Archive for October 22nd, 2012

Interesting polling factoid …

October 22, 2012

RealClearPolitics included 7 polls in it’s poll=of-polls today … 4 have Romney leading, 2 have Obama leading, and 1 is a tie.

The 2 that have Obama leading are co-sponsored by conservative publications: Investor’s Business Daily and the Washington Times.

Go figure …

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Obama’s social media barrage …

October 22, 2012

According to AdAge

Obama is out slugging Romney in digital with 93% ‘Share of Voice’ in Online Ads.

The Barack Obama and Mitt Romney camps may be emptying their war chests this month to go head-to-head in TV spots in swing states, but the online battle is a more lopsided affair.

According to research by the analytics company Moat, the Obama campaign had a 93.3% share of voice in terms of display-impression volume in September across the top 20,000 publishers, compared with the Romney campaign’s 6.7%.

Obama had 497 creative executions deployed across the web compared with the Romney camp’s 90.

30% of the Obama ads have a Yahoo Genome tag, which “suggests use of audience and data targeting.”

The top five domains where President Obama’s ads were spotted in that period were NYTimes.com, RR.com, Oprah.com, Reference.com and Yahoo.com.

Romney’s top five were AOL.com, RR.com, Chow.com, GameSpot.com and Maxpreps.com.

The scale and sophistication of the Obama campaign’s digital ad operation should come as no surprise … the campaign opened a “tech field office” in San Francisco last winter that’s staffed largely by volunteers who work around their day jobs.

Romney’s digital director acknowledged that his side is being outspent on digital, but said that they’re trying to win by purchasing efficiently and working with third-party vendors to identify key buckets of voters in swing state.

“If [they] have money to burn … good for them … It’s a spray-and-pray model.”

““Obama had 27 million followers on his Facebook page, we had less than 5 million … But when the ruling came, we saw 27% engagement with our audience while they only got 1.5%.”

The post-mortem to this election will be interesting … both from a political perspective and re: target marketing and digital media.

Obama’s team is clearly at the forefront of using technology to pinpoint people, dope them out psychographically, and get to them through digital means … Romney’s team is pretty “old school”, largely relying on traditional research and methods.

Only complicator is that Obama is spending lots of $$$ on that old school stuff, too … so might be had to sort out which of his marketing techniques are delivering.

And, of course, the product and message matter, too …

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Update: What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

October 22, 2012

Back in January, Homa Files posted the answer to the question.

At the time, it looked like Ron Paul might make a run as a 3rd party candidate, potentially being a spoiler, depriving Obama or Romney of the necessary 270 electoral votes.

Well, Paul is out of the picture … but there’s increased chatter that Obama and Romney could end up tied in electoral votes.

So, what happens if neither presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

As we reported in January, according to the Electoral College web site …

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote.

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes, with each Senator casting one vote for Vice President.

Note that for President, each state gets one vote in the House … not each rep.  So a majority of each state’s reps determine the state’s vote.

And, yes, it’s possible that the tickets could be split.

For example, the GOP House-elect would certainly pick Mitt … and the Senate Dem majority could select Biden … and certainly would if the Senate-elect is split 50-50 between Dems and GOP.   For details, see our post Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President?

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Click here for a short video: What If the Presidential Election is a Tie?

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The perils of celebrity endorsements … sponsors tell Lance to peddle somebody else’s wares.

October 22, 2012

Punch line: Despite sticking by athletes during controversial times, Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods included, Nike has dropped Lance Armstrong from his contract as the doping allegations continue.

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Excerpted from the New York Times’, “Armstrong is Dropped by Nike as he Quits Role at His Charity”

A week after the United States Anti-Doping Agency made public its evidence in a doping case against Lance Armstrong, Armstrong on Wednesday stepped down as chairman of Livestrong, his cancer foundation, the organization that inspired millions fighting the disease.

The fallout from the antidoping agency’s report also prompted Nike, the company that stood by Armstrong through more than a decade’s worth of doping allegations, to terminate his contract.

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“I have had the great honor of serving as this foundation’s chairman for the last five years and its mission and success are my top priorities,” Armstrong said in a statement. “Today therefore, to spare the foundation any negative effects as a result of controversy surrounding my cycling career, I will conclude my chairmanship.”

Armstrong, the seven-time Tour winner who denies ever doping, founded the organization in 1997 after he survived testicular cancer and it sold millions of yellow Livestrong wristbands and went on to partner with Nike to sell millions of dollars of Livestrong gear.

In a statement on Wednesday morning, Nike said the evidence that Armstrong had doped was so overwhelming that it could no longer partner with him. In the past, the company stood by athletes like Kobe Bryant, who was accused of sexual assault but never convicted, and Tiger Woods, who gained international notoriety for his extramarital affairs. Nike severed ties with Michael Vick when he went to prison for his role in a dogfighting ring but later re-signed him.

“Due to the seemingly insurmountable evidence that Lance Armstrong participated in doping and misled Nike for more than a decade, it is with great sadness that we have terminated our contract with him,” the statement said. “Nike does not condone the use of illegal performance enhancing drugs in any manner. Nike plans to continue support of the Livestrong initiatives created to unite, inspire and empower people affected by cancer.”

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An indicator of voter enthusiasm … and network cred.

October 22, 2012

What people watch is – in my opinion – an indicator of their preferences … since folks tend to read & watch stuff that is consistent with their beliefs.

And, the numbers of people watching is a rough indicator of intensity – how many folks are on the wavelength.

So, let’s look at recent cable news ratings …

Fox primetime averages about 3.5 million viewers … MSNBC about 1.5  … and CNN under 750k.

Note that Stewart & Colbert get  categorized as news shows (which still makes me scratch my head) … outdraws MSNBC and creams CNN.

Fox drawing more than double MSNBC has got to be good news for Romney … Comedy Central’s draw must be good news for Obama.

My prediction: Candi Crowley’s debate performance – interjecting herself into the Benghazi challenge, interrupting Mitt 26 times, giving Obama 9% more air time – will hurt her credibility as a newsperson and certainly won’t help CNN’s constant claim of being an unbiased source of news. That network’s slide will continue.

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Reprinted from Drudge

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