Archive for August 11th, 2020

Ohio Gov. DeWine tests negative … after testing positive.

August 11, 2020

Not a surprise according to Bayes’ Theorem

According to the NYT and many other sources…

As part of a screening by the White House, Mr. DeWine first received an antigen test, a newer type of test that provides faster results but is less accurate than traditional laboratory testing.

He tested positive for Covid-19

He was later twice-tested using a more standard procedure known as polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., an accurate but time-intensive method that requires samples to be processed at a laboratory.

That test result was negative for the Covid-19.

DeWine’s experience is a classic “false positive” … to be expected based on Bayes’ (Statistical) Theorem.


Let me explain…


Aug. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 11, 2020

166,161  Deaths-to-Date

538 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025    (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,932  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,344


Details below…