Archive for October 31st, 2012

Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 31, 2012

A sharp-eyed Homa Files reader commented that the rankings we posted yesterday were preliminary … and that the Fordham prof. officially published a final listing that has substantially different ranking.

Here’s what we reported yesterday:

According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

The finals report still has Gallup, CBS, NY Times, and Reuters (C-SPAN) at the bottom of the heap.

Rasmussen and Pew – the preliminary winners – drop to the middle in the final report.

At the top: McClatchy, CNN and Fox … with Democracy Corps copping the top prize.

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Thanks to D. Vargas for feeding the lead

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Sandy’s impact on the election

October 31, 2012

Pundits have been speculating re: the impact that Sandy will have on the Presidential election.

Generally, the chatter is about the possibility of low turnout in some swing places like  central city Philly (not sure why) and southwestern Virginia (blizzards).

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My take: Sandy increases the probability of one possible outcome – that Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote …  maybe by a statistically significant margin.

My logic: The hardest  hit states are all solid Blue: MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA

Obama will undoubtedly carry those states … by big margins.

So, put yourself in the shoes of somebody who is still bailing water out of his basement, or rebuilding his house, or just waiting for the electricity to finally go back on.

Are you going to drop everything and hustle to the polls to cast an insignificant vote?

I wouldn’t … except maybe if there was a close local race that I was interested in.

So, I predict that Obama will win the Sandy states, but by a lesser margin than he would have sans Sandy.

Since the states are major population states, that drop could be significant.

So, it’s entirely possible that Obama ekes out an electoral victory, but loses the popular vote.

Just maybe …

= = = = =
Related:

For a nice recap of the legal aspects of delaying the election, extending hours, etc., see  Could Sandy postpone the election?

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Posted in 2012 Campaign | 1 Comment »

WSJ: M.B.A.s Rethink Wall Street

October 31, 2012

According to the WSJ …

Repeated cutbacks have dulled Wall Street’s luster for some prospective Masters of the Universe, in the latest reflection of the gloom overhanging the finance industry.

A Wall Street gig “isn’t as prestigious as it used to be” because the future—promotion opportunities, salary gains, even basic job security— is so unclear.

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“Students’ interest and appetite has become much, much more diverse” over the past decade, says Julie Morton, associate dean of career services and corporate relations at University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Students are increasingly lured by start-ups and stable jobs at consumer-products firms and industrial conglomerates.

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Posted in Careers & Interviewing, MBA Degree, MBAs | Leave a Comment »

Highly educated folks most likely to pile on too much debt …

October 31, 2012

Recently released research suggests that despite generally held assumptions, it wasn’t just uneducated people, and not just homeowners, who precipitated the financial crisis by taking on too much debt.

Before the financial crash of 2008, it was highly educated Americans who were most likely to pile on unmanageable levels of debt.

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Overall, the percentage of Americans who were paying more than 40 percent of their income for debts like mortgages and credit card bills increased from about 17 percent in 1992 to 27 percent in 2008.

But college-educated people were more likely than those with high school or less education to be above this 40 percent threshold – considered to be a risky amount of debt for most households.

“People with college educations may have thought they were immune to any economic problems. But when people stop believing things might go bad, that’s when they get in trouble.”

Source

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Posted in Consumer debt, Financial Crisis | 1 Comment »

Re: Friday’s big number … what to expect (if the BLS doesn’t hide-the-weinie).

October 31, 2012

Hurricane Sandy has put the BLS between a rock and a hard place.

There are 3 scenarios:

1) The BLS hides behind Sandy’s skirt-tails and  takes an incomplete — failing to report the most important number in the most important election … until the election is over.  Just imagine if Obama wins and the BLS reports next week (or next month)  that the unemployment rate went back up to 7.9% or 8% or higher.

2) The BLS rushes a preliminary number that shows the unemployment rate going down to, say,  7.8% … and then revises it upward after the election. Think, the BLS streak of under-reporting initial unemployment claims.

3) The BLS reports that the unemployment rate went down again as still another 850,000 folks find part-time work somewhere, someplace … and, Jack Welch goes nuts.

4)  The BLS reports on time that the unemployment rate went up and Obama orders a DOJ investigation.

* * * * *
My bet: They’ll report on time that the unemployment rate clicked up to 7.9% …  it’s the best “managed” number …. let’s Obama crow that it’s under the magic 8% … and, let’s Romney point out that it’s going in the wrong direction.

Based on the numbers, I’d expect the unemploymen rate to bounce back up to at least 8%.

Here’s my logic…

Initial unemployment claims should track pretty closely with the reported unemployment rate, right?

Well, they do usually … but didn’t last month when the miraculous 7.8% was reported.

Just eyeballing the chart below – which maps the 4-week moving average of initial claims against the unemployment rate – one might have expected an unemployment rate of just over 8% … not 7.8%

Looking forward to this Friday’s unemployment rate … based on the 4-week moving average of initial claims … the unemployment rate should pop back to at least 7.9% … maybe back over over 8%.

That is, unless Welch is right and the BLS is cookin’ the books.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | 2 Comments »

Which demo groups is Obama doing better with this time around?

October 31, 2012

Trick question: According to the latest Pew Poll Report , Obama’s support has fallen with all groups (except Democrats”) … from his actual performance in 2008 and his projected performance in 2012.

His biggest drops are among Independents (down 12 percentage points) and young 18-29 voters (down 10 percentage points).

Versus Sen. McCain’s results in 2008, Romney shows modest gains almost across the board.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »