Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.
Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.
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Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.
The Homa Files 
October 30, 2012 at 9:43 am |
That’s the infamous Fordham “Initial Report” which was compiled in the hours following the 2008 election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an incorrect estimate of a 6.15 Obama lead. Obama, in fact, won by 7.28 percent.
The Fordham prof later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote outcome. Eight pollsters were more accurate than Pew and Rasmussen. This subsequent report can be found at http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf
October 31, 2012 at 1:50 pm |
[…] Here’s what we reported yesterday: […]