Archive for May, 2011

Crime is falling, but NFL lockout may reverse trend … huh?

May 31, 2011

Two somewhat related articles caught my eye:

The first — Crime is falling, still – reports that the number of violent crimes in the United States dropped significantly last year, to .. the lowest rate in nearly 40 years

In all regions, the country appears to be safer. The odds of being murdered or robbed are now less than half of what they were in the early 1990s, when violent crime peaked in the United States.

The trend is a bit  puzzling since it runs counter to the prevailing expectation that crime would increase during a recession.

That’s good news.

The bad news:

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis said that one of the consequences of an owners’ lockout and a lost NFL season will be an increase in crime,

Lewis says:

“Do this research if we don’t have a season — watch how much evil, which we call crime, watch how much crime picks up, if you take away our game. “

“There’s too many people that live through us, people live through us,” he said. “Yeah, walk in the streets, the way I walk the streets, and I’m not talking about the people you see all the time.”

When asked why he thought crime would increase if the NFL doesn’t play games this year, Lewis said: “There’s nothing else to do on Sundays”.

If anybody knows crime, it should be Ray Lewis …

* * * * *

P.S.  In a family chat on the topic, the overwelming sntiment was that Ray Lewis is right … crime will rise is the NFL doesn’t play.

Aren’t there any recreational options between watching football and mugging somebody?

 

Imagine the c

What’s the “magic number” that makes you wealthy?

May 27, 2011

Several years ago I asked a colleague “What do you need to retire?”

His answer: “$5 million and playmates.”

Playmates?

What he meant was having enough leisure-time folks to hang out with during the day.

Related to his “magic number” … the WSJ asked some millionaires the question: “At what magic number did you consider yourself wealthy?”

  • 25% of the respondents said it was $1 million to $2 million saved
  • Another 25% said it said it was $2 to $4 million.
  • 15% said they needed $5 million to $10 million.
  • 4% (probably all New Yorkers) said they needed more than $10 million.

Are we there yet?

* * * * *

The Point:

Unlike the President, the millionaires don’t confuse “stocks & flows” … they calibrate their “wealth” by savings (a balance sheet item) not by income (obviously, an income statement item).

Also note some simple arithmetic: if a guy makes $250,000 annually and saves / invests 10% each year … and makes 10% after tax on his investments … it’s takes almost 20 years to reach the million-dollar wealth threshold.

Would somebody please mention that to the President?

What the hell happens on campus?

May 26, 2011

That’s the question that authors Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa ask and answer in their book Academically Adrift.

They report:

  • Forty-five percent of students barely tick upward in critical thinking, complex reasoning, and writing after two years of college, and 36 percent don’t budge in those skills after four years.
  • Four-year institutions only graduate about a third of their students in four years, and two-thirds of them in six.
  • Student debt just surpassed the country’s credit-card debt for the first time. It is projected to top $1 trillion this year … For the class of 2011, the mean student-debt burden is nearly $23,000, up 8 percent from a year ago.
  • In the early 1960s, college students spent 40 hours per week on academic work; now they spend only 27 hours per week. In 1961, 67 percent of students said they studied more than 20 hours per week; now only one in five study that much.
  • Miraculously, grades haven’t dropped, despite less study …   students have mastered “the art of college management,” whereby they succeed at “controlling college by shaping schedules, taming professors and limiting workload.”
  • Faculty spend approximately 11 hours per week on advisement and instructional preparation and delivery.” The rest is devoted to research and sundry other professional and administrative tasks.
  • Campus hiring has been devoted to “managerial professionals” specializing in sundry student services. What kind of learning environment is it, after all, without a director of sustainability initiatives?

If increasingly students don’t study, teachers don’t teach, and college employees aren’t primarily concerned with either, it raises the question of what the hell happens on campus.

Well, many students have a grand time during a years-long vacation from real life.

They enjoy state-of-the-art facilities, socialize, and figure how to come away with the credential of a degree in exchange for minimal effort.

Not exactly a formula for efficiency or success.

Source: RCP

Study: Republican profs reward high achievement … here’s the bad news.

May 25, 2011

Yesterday, HomaFIles summarized a study done by economists Talia Bar (Cornell) and Asaf Zussman (Hebrew University) that concluded in the words of economist Mark Perry“ …  highly motivated, high-achieving students should prefer classes from Republican professors because it’s more likely they’ll be rewarded with a really high grade.

That’s good news for highly motivated, high achieving students — all they need to do is take classes from Republican profs.

Here’s the bad news: the aren’t many Republican profs around.

From the same  study done by  Bar and Zussman:

  • There are virtually no Republican profs in the “softer” (i.e. more qualitative) disciplines such as the  humanities and social studies
  • Even in “harder” (i.e. more scientific and quantitative) disciplines such as the natural sciences, less than 1 in 5 profs are Republicans.

Ken’s Bet:  Republican profs’ representation in business schools isn’t much higher that it is the natural sciences … go figure.

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Ronald sighs relief as spotlight shifts to Girl Scout cookies …

May 25, 2011

Punch line: Orangutans and Thin Mints don’t mix

* * * * *

Girl Scouts have been selling cookies since 1917.

Last year, troops sold 198 million boxes of cookies. 

