such a step would probably enable Goldman — long one of the most lucrative places to work on Wall Street — to free itself from government-imposed restrictions on compensation.

It is unclear how quickly Goldman might be allowed to return the $10 billion it accepted last October. Goldman is not allowed to return the money without the approval of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, which both declined to comment on Monday.

One analyst comments, “Goldman can walk the halls of Congress waving a check, but is it in the best interest of the marketplace for them to pay it back?”

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Goldman said on Monday that it would seek to raise $5 billion by selling new common stock and use the proceeds, along with other funds, to repay the government.

“We just think that operating our business without the government capital would be an easier thing to do.  We’d be under less scrutiny, and under less pressure.”

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/15goldman.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

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Call it a push after 100 Days … the stock market, that is.

May 4, 2009

OK, so where do we stand in the market after 100 days of change & hope.

The bad news: right where we started .

The good news: right where we started.

Obama inherited a Dow that was hovering around 8,500 … higher around election time … lower after th election … then hanging in a narrow range.

After a sell-off to under 7,000  – the market has fought it’s way back into the range between 8,000 and 8,500.

So, I’ve got to stop saying that Obam killed the market (he did, but I don’t have the proof yet) … and other folks have to quit talking about an Obama rally. 

Fair enough ?

image

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Is it too soon to think about marketing AFTER the recession?

May 4, 2009

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “Marketing After the Recession”, John Quelch March 18, 2009

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Congratulations. Your business is surviving the recession. You made the necessary adjustments, weeded out under-performing distributors, shed unprofitable or unreliable customers, deleted poor-selling products from your portfolio, and concentrated your marketing dollars on media and channels that you could prove delivered a strong return on investment. You may have downsized, voluntarily or involuntarily, since the recession began; but at least you’re still in business.

Now, you are waiting for the recovery, the chance to again have some fun and make some money. Here are my seven top recommendations for marketers looking to plan ahead:

Focus on high-potential customers. Make sure you focus on building relationships with ambitious customers in growth industries where pent-up demand is going to be unleashed once the economy turns the corner. If you’re running a B2C business, focus on cash-rich or long-term-oriented consumers to lead you into recovery. But don’t forget to stock up to take advantage of the pent-up demand that will be unleashed once other consumers get their confidence back.

Don’t assume a return to normal. The longer and deeper the recession, the more likely consumers will adjust their attitudes and behaviors permanently. Their coping mechanisms may become ingrained and define a new normal. In addition, the competitive landscape will have changed. A competitive shakeout along with new product launches may mean consumers are looking at your products and services through new lenses. Listen closely to your customers and revise your market segmentation assumptions.

Assess your target customers’ trust in your brand. Clearly, trust in financial services brands has taken a beating. Many well-known brands like Merrill Lynch will simply never win back consumer confidence; if you are working for such a brand, dust off your CV and move on. But bad behavior in the financial services sector has bruised trust in all corporate brands. Confirm that your target customers still trust you but plan to add service support and hold their hand more firmly in the short term, even though your service quality, measured objectively, has remained constant.

Stay focused on costs. Many manufacturing industries (as opposed to services industries) are plagued by global overcapacity, relative even to pre-recession demand. Combined with excess inventories in the supply chain, especially in consumer durables, the result will be continuing downward pressure on prices. Economic recovery will not allow producers to let up on tightening cost controls and improving productivity.

Know your lead indicators. Every good marketer knows the specific indicators, macro or micro, that predict demand for his or her product in the next period. Use common sense. If the Wal-Mart parking lot looks less crowded, some consumers are probably migrating back to Target and vice versa.

Develop scenarios. How long the current recession will last is widely debated. And whether the eventual economic recovery will be gradual or dramatic is equally unknown. Marketers planning for 2009 and 2010 should bear in mind Peter Drucker’s wise advice: “A strategy is a sense of direction around which to improvise.” Know how you can source supplies and expand distribution in a hurry if demand suddenly spikes. Don’t wait for permission. Most companies will not begin reinvesting until the Wall Street Journal or Ben Bernanke officially declare the recovery underway. Get ahead of the crowd. Craft your recovery plan now, and pull the trigger when your lead indicators say go.

Smart hedging has outweighed smart marketing. The current recession has not been kind to marketers. In many multinationals, the positive financial impacts of recession-busting marketing plans have been obliterated by commodity price volatility and weaker-than-expected overseas earnings due to the unexpected strengthening of the dollar. Economic recovery will bring greater commodity price and exchange rate predictability. Marketing will again come to the fore as a differentiator between successful businesses and also-rans.

Edit by NRV
Full article:
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6139.html

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Is the honeymoon over for FREE user-generated content?

