Archive for July 22nd, 2020

From “flattening the curve” to “learning curves”…

July 22, 2020

A conceptual rationale for why COVID cases are surging but deaths aren’t.
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All along I’ve been arguing that the truest and most relevant measure of COVID-fighting is the death rate.

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

And, I’ve recently been showcasing the relationship between confirmed cases and deaths.

See: Where’s the case-related spike in deaths?

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The data says: Since mid-April, the number of daily confirmed cases has more than doubled, but the number of daily new reported deaths has apparently stabilized at about half of mid-April levels.

How can that be?

Here’s a way of thinking about the how & why…

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July 22: C-10 Data Dashboard

July 22, 2020

144,944  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,113 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 829

66,933 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,322

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…  (more…)