That’s  $714 million worth of cookies, most of which goes to the nonprofit councils under which troops are organized.

But now the “franchise” is under pressure.

Scouts and leaders have criticized their nonprofit organization … and some do not want to sell cookies next year.

Why?

Until 2006, the cookies contained partially hydrogenated vegetable oil, but the scouts switched to palm oil so the cookies would be free of trans fat.

Today, all 16 varieties of GS cookies contain palm oil.

Some rain forests have been cleared for palm oil plantations.

Some endangered orangutans live in rain forests.

There’s the rub.

The Girl Scouts organization says its bakers have told them there isn’t a good alternative to palm oil that would ensure the same taste, texture and shelf life.

The choice: save orangutans or save Thin Mints, Trefoils and Samoas?

Source: WSJ

Study: Republican profs reward high achievement more than their Democrat colleagues…

May 24, 2011

Economists Talia Bar (Cornell) and Asaf Zussman (Hebrew University) studied grading tendencies of Republican and Democratic college professors..

Their results are reported in a  forthcoming American Economic Journal article titled “Partisan Grading“.

The highlights:

The evidence suggests that student grades are linked to the political orientation of professors: relative to their Democratic colleagues, Republican professors are associated with a less egalitarian distribution of grades.

That is, the variance of grades is higher in courses taught by Republicans than in courses taught by Democrats. Moreover, in additional analysis we find that relative to their Democratic colleagues, Republican professors tend to assign more very low and very high grades

The differences are highly statistically significant.

The observed pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that Republican professors are associated with … higher returns to student ability.

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The results suggest that the allocation of grades is associated with the worldview or ideology of professors.

* * * * *

Economist Mark Perry observesOne conclusion here might be that highly motivated, high-achieving students should prefer classes from Republican professors because it’s more likely they’ll be rewarded with a really high grade

… and less motivated, lower-achieving students should prefer classes from Democratic professors, because it’s less likely that they’ll receive a really low grade.

What happens if we crash into the debt ceiling?

May 24, 2011

Economist Alan Blinder’s WSJ op-ed put the debt ceiling issue into perspective:

Consider inflows and outflows of cash to and from the Treasury … at average fiscal 2011 rates, receipts cover only about 60% of expenditures.

So if we hit the borrowing wall traveling at full speed, the U.S. government’s total outlays — a complex amalgam that includes everything from Social Security benefits to soldiers’ pay to interest on the national debt — will have to drop by about 40% immediately.

A 40% shortfall translates to over $4 billion a day, including Saturdays and Sundays.

For openers, suppose the federal government actually does reduce its expenditures by 40% overnight.

That translates to roughly $1.5 trillion at annual rates, or about 10% of GDP.

That’s an enormous fiscal contraction for any economy to withstand, never mind one in a sluggish recovery with 9% unemployment.

Of course, Blinder insinuates that the risk is too great.

My view: gotta face the issue some day, why not now?

Acts of incivility …

May 23, 2011

Last week the President caused quite a stir with his Mideast speech.

The specific topic aside, I was struck by his lack of basic courtesy to the Israeli Prime Minister..

Obama often scolds Congress and right-leaning activists to start acting more like adults … more civil.

That’s the same Obama who …

  • In an unprecedented act, called out the Supreme Court justices during a State of the Union address,
  • During the televised  “Healthcare Summit”, called the Senators and Congressmen by their first names,  They  honorably called him  “Mr. President” in return (not  Barack or Barry).
  • Invited Rep. Paul Ryan to sit in the front row for his deficit speech, and then rhetorically attacked him.

So, it is shouldn’t be surprising that the President would disrespect a foreign leader by blindsiding him with an inflammatory speech – the day before a state visit.

Sure-shot prediction: We’ll all be getting a scolding from the President this week re: acting more like grown-ups and adopting a more civil tone.

When he does, go ahead and scream.

HomaFiles goes ‘human interest’ … Part 2

May 23, 2011

This was the second of 2 VERY funny virals posted last Friday on the HomaFiles … some folks didn’t scroll down below the “Dog Tease” and missed it, so here it is again   .. be sure that audio is turned on.

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http://sorisomail.com/email/74298/como-se-danca-o-merengue.html

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Reprise: Dog Tease

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGeKSiCQkPw

HomaFiles goes ‘human interest’ …

May 20, 2011

These two virals are VERY funny .. be sure that audio is turned on.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGeKSiCQkPw

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http://sorisomail.com/email/74298/como-se-danca-o-merengue.html

Whew! Ronald dodges the bullet …

May 20, 2011

Punch line:  McDonald’s is standing by its clown … still another job ‘saved’ or created. But now, image consultants are dissing him.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: No Pink Slip for Ronald McDonald, May 20, 2011

The 48-year-old, red-haired mascot has come under fire from health-care professionals and consumer groups who, in recent days, have asked the fast-food chain to retire Ronald McDonald.

But McDonald’s CEO says, “Ronald McDonald is going nowhere.”

“Ronald McDonald is an ambassador for McDonald’s, and he is an ambassador for good.”

There’s no doubt that Ronald McDonald is well known. He ranks fourth in consumer awareness out of 2,800 celebrities.