May 4, 2009

Excerpted from Slate, “Do You Think Bandwidth Grows on Trees” by Farhad Manjoo, April 14, 2009

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The darlings of the the Internet…websites built on user-generated content, might seem like an extension of the “Long Tail” concept (all you need are a website and users, right?), but this article points out that these ventures aren’t as profitable as you may think.  The large amount of storage and bandwidth needed for content means that companies need to find a way to cover this high storage and distribution cost if they plan to make a profit (or at least break-even).   Since services are typically free, they rely on advertising to cover these costs, but it doesn’t seem like that is enough.

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Everyone knows that print newspapers are our generation’s horse-and-buggy; in the most wired cities, they’ve been pummeled by competition from the Web. But it might surprise you to learn that one of the largest and most-celebrated new-media ventures is burning through cash at a rate that makes newspapers look like wise investments. It’s called YouTube: According a recent report by analysts at the financial-services company Credit Suisse, Google will lose $470 million on the video-sharing site this year alone. To put it another way, the Boston Globe, which is on track to lose $85 million in 2009, is five times more profitable—or, rather, less unprofitable—than YouTube. All so you can watch this helium-voiced oddball whenever you want.

YouTube’s troubles are surprisingly similar to those faced by newspapers. Just like your local daily, the company is struggling to sell enough in advertising to cover the enormous costs of storing and distributing its content. Newspapers have to pay to publish and deliver dead trees; YouTube has to pay for a gargantuan Internet connection to send videos to your computer and the millions of others who are demanding the most recent Dramatic Chipmunk mash-up. Google doesn’t break out YouTube’s profits and losses on its earnings statements, and of course it’s possible that Credit Suisse’s estimates are off. But if the analysts are at all close, YouTube, which Google bought in 2006, is in big trouble.

There’s a simple reason for this: Advertisers don’t like paying very much to support homemade photos and videos. As a result, the economics of user-generated sites are even more crushing than those of the newspaper business. At least newspapers see a proportional relationship between circulation and revenues—when the paper publishes great stories, it attracts more readers, and, in time, more advertisers. At YouTube, the relationship can be backward: The videos that get the most clicks—and are thus most expensive for YouTube to carry—trend toward the sort of lewd or random flavor that doesn’t sit well with advertisers. 

…YouTube sells ads on fewer than 10 percent of its videos. Credit Suisse estimates that 375 million people around the world will play about 75 billion YouTube videos this year. To serve up all these streams, the company has to pay for a broadband connection capable of hurtling data at the equivalent of 30 million megabits-per-second—about 6 million times as fast as your home Internet connection. All this bandwidth costs Google $360 million a year, the analysts estimate. Then there’s the cost of the videos themselves: Even though many of the site’s most popular content is uploaded for free from users, Credit Suisse says YouTube spends about $250 million a year to acquire licenses to broadcast professionally produced videos. Add in all other expenses, and the cost of running YouTube for one year exceeds $700 million. But the company makes only a fraction of that back in advertising—about $240 million in revenues for 2009, according to the report.

YouTube isn’t alone in Poor House 2.0. Yahoo bought the popular photo-sharing site Flickr in 2005, and though the service might be marginally profitable, it certainly hasn’t added appreciably to Yahoo’s bottom line. (Yahoo similarly doesn’t break out Flickr’s financials.) Facebook provides an even better example. The social network is running up a huge tab to store and serve up all the photos, videos, and other junk you stuff into your profile. Last year, TechCrunch reported that Facebook spends $1 million a month on electricity, $500,000 a month on bandwidth, and up to $2 million per week on new servers to keep up with its users’ insatiable photo-uploading needs. (Members post nearly a billion photos every month.) But Facebook gets relatively little in return for storing all your memories. Ad rates on its network are terribly low, the company doesn’t make a profit, and it hasn’t shed any light on how it will make good on investments that valued the company at $15 billion.

For all the frenzy surrounding citizen-produced media, the content that seems to do best online is the same stuff that did well offline—content produced by professionals. My colleague Jack Shafer recently listed the many services that people are willing to pay for online. They include music from iTunes, game videos from MLB.TV, reviews from Consumer Reports, and articles from the Wall Street Journal—and nothing made on some dude’s cell phone. Or look at Hulu, the video site that shows TV shows and movies. It attracts far less traffic than YouTube does (and thus pays far less for bandwidth). But because advertisers are willing to pay much more to be featured on its videos, Hulu is on track to match YouTube’s revenues and with much lower overhead.

