Archive for February 21st, 2012

Re: the unemployment rate … Gallup still hanging at 9% — up from 8.3%.

February 21, 2012

You may remember that the BLS reported a dramatic drop in the unemployment rate for January — down from 8.5% to 8.3%.

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At the time, we (and many other folks) pointed out that the apparent improvement was largely drive by people leaving the work force, by seasonal adjustments (which were more liberal than prior years), and by a revision in the way that the BLS compiles the numbers.

In other words, smelled like some book-cooking going on.

At the time, we encouraged loyal readers to start watching the Gallup daily tracking of the unemployment rate.  Historically, it has been a pretty good canary in the unemployment coal mine.

Typically, Gallup’s mid-month number is a good predictor of the BLS’s end-of-month number.

Well, the Gallup number has increased dramatically from mid-January to mid-February … from 8.3% (same as the BLS end of January number) … up to 9%, where it has bee hanging.

The number reported by the BLS for February will be very, very interesting …

Based on Gallup, the unemployment rate should surge back up.

Unless, of course, somebody cooks the books …

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Hitting consumers when they’re “vulnerable to intervention by marketers”…

February 21, 2012

Punch line: Many of consumers’  buying behaviors are habitual — deeply ingrained and difficult of to change.  Marketers have to identify times when consumers are open to change and get them. to break  their habits. 

The good news: the are times when consumers are, in fact, ripe for change …

In the 1980s, a team of researchers led by a U.C.L.A. professor named Alan Andreasen (now at MSB) undertook a study of peoples’ most mundane purchases, like soap, toothpaste, trash bags and toilet paper.

They learned that most shoppers paid almost no attention to how they bought these products, that the purchases occurred habitually, without any complex decision-making.

Which meant it was hard for marketers, despite their displays and coupons and product promotions, to persuade shoppers to change.

But when some customers were going through a major life event, like graduating from college or getting a new job or moving to a new town, their shopping habits became flexible in ways that were both predictable and potential gold mines for retailers.

The study found that:

  • When someone marries, he or she is more likely to start buying a new type of coffee.
  • When a couple move into a new house, they’re more apt to purchase a different kind of cereal.
  • When they divorce, there’s an increased chance they’ll start buying different brands of beer.

At those unique moments, Andreasen wrote, customers are “vulnerable to intervention by marketers.”

In other words, a precisely timed advertisement, sent to a recent divorcee or new homebuyer, can change someone’s shopping patterns for years.

Excerpted from NY Times, How Companies Learn Your Secrets, by Charles Duhigg

Note that Prof. Andreasen didn’t just pick off the obvious stuff — e.g. new parents buying baby stuff,  new home owners furnishing their new digs, or divorcees buying new duds.

No, the life-changers seem willing to change many of their buying patterns and brand loyalties.

Next: How Target identifies customers who are “vulnerable to intervention by marketers”  … and pounces on them.

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Posted in Mktg - Consumer Behavior | 1 Comment »

Hit the trademark button: Linsanity™

February 21, 2012

NY Knicks sensation Jeremy Lin is going on offense to protect “Linsanity”.

Last week, he applied for trademark rights to Linsanity.

One of Lin’s attorneys confirmed: “We’re prepared to protect his intellectual property rights,” said Pam Deese at the Washington, D.C., law firm of Arent Fox. She declined to comment further

Lin paid a filing fee of $1,625 to cover use of the trademarked term on all manner of apparel, including underwear.

Here’s the rub: One of Lin’s high school basketball coaches reportedly bought the domain name Linsanity.com in 2010 and has been selling Lin branded merchandise including T-shirts that have similar blue and orange coloring like that of the Knicks’ uniforms..

According to the Huffington Post:

“The NBA is pursuing enforcement — in the US, China and other countries — to address the sale of counterfeit ‘Lin’ jerseys and other unauthorized merchandise using NBA intellectual property. We also are coordinating with Jeremy Lin’s representatives regarding their efforts to enforce against the unauthorized use of his name and image.”

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