“Ronald is recognized by more than 99% of U.S. consumers. Of course, just because consumers know someone doesn’t mean they like them or trust them.”

* * * * *

Some image consultants are beginning to question how relevant Ronald McDonald even is to kids anymore — and whether he has kept pace with McDonald’s own reinvention.

McDonald’s has modernized its image in recent years by remodeling restaurants … by selling frappes and fruit smoothies and by offering free wi-fi to customers.

Mascots were heavily used in the mid part of the last century, but not so much anymore unless you’re an insurance company and you have a duck or a gecko or a caveman,”

“I’m not so sure Ronald is keeping up with where the brand is going. I question whether he’s still meaningful or a throwback to the last century.”

Another Obama economist bites the dust …

May 19, 2011

Well, to be technically correct, Jared Bernstein was Biden’s chief economist and one of the crafters of the administration’s  Trillion Dollar-Stimulus plan.  He fronted for the 3 million jobs saved or created.

Adios, Jared.

Just announced: “Jared Bernstein, the former top economic adviser to Vice President Biden, joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities on Monday, May 16, as a Senior Fellow”.

Sommers, gone.

Romer, gone

Bernstein, gone.

Obama says: His economic program saved us from catastrophe. and is working just fine, thank you.

Yeah, right.

Oil CEOs sigh relief … spotlight shifts to Ronald McDonald

May 19, 2011

Headline in the WSJ:  McDonald’s Under Pressure to Fire Ronald

More than 550 health professionals and organizations have signed a letter to McDonald’s. asking the maker of Happy Meals to stop marketing junk food to kids and fire Ronald McDonald.

The campaign is organized by the nonprofit watchdog group Corporate Accountability International, which has also targeted tobacco companies and beverage makers like Coca-Cola  and PepsiCo  for the environmental impact of plastic bottles.

The letter from the health providers urges McDonald’s to cease marketing food high in salt, fat, sugar and calories to kids, from the use of Ronald McDonald to Happy Meal toys.

Some of the comments to the WSJ article:

  • Unemployment among clowns will increase by one
  • Toucan Sam & Captain Crunch better watch their backs
  • Col. Sanders is probably rolling over in his grave. 
  • Wonder if there would be such a ruckus if the clown possessed union representation ?
  • Clowns are increasingly creepy
  • I urge more health care professionals to shut the h#ll up and wash their hands more!
  • The “Eat Healthy” Obama White House Super Bowl Party menu: Bratwurst, Kielbasa, Cheeseburgers, Deep Dish Pizza, Buffalo Wings, Twice Baked Potatoes, Potato Chips, Ice Cream
  • Michael Moore will make a movie “How to eat healthy foods” and will earn another $ 100.000.000 slamming the greedy capitalists.

Add your comments … best one wins a free Happy Meal.

Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead.

New study says Obama Stimulus destroyed private sector jobs … ouch!

May 18, 2011

Two economists — Timothy Conley (Western Ontario University) and Bill Dupor (Ohio State University) – just completed a rigorous analysis of Obama’s Trillion-Dollar-Stimulus programs.

Their conclusions:

  • “We found, surprisingly, either negligible or negative effects of the Act on total employment. 
  • Specifically, we estimate the Act created/saved 450 thousand government-sector jobs and destroyed/forestalled one million private sector jobs.
  • State and local government jobs were saved because ARRA funds were largely used to offset state revenue shortfalls and Medicaid increases rather than boost private sector employment.
  • The majority of destroyed/forestalled jobs were in growth industries including health, education, professional and business services.”

Seems a bit at odds with Obama’s 3 million jobs saved or created.

Hmmm.

* * * * *

Source: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Public Sector Jobs Saved, Private Sector Jobs Forestalled

JOLTS: Each year about 1/3 of of the US workforce “churns” …

May 17, 2011

Punch line: The jobs numbers (job growth and unemployment rate) that create so much anticipation from the business press  …. do not give a clear picture of the labor market’s health.

A better understanding requires an examination of hires and separations, or what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Why the Job Market Feels So Dismal, May 16, 2011

At any point in the business cycle, even during a recession, American firms still hire a huge number of workers.

That’s because most of the action in the labor market reflects “churn,” the continual process of replacing workers, not net expansion or contraction of employment.

The lowest number hired in any month of the current recession was 3.6 million workers. Even during the dismal year of 2009 there were more than 45 million hires.

Bear in mind that the U.S. labor force has more than 150 million workers or job seekers.

In a typical year, about one-third or more of the work force turns over, leaving their old jobs to take new ones.

When the labor market creates 200,000 jobs, it is because five million are hired and 4.8 million are separated, not because there were 200,000 hires and no job losses.

When we’re talking about numbers as large as five million, the net of 200,000 is small and may reflect minor, month-to-month variations in the number of hires or separations.

* * * * *

Total Non-Farm Hires

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Obama says “Drill, baby, drill” … wanna bet?

May 16, 2011

Big week in oil …

On Tuesday, the  U.S. Interior Department issued a permit for Exxon Mobil to drill in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  That’s only the fourth deepwater permit issued since the BP oil spill.

On Thursday, the CEO’s were guests at a kangaroo court conducted by some press-preening Senators who seemed to think that raising taxes on oil companies would cut the price of gasoline at the pump. Apparently Econ 101 isn’t a prerequisite for the Senatorial junket.