YouTube has been trying to catch up to Hulu in the non-user-generated video business. It has signed content-licensing deals with several Hollywood studios and recording companies in the hopes that it can attract an audience—and advertisers—for the kind of quality programming we now run to Hulu for. But as Benjamin Wayne points out, those deals won’t solve YouTube’s fundamental problem; even if it does begin to make respectable profits from, say, showing old feature films, it’ll still have to keep paying huge infrastructure costs to host the world’s home videos. It’s possible that over the next few years, Google’s engineers could find a way to reduce dramatically the costs of hosting such a service. (They’re capable of amazing things.) But that proposition is iffy. As Wayne argues, there’s a very real possibility that YouTube as we know it is doomed. The company may have to institute restrictions to keep its bandwidth in check, or it could unveil any number of pay-per-use schemes (as some other video sites have done). Then the video free-for-all that we’ve grown to love will come to an end.

That would be unfortunate. Time wasn’t wrong: YouTube and its fellow user-contributed sites really did change the world. Too bad nobody could find a way to pay for it.

Edit by NRV
Full article
:http://www.slate.com/id/2216162/pagenum/all/#p2

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"If Japanese automakers can make a profitable hybid, why can't American automakers?"

May 1, 2009

That’s the question that President Obama posed in his 100 day press conference.

The answer: According to the Washington Post, they (the Japanese) can’t make a profitable hybrid — even the Prius loses money!  So, add on a few UAW work rules and legacy costs and you get a mega loss generator … probably supported by extensive government subsidies.

P.S. to President Obama — we didn’t invent the auto — the Germans did (ever hear of Mercedes Benz ?)

P.P.S. to Pres. Obama — hire a fact-checker

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Excerpted from Washington Post, “The Car of the Future — but at What Cost?”, Steven Mufson, November 25, 2008

Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them Profitable Is a Challenge

Sen. Charles E. Schumer said last week. “We need a business model based on cars of the future, and we already know what that future is: the plug-in hybrid electric car. ”But the car company Schumer and other lawmakers envision for the future could turn out to be a money-losing operation, not part of a “sustainable U.S. auto industry.”

That’s because car manufacturers still haven’t figured out how to produce hybrid and plug-in vehicles cheaply enough to make money on them.

After a decade of relative success with its hybrid Prius, Toyota has sold about a million of the cars and is still widely believed by analysts to be losing money on each one sold.

U.S. lawmakers want the companies to produce automobiles of the future, using advanced technologies and featuring hybrid or plug-in vehicles. But there’s no guarantee that the new business model would be any more viable than the current one.

Automobile experts estimate that the battery in a plug-in vehicle could add at least $8,000 to the cost of a car, maybe considerably more. Most Americans will be unwilling to pay the extra price, especially if gasoline prices languish around $2 a gallon.

GM will have to stake its future on Malibus, the Chevy Cruze, and much more conventional technologies.

“Do you bet on lighter, smaller, more fuel efficient but ultimately less profitable cars or do you hold back a little on technology development and look at new versions of existing cars.

”Many experts say that gas guzzlers will not fade away as long as Congress fails to impose higher taxes on gasoline to steer people toward fuel-efficient cars.

GM and other car companies, while preparing plug-in vehicles, are more likely to live or die based on the sales of conventional cars that get better fuel efficiency through improved transmissions, reduced weight or hybrid technology.

”There’s fluff and there’s reality … The fluff is the Chevy Volt . . . That’s not going to save GM in the next five years. What will save GM is more small sedans and more crossovers. That’s what people are going to be buying.”

Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/24/AR2008112403211.html?wpisrc=newsletter

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One for the good guys who pay their mortgages … Senate blocks mortgage "cramdowns"

May 1, 2009

As loyal readers know, I’ve been opposed to mortgage cramdowns from the get-go. 

In essence, cramdowns reduce the principal owed on a mortgage based on a borrower’s ability to pay.  That is, if a guy took on a mortgage that he couldn’t afford and stops paying, then the lender would have to reduce the amount owed to fit the deadbeat’s budget.  A fundamentally wacky idea for lots or reasons.  Most notably, if lenders had to absorb principal risk on all mortgages, they would naturally just up the interest rates on all mortgages in order to cover the added risk.  In other words, good borrowers would end up subsidizing the deadbeats.

Team Obama was pushing aggressively for cramdowns — to slow foreclosures and spread the wealth (by having good borrowers subsidize bad borrowers).

According to the WSJ:

“Senate Republicans defeated the budget bankruptcy “cramdown” bill …that had easily passed the House and was one of President Obama’s housing priorities.

The cramdown would have allowed bankruptcy judges to rewrite contracts to reduce the amount that people owe on their mortgages. But a bipartisan majority understood that relief for today’s troubled borrowers would be paid with higher rates on the next generation of homeowners, as lenders priced the added risk into mortgage contracts.

