We’ll reach the promised land by early June … maybe earlier!
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That’s later than Dr. Makary (“We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”.) … but way sooner than Dr. Fauci, who’s still pitching Christmas (or just before the 2022 elections).
In prior posts, we’ve worked through the logic of our simple forecasting model.
Our foundational premise: People develop immunity to COVID in 2 main ways: (1) by surviving a COVID infection and developing “natural immunity, or (2) by getting vaccinated.
So, if those 2 groups add up to 200 million (80% of the 225 million adults 18 & over), we’ve reached the promised land: herd immunity.
Statistical note: There is some overlap between the 2 groups, namely people who get vaccinated even though they have survived Covid infections and likely have natural immunity. Our forecast adjusts for the overlap.
Based on our assumptions (which are delineated below, after the table) and our calculations, we’ll most likely get to herd immunity before summer.
Specifically, in May in our likely scenario (think: 80% likely) … early June in our highly likely scenario (think: near certainty)
Below are our key assumptions & calculations…
The Homa Files 