Then, the best of the week came in Obama’s radio address when he reiterated his long-standing support for domestic oil drilling.

Say what?

To be more specific, the president, in his address, said he supported increased domestic oil and gas development, if done safely and responsibly.

English translation: not while he and rapster Common are hangin’ at the White House.

He further clarified his position: “(Let me be clear) … Under the plan, the coastline from New Jersey northward would remain closed to all oil and gas activity. So would the Pacific Coast, from Mexico to the Canadian border.  Further, The environmentally sensitive Bristol Bay in southwestern Alaska would be protected and no drilling would be allowed under the plan.“

As Mavis Johnson* would say: “Anything between the radio and the bicentennial mugs … not including the erasers or the Chiclets … everything in the 3” area right here.”

My bet: no noticeable change in the rate of deepwater licenses granted.

Even the mass media didn’t go for this head fake.  Coverage ranged from slim to none.

Which raises another question: why does the President give a Saturday morning radio address?

Does anybody ever listen to it?

* * * * *

*  Just in case you forgot, Mavis Johnson was Steve Martin’s character in “The Jerk”.

Highest Presidential IQ ever … since it’s obvious, no records required.

May 13, 2011

The sealed college transcripts flap got ratcheted up a level.

Historian Michael Beschloss claimed on Don Imus’ radio show that President Obama’s IQ is off the charts and that he is the smartest president we have ever had.

Hmmm.

Imus followed up with the logical question: “Well, what is his IQ?”

The answer: “Uh. I would say it’s probably – he’s probably the smartest guy ever to become President.”

Pretty convincing stuff, huh?

Just say it and it’s true.

For the record I don’t care what Obama’s IQ is.

But, if he’s going to dispatch his shills to hype it, he should feel comfortable showing some evidence.

Tell me again, why did Bush have to show his transcripts and why does Obama get a pass?

Section 199 – Domestic Production Activities Deduction … a loophole for big oil … huh?

May 12, 2011

An editorial by former Congressman Harold Ford aroused my curiosity …

The subject was President Obama’s opposition to domestic oil drilling.

The part that caught my eye had to do with the “tax loopholes” that Obama was repealed because oil company profits – and gas prices — are rising.

Ford says:

“Why, when gas prices are climbing, would any elected official call for new taxes on energy? And characterizing legitimate tax credits as “subsidies” or “loopholes” only distracts from substantive treatment of these issues.

Lawmakers misrepresent the facts when they call the manufacturing deduction known as Section 199—passed by Congress in 2004 to spur domestic job growth—a “subsidy” for oil and gas firms.

The truth is that all U.S. manufacturers, from software producers to filmmakers and coffee roasters, are eligible for this deduction.

WSJ, Washington vs. Energy Security, MAY 11, 2011

What’s the loophole”?

Sec. 199 is officially the Domestic Production Activities Deduction.

It says that a business engaged in a qualifying production activity is eligible to take a tax deduction of  9%.

What’s a qualifying production activity?

Qualified domestic production activities include: “the production of electricity, natural gas or potable water in the U.S. and the manufacture, production, growth or extraction of tangible personal property, computer software,, including the development of video games, or sound recordings or qualified films “

Hmmm.

Why isn’t the President talking about the tax loopholes for CDs, films and video games?

Take the tax advantage away from oil companies, but preserve it for video game makers.

You just can’t make this stuff up …

Highest level of domestic oil production in history … (just kidding)

May 11, 2011

The Campaigner-in-Chief has been at it again, claiming that (thanks to him) domestic oil production is at a historic high.

Au contraire, mon friere …

According to the Dept. of Energy, U.S. oil production is about half of what it was in the 1970’s.

Yes, there has been a turn upward in the past year or so, as wells approved by the Bush administration come on line.

Hmmm.

Is the President misinformed or misleading?

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News Flash: Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax … psst, I told you so (July 31, 2008)

May 10, 2011

Since the taxing and spending debate will be revving up again soon, it’s time to reprise a HomaFiles post that never gets old …

Punch line: “While some may applaud the fact that millions of low- and middle-income families pay no income taxes, there is a threat to the fabric of our democracy when so many Americans are not only disconnected from the costs of government but are net consumers of government benefits. The conditions are ripe for social conflict if these voters begin to demand more government benefits because they know others will bear the costs.”

* * * * *

Original Post

Last week, there was a flurry of news activity over a report that nearly half of all U.S. households will pay no federal income taxes for 2009.

It was treated as new news.  Geez.

Homa Files were all over this as far back as July 31, 2008.

For all the wonky facts & a complete analysis see:
Under Obama, Tax Payers Will be a Minority !

Note: This is the Homa Files post with all-time record for most hits.

I hate to be an “I told you so” (yeah, right) … but hears the AP report … almost 2 years later.

As President Obama likesto say “Elections have consequences”.

* * * * *

Excerpted from AP: Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax, April 9, 2010

The federal income tax is the government’s largest source of revenue, raising more than $900 billion — or a little less than half of all government receipts .

So, Tax Day is a dreaded deadline for millions, but for nearly half of U.S. households it’s simply somebody else’s problem.