Speaking for millions of renters and nondelinquent borrowers, Mr. McConnell said that the vote “ensures that homeowners who pay their bills and follow the rules won’t see an interest-rate hike at the whim of a bankruptcy judge.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124113493922575179.html

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iTunes Price Strategy Shifts … Oh no, please don’t make me pay for the (bleep) tracks on the album.

May 1, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Music Labels Push Extras with iTunes Pass” By Ethan Smith, Apr 15, 2009

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Record companies, weary of scraping by on 99-cent song downloads and dwindling CD sales, are trying to dress up and reimagine their most profitable product — the album — to woo music fans on Apple Inc.’s iTunes Store.

On Tuesday, Sony Corp.’s Epic Records plans to release a $17 iTunes “pass” for pop band the Fray. The pass delivers songs, video footage and photos, but spaces out the offering over several weeks in the hope of holding consumers’ attention and justifying the premium price …

Apple plans several more subscription-style passes in the coming weeks.The offer is part of a broader strategy among record labels as they try to adapt to a retail landscape now dominated by the iTunes Store, which has become the world’s largest music retailer.

While iTunes has thrown the music industry a lifeline by getting listeners to pay for a product that many had been getting free via illegal file-sharing, it also has created a new set of problems for record labels. The vast majority of iTunes sales are for single-song downloads, while higher-priced album sales have dwindled. Record companies are desperate to find ways, including re-pricing songs, to hook consumers on bigger-ticket products that deliver higher margins.

The release of the Fray’s iTunes pass comes the same day that song prices on the iTunes Store are set for an overhaul. Instead of the longstanding across-the-board price of 99 cents, songs will be priced on a three-tiered system, with new releases or hits costing $1.29, and older tunes at 69 cents. Those occupying the middle ground will still cost 99 cents.

The four major-label groups have been calling for such a shift so they can make more money on their most sought-after releases. But even so, many in the recorded-music industry view consumers’ gravitation to song-by-song downloads as a major economic problem. Among other things, major labels can’t sustain their global marketing and physical distribution infrastructures with transactions that net them pennies apiece …

Though CD sales still account for around 80% of retail music sales in the U.S., they have fallen 20.3% this year alone … Adding in digitally downloaded albums, sales are down 13.5%, compounding a 45% decline in album sales since 2000 …

One downside to the pass idea: It’s something of a grab bag. Fans don’t know exactly what they’ll get. Still, the price isn’t that much more than the cost of many full albums …

Apple has begun offering fans other incentives to trade up from individual songs to full albums. A feature introduced in 2007 called “complete my album” allows a buyer to apply money spent on individual songs toward the cost of the full album it came from …

Eddy Cue, the Apple VP who oversees iTunes, says that “once [an album] gets out the door, you can’t update it, you can’t refresh it, you can’t do anything to it.” But the add-ons allow music companies to keep it new for a longer period.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123906011712694965.html

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Nintendo Striking Back at iTunes … It’s No Game !

May 1, 2009

Excerpted from Washington Post, “Nintendo, Biting Back at iTunes”, by Mike Musgrove, April 5, 2009

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Open up the latest portable game gadget from Nintendo, the DSi, and you’ll be able to log onto a new online store carrying a small catalogue of software titles. If you see one that grabs your interest, you can buy and download it to your device on the spot, with prices starting at $2.

This type of purchase probably doesn’t seem exotic any more, thanks largely to Apple. Apple’s App Store, which offers software for its iPhone and iPod Touch, has had 800 million downloads since it opened last summer. Now, other mobile gadgets like Nintendo’s DSi are quickly creating their own retail outlets on the Web.

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Some see Apple’s online software store as having hit close to home for Nintendo, which has long dominated the mobile gaming market. The most popular category in Apple’s software store, after all, is entertainment-related software.

DSiWare is “basically a direct response to iTunes . . . Apple definitely came up and bit these guys on the rear end, and this is Nintendo striking back.”

In terms of downloadable content, Apple’s store offers almost 7,000 games. Nintendo’s DSi store launches today with five titles, not including a free Web browser that DSi users can download to their device.

Nintendo says the company has adopted a different strategy than the competition. Just about anybody who pays a fee and passes an inspection by Apple reviewers can sell his software on the iTunes store, but that’s not how Nintendo has approached this market. The roster of titles Nintendo approves for sale on the DSi store will be “more like the content you’ll find at a film festival”, as opposed to its competitors’ catalogues, which are “more akin to YouTube.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/04/AR2009040400098_pf.html 

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