Archive for August 13th, 2010

But people still like him …

August 13, 2010

Thur morning on CNBC, John Harwood – one of NBC’s political hacks – reported on the most recent WSJ/NBC survey.

He rote-repeated the regular lib refrain: yes, the President’s approval ratings have fallen because people don’t like his policies … but people still like him as a person.

Oh, really ?

The WSJ/NBC survey asked people to “rate your feelings towards President Obama as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very
negative
.”

The WSJ/NBC data does say that 46% have “net positive” feelings towards Obama … 41% have “net negative” feelings towards him. 

So, he has a plurality but not a majority.

  • Technical Note: “Net Positive” adds together “Very Positive” and “Somewhat Positive”; “Net Negative” adds together “Very Negative” and “Somewhat Negative”;

In February 2009, Obama’s net positive was 68%; his net negative was 19%.

In other words – from February 2009 to August 2010 – Obama’s net positives dropped by 22 points and his net negatives increased by 22 points.

More significant, Obama’s top & bottom box ratings have converged.

In February 2009, 47% felt “very positive” towards him … only 19% felt “very negative”.

Now, 27% feel “very positive” towards him (a drop of 20 points) … and 27% feel “very negative” (up 8 points). 

Looks to me like folks aren’t liking him as much as they used to …

image

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/___Politics_Today_Stories_Teases/Aug%20NBC-WSJ%20Filled-in%20_for%208-11-10%20release_.pdf

How much does a ‘for sale’ home’s list price matter?

August 13, 2010

Answer: a lot … it’s the psychological effect called anchoring.

For example, researchers asked both professional real estate agents and man-off-the-street amateurs to predict the final selling price of a house.

They were all told that the current tax appraisal value of the house was $135,000.

Then, each respondent was told that the house was listed in one of four prices — ranging from $119,900 to $149,900.

The researchers found a clear positive correlation between list prices and predicted sale prices.

The amateur is responded more to the differences in list prices and the professionals — but even the pros and a $15,000 spread that can only be attributed to the differences in the list prices.

Bottom line: if you’re selling a home beach for the sky with your list price; if you’re buying a home try to ignore the list price and focus on more fundamental values like tax assessments and comparable sales

image

Source: Priceless, William Poundstone, Hill and Wang Books, 2010

How much does a ‘for sale’ home’s list price matter?

August 13, 2010

Answer: a lot … it’s the psychological effect called anchoring.

For example, researchers asked both professional real estate agents and man-off-the-street amateurs to predict the final selling price of a house.

They were all told that the current tax appraisal value of the house was $135,000.

Then, each respondent was told that the house was listed in one of four prices — ranging from $119,900 to $149,900.

The researchers found a clear positive correlation between list prices and predicted sale prices.

The amateur is responded more to the differences in list prices and the professionals — but even the pros and a $15,000 spread that can only be attributed to the differences in the list prices.

Bottom line: if you’re selling a home beach for the sky with your list price; if you’re buying a home try to ignore the list price and focus on more fundamental values like tax assessments and comparable sales

image

Source: Priceless, William Poundstone, Hill and Wang Books, 2010