About 47 percent will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009 … up from 38% in 2007.

Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions and exemptions to eliminate their liability.

In recent years, credits for low- and middle-income families have grown so much that a family of four making as much as $50,000 will owe no federal income tax.

Tax cuts enacted in the past decade have been generous to wealthy taxpayers making them a target for President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress.

Less noticed were tax cuts for low- and middle-income families, which were expanded when Obama signed the massive economic recovery package last year.

The result is a tax system that exempts almost half the country from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education. It is a system in which the top 10 percent of earners paid about 73 percent of the income taxes collected by the federal government.

The bottom 40 percent, on average, make a profit from the federal income tax … the government sends them a payment. Not just a refund of of excess withholding — so-called “refundable credits”.

“We have almost 50 percent of families who are getting something for nothing.”

Some of the blame goes to former President George Bush.  In 2008, he signed a law providing most families with rebate checks of $300 to $1,200.

Last year, Obama signed the economic recovery law that expanded some tax credits and created others.

Obama’s Making Work Pay credit provides as much as $800 to couples and $400 to individuals. The expanded child tax credit provides $1,000 for each child under 17. The Earned Income Tax Credit provides up to $5,657 to low-income families with at least three children.

There are also tax credits for college expenses, buying a new home and upgrading an existing home with energy-efficient doors, windows, furnaces and other appliances.

Many of the credits are refundable, meaning if the credits exceed the amount of income taxes owed, the taxpayer gets a payment from the government for the difference.

Obama has pushed tax cuts for low- and middle-income families and tax increases for the wealthy, arguing that wealthier taxpayers fared well in the past decade, so it’s time to pay up. The nation’s wealthiest taxpayers did get big tax breaks under Bush, with the top marginal tax rate reduced from 39.6 percent to 35 percent, and the second-highest rate reduced from 36 percent to 33 percent.

But income tax rates were lowered at every income level. The changes made it relatively easy for families of four making $50,000 to eliminate their income tax liability.

Here’s how they do it, according to Deloitte Tax:

The family was entitled to a standard deduction of $11,400 and four personal exemptions of $3,650 apiece, leaving a taxable income of $24,000. The federal income tax on $24,000 is $2,769.

With two children younger than 17, the family qualified for two $1,000 child tax credits. Its Making Work Pay credit was $800 because the parents were married filing jointly.

The $2,800 in credits exceeds the $2,769 in taxes, so the family makes a $31 profit from the federal income tax. That ought to take the sting out of April 15.

Full article:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nearly-half-of-US-households-apf-1105567323.html?x=0&.v=1

* * * * *

Why it matters

The Tax Foundation — a nonpartisan tax research group – has repeatedly warned that

“While some may applaud the fact that millions of low- and middle-income families pay no income taxes, there is a threat to the fabric of our democracy when so many Americans are not only disconnected from the costs of government but are net consumers of government benefits.

The conditions are ripe for social conflict if these voters begin to demand more government benefits because they know others will bear the costs.”

http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/1111.html

So far this year, the economy has added 768,000 jobs … here’s why.

May 9, 2011

The jobs report on Friday said that so far this year, the economy has added 768,000 jobs.

The administration shills (think Goolsbee) are proclaiming that recent job growth is proof-positive that  Obama’s economic policies are working.

They imply that the results are a delayed reaction to the trillion dollars of stimulus paybacks .

Gimme a break.

What the administration and the mainsteam media seem to have forgotten is that in December 2010, President Obama signed into law a 2-year extension of the George W. Bush tax plan and cutting payroll taxes by 2%.

Washington Post, Obama signs bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, December 17, 2010

President Obama signed into law the most significant tax bill in nearly a decade … to continue for two more years tax breaks enacted under president George W. Bush.

The $858 billion package prevents taxes from rising … for virtually every American household.

And it includes … a two-percentage-point reduction in the Social Security payroll tax that would let workers keep as much as $2,136.

Well, well, well.

Once businesses (and individuals) had at least 2 years of tax plan certainty … with relatively low tax rates for all … companies started adding jobs.

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Bush was so stupid … except for job-creating economic incentives and security-intelligence infrastructures.

Hmmm.

Keeping MBA Moms in the workplace …

May 9, 2011

Yesterday’s Washington Post front page article  “Movement to keep moms working is remaking the workplace featured MSB-MBA rockstar alum Jennifer Folsom — a partner with Momentum Resources – a staffing service for MBAs.

Punch line: New mothers with MBAs, abandon the workforce at levels higher than graduates of any other advanced-degree program.  One study found that 15 years after graduating, nearly 30 percent of mothers with MBAs had quit the workforce. That compares with only 4% of non-mother MBA females.

Many mothers are willing to give up income if that means taking control of their schedules, and, perhaps most important, doing meaningful, challenging work in their chosen professions rather than what they see as the less interesting work of the often-stigmatized “mommy track.”

So, there is  a movement to close that gap.

How?

By coaching companies to move to a more results-oriented workforce … and  to support mom-MBA friendly flexible scheduling and work-at-home venues.

As Jennifer says: “ Face time is so five years ago.”

Full article

In-Store Marketing Reaches In…To Your Home

May 6, 2011

TakeAway: As shoppers research their grocery lists online before going to the store, shopper marketing begins at home.   In-store marketing traditionally consisted of flashy product displays, special promotions at the end of the aisle and attention-grabbing packaging on the shelf. 

No longer. 

Given how inundated consumers are with information via multiple media, the right marketing mix is even more challenging.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ, “In-Store Sales Begin at Home By Ellen Byron, April 25, 2011

Determined to find the best deals, more shoppers are researching their grocery lists online before going to the store. For marketers, that means big changes in how and when they tempt consumers to buy.

It’s well known that consumers research expensive products like electronics online, but coming out of the recession, consumers are more scrupulous about researching their everyday products such as diapers and detergent, too. More than a fifth of them also research food and beverages, nearly a third research pet products and 39% research baby products, even though they ultimately tend to buy those products in stores, according to WSL Strategic Retail, a consulting firm.   That has led retailers and brands to target customers via blogs, social-media sites such as Facebook and Twitter and campaigns on retail sites, in addition to in-store campaigns.

A 2010 campaign for Procter & Gamble Co.’s new CoverGirl "Smoky Eye Look" makeup kit illustrates the more complex route marketers are taking.  To drum up hype for the product launch online, P&G, with Saatchi X, shipped the packs of mascara, eyeliner and eye shadow to makeup bloggers before they were available in stores. The "Makeup Master" kit also included application instructions, blogging tips, product photographs and a CoverGirl-emblazoned director’s chair.  Inside stores, CoverGirl drew attention to its kits with live product demonstrations, its co-branded print ads with Wal-Mart Stores and cardboard trays that carried the kits on the shelf while highlighting the product’s features.  After a purchase, shoppers were encouraged via Facebook and other online campaigns to write a review of the product, thus spreading the word to more customers researching makeup online.

The digital shift is a particular challenge for food and household-product companies, which typically aren’t as advanced online as their electronics and apparel counterparts. They have been deterred by the cost of shipping bulky but low-value items like paper towels, detergent and canned soup, especially given the ubiquity of brick-and-mortar stores selling the products for about the same price.

Wal-Mart is banking on the trend to accelerate. Lately, it has made its online circulars more user-friendly. It is also developing ways to offer more customizable circulars online, based on a shopper’s interests or needs.

To be sure, the shift hasn’t eliminated the need for effective campaigns inside stores. In-store marketing gained appeal and sophistication amid the fragmentation of television and print audiences, and accelerated during the recession, when marketers believed cash-strapped shoppers made even more purchasing decisions when looking at the store shelf.

Edit by AMW 

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“Don’t forget what I inherited when I took this job”

May 5, 2011

Those are the words that I want Obama to utter tonite at Ground Zero.

Channeling Bart Simpson, the President belabors his inheritance to explain away all things he does that don’t work.

Think tillion dollar stimulus package,

But, when legacy initiatives work out well, he likes to act like he created them out of whole cloth — from a standing start.

Think TARP — a program I disagreed with — that sure seems to have worked.

Think what you may about Bush & Cheney, but in the final analysis, they kept the homeland safe post-9/11 and put in place an effective intelligence infrastructure.

Would be nice if Obama explicitly said that at Ground Zero.

Except for maybe a vague parenthetical reference, I’m betting the under.

We’ll see …

Obama: “We don’t need to spike the ball” … then heads to Ground Zero to start victory lap … W. says “Count me out”

May 5, 2011

Couple of head scratchers:

President Obama caused a stir in the Muslim world by authorizing the release of pictures of alleged abuse by American soldiers.  But, he’s not releasing the UBL photos because they might cause a stir in the Muslim world.

Hmmm.

His rationale: “We don’t need to spike the football.”

Then he started packing his bags for his first trip as President to Ground Zero” … that is, starting his personal victory lap.

He invited President Bush to join him, but got a regrets card back.

Pundits say it’s because Bush now prefers staying out of the spotlight.

I have a further explanation …

Remember when Obama invited Rep. Paul Ryan to sit in the front row at his budget speech and then proceeded to excoriate Ryan in public.  Calling him names and accusing him of going after autistic children.

Bush probably realized that if he went to Ground Zero with Obama he (1) would  probably end up is some of Obama’s campaign videos and (2) would have to listen to Obama rake him over the coals for enhanced interrogations, Gitmo, etc.

Maybe W isn’t that dumb after all.

PS Late word: President Clinton also got an invite … and sent his regrets.

Social media and the dearth of analytic skills among business leaders …

May 5, 2011

TakeAway:  IBM thinks so.  That is why, IBM recently announced a new product, Cognos Consumer Insight, to analyze social media data to see how a firm and its products are fairing among consumers. 

IBM has also partnered with the Yale School of Management to address the gap of data analytical skills among business leaders …

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Excerpted from Gigaom, “IBM targets the future of social media analytics,” April 28, 2011

IBM announced a new product, Cognos Consumer Insight, to help customers perform sentiment analysis of social media data and a new program with the Yale School of Management’s Center for Customer Insight to train students in advanced data analysis skills.

With businesses increasingly using social media as a way of connecting with customers, and with an industry-wide need for analytics skills, both the product and project are well-timed …

According to Deepak Advani, IBM’s VP of predictive analytics, there’s a lot of value in performing text analytics on data derived from Twitter, Facebook and other social forums to determine how companies or their products are faring among consumers.

Cognos lets customers view sentiment levels over time to determine how efforts are working, and skilled analysts can augment their Cognos Consumer Insight usage with IBM’s SPSS product to bring predictive analytics into the mix.

The partnership with Yale is designed to address the current dearth of analytic skills among business leaders … Advani explained that within many organizations they’re not using analytics at the point of decision or across all their business processes. Advani says partnerships like those with Yale will help instill the thought process of using mathematical algorithms instead of gut feeling…

We’ve been talking about the need for advanced analytics capabilities for a while now — highlighted by the high demand for data scientists — but the need spans all levels of business users … U.S. Bureau of Labor has said analytics jobs will increase 24 percent over the next eight years.

Edit by KJM

How does Holder (and his boss) reconcile this one?

May 4, 2011

Again, I agree with the UBL action and outcome.  Period.

But, I’m eager to see how Obama and Holder finesse this one:

Just a couple of months ago, they were fighting to have KSM — #2 on the al-Quaeda org chart — properly lawyered up and given a civil trial in New York City.

But, this week, they were comfortable with violating a country’s sovereign rights and fatally shooting an unarmed (but resisting) UBL.

How the heck do these guys reconcile the positions?

I guess that they’ve concluded that  “rule of law” is situation-specific.

The good news: maybe they’ll quit lecturing  us on morality and the rule of law. 

Maybe.  But I’m betting the under.

#1 Mom? Moms not feeling the love on Mother’s Day…

May 4, 2011

TakeAway: As brands aim to offer new ways to please moms on Mother’s Day, many moms feel neglected, and even hate their presents. 

While Americans expect to spend more this year on Mother’s day, nearly $140,  some Moms would just prefer time off from housework and a homemade card … 

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Excerpted from MediaPost.com, “Brands reach out to moms, yet they feel dissed,” April 28, 2011

With Mother’s Day a few weeks off, marketers are doing their best to offer novel ways to remember her.

Lowe’s is targeting outdoor DIY projects as the ideal way to please her, offering plenty of mom-friendly ambience and lots of bright flowers. The retailer is even connecting it to a mom-friendly cause, selling Susan G. Komen Plant for the Cure plants.

Hallmark is getting some buzz for an extensive line of postage-paid greeting cards.

But … moms aren’t exactly feeling the love. A new survey from the Mom Complex reports that 30% of moms say they typically get honored for no more than 5 to 10 minutes on Mother’s Day. In fact, 40% feel their husband and children come first on Mother’s Day, and 12% feel they don’t even make the list.

Oh, and they hate their presents. What moms really want is time off from housework (57%) and a homemade gift or card. While 42% want that, only 28% got it last year …

… Americans will be spending more on mom this year — even if it’s not on the things she wants. The National Retail Federation reports that Americans are planning to spend $140.73 on gifts, up from $126.90 last year … Total spending is expected to reach $16.3 billion …

… The biggest change is in electronics with 13.3% planning to get mom an electronic gift, a 48% jump from last year. Jewelry is expected to be popular, with 31.2% percent of celebrants planning to buy mom silver, gold or diamonds — a 19% increase. …. it will likely be one of the biggest holidays of the year for restaurants, with 54.7% treating mom to dinner or brunch. About 65% will buy flowers.

Edit by KJM

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Q&A: Why didn’t UBL hear the helicopters ?

May 3, 2011

We live close to CIA headquarters in Langley, and  we often hear loud (make that VERY loud) gov’t copters over head. 

So, I wondered: why didn’t UBL hear the helicopters coming and tunnel his way out of the complex?

A military analyst on Fox broke the code.

First, the copters have a ‘low noise’ mode that dampens some of the sound.  Dampens the sound, but doesn’t silence it.

The real key was where UBL’s digs were situated.

Since the mansion was in the middle of 3 miltary complexes, it was common for copters to be flying in the area at all times of the day and night.

So, UBL probably assumed that they were friendly Paki copters — not US Navy copters.

Then, the landing and engagement were so quick that UBL didn’t have time to do anything but grab the women he used as shield.

In the words of the analyst: “UBL and the Pakis were too clever by half  by situating in the military area.  It gave the copters the cover they needed to breach the airspace undetected.”

Pretty interesting , huh?

5 tips to make mobile work for your brand

May 3, 2011

TakeAway: The rapid growth of mobile technology has forced marketers to think about ways to connect with consumers through a new channel: Mobile phones.

In order to make sure your mobile strategies are working make sure you know your customer and are able to give them what they want, when they want.

Don’t be afraid to move first and correct later. 

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Excerpted from AdAge, “Making Mobile Work for Your Brand: Five Expert Tips” by Manuela Zoninsein , April 6, 2011

Mobile technology has, …created deeper interactions between people and brands. It’s not always easy to get it right, but with mobile internet usage expected to outnumber desktop connections in the next few years, marketers can’t wait to craft mobile strategies. …

Here, five tips on how mobile can work for your brand:

1) Get data: “You can deepen relationships with data,” …

By gathering and reviewing data, the company can chart user activity by criteria such as time of day and category. For example, it’s been found that dinner-time and food-related updates are most common. Using this information, marketers “can start to predict behaviors” and “use data to figure out where people are and will be at different times…”

2) Know what your consumer wants

“Deliver better experiences based on what you know about a person or interaction,” … experimenting with curating purchasing experiences for customers based on history and preferences. … Once the customer “bumps,” identifying himself, the retailer becomes aware of key facts about him. Perhaps he is a vegetarian, and always likes to buy organic products. He can make an order from a menu of regular options and pay right away, without standing in line.

3) Gratify. Instantly: “The hardest challenge… is giving instant gratification, instant value, to the user.”

Social sharing enters real time; so if people traveling together want to share photos, or a new song, they can do so without connecting over another platform such as email or Skype.

4) Go global

Get rid of U.S.-based mentalities. … “Bump’s” fastest-growing user bases residing in Hong Kong and South Korea. Similarly,

Foursquare’s usage map was notably global, with a strong footprint not just in the developed world (U.S., Europe, Japan) but also in Southeast Asia, the Middle East (Israel, most prominently) and pockets of South America.

5) Move first

A lot of these lessons came by way of experimentation, but that’s not an excuse to sit back and watch the market perfect itself…. “getting customers a few years from now will be more difficult,” so there’s a real need “to be creative and more aggressive.”

Though the technology is not perfect, it works well enough and it’s important to learn as it evolves. … “What you think you know about your users is wrong, and you won’t know until they tell you. So why waste time?”

Edit by HH

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Obama gets the goal, Bush gets the assist, Seals get the win …

May 2, 2011

My take on the UBL situation

First, is there anybody who doesn’t have respect for the Navy Seals and job they did? I feel safer knowing that they and the rest of the U.S. military are on our side. They get a win on this one, for sure.

Second, even I have to hat-tip Obama on this one.  It was a gutsy decision to send the Seals in instead of just bombing the mansion.  Obvious reasons: no collateral damage and ability to positively identify the bastard.  More ‘subtle’: a bomb would have been instantaneous — there’s a certain “just dues” that UBL’s last couple minutes were frightful — and a  bullet between the eyes seems like the right punishments.

Third, imagine if Bush was a wuss and didn’t authorize waterboarding KSM … UBL would still be kicking back in his $ million pad.

Amazing.

Question: What do you imagine that Quadaffi is thinking today …. tick, tick, tick.

Quick question re: Obama’s taxes

May 2, 2011

President Obama was bummed that the space shuttle flight got delayed from last week.

A short blurb on the news said that he was carting Malia and Natsha along with him, so they were bummed, too.

Quite understandable.

But, it aroused my curiosity re: Obama’s tax return. So, I took a peek.

His listing for wages and other W-2 items was $395,188.

At first blush, that sounds about right since the Presidential salary is usually reported to be around  $400,000.

But …

From my biz days, I know that the IRS is finicky about “personal use of company aircraft” by execs who are traveling for personal reasons and for exec’s’ friends & family when they’re part of the posse.

Specifically, the IRS says: “Non-business use by an employee is generally considered a taxable fringe benefit. The value of the flight, or a portion thereof, must be included in the employee’s income. Whenever an employee’s guests (including family members of the employee) uses a company airplane, the flight is taxable to the employee.”

Hmmm.

In the biz world, the ‘imputed wages’ are usually the cost of a first class airline seat.

So, how come Obama doesn’t have his vacation trips with his family show up on his W-2?

Just wondering …  a loophole, perchance?

P.S. It really irks me when he drags along his mother-in-law.

Brands: Making ghosts powerful (again)

May 2, 2011

TakeAway: Kraft is on a mission to keep its myriad products from becoming ghost brands — once-prominent pantry staples that fade into obscurity through a lack of consumer interest brought on by a lack of advertising support. 

It is common during economic downturns for marketers to see if any brands they own can be renewed or revived because it can cost less to bring ghost brands back to life than develop new ones.

To forestall that fate for other brands, Kraft executives are initiating a project called Operation Spark, meant to help consumers reconnect with products that are not part of what Kraft calls its roster of “power brands,” which includes behemoths like Planters, Oreo, Ritz and Trident.

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Excerpted from the NYTimes, “Rescuing ‘Ghost’ Brands From Grocery Limbo By Stuart Elliott, April 12, 2011

This is also a propitious time for Kraft to assess its product lineup because consumers who are still watching their spending are eating at home more often, making them more receptive to pitches for packaged foods.

If ghost brands cannot be reclaimed, marketers usually have to give up the ghost, selling or discontinuing them to concentrate on larger, livelier holdings. For instance, Kraft stopped making its Postum grain beverage, which dated to 1895, and sold off products like Log Cabin syrups.

The brands the executives hope to keep from the ghostly ranks include the Athenos line of Greek-style dips, spreads and yogurt; dairy products that are sold in the East under the Breakstone’s name and in the West as Knudsen; and Stove Top stuffing. 

Those brands are getting new campaigns and other promotional support, including television commercials for Breakstone’s and Knudsen that began on Monday. The brands also all have new agencies. 

A central element of Operation Spark is to pair the smaller brands with creative agencies that have outstanding reputations for effective, rule-breaking advertising — and have not previously worked for Kraft.

Edit by AMW 

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