Just for the record…
The 538 (Nate Silver) poll-of-polls is weighted by “quality of the poll” and recency has Youngkin up by just under 1%.
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The RCP poll-of-polls has Youngkin up by 1.7%
> Neither candidate breaks the magic 50% level
> The 3 most recent polls average Youngkin up by 44%
> Dropping the Fox Poll cuts Youngkin’s advantage to .4%
Reminder: in 2020, liberals praised the Fox News stats crew for calling Arizona early on election night.
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The Trafalgar Group — right-leaning, rated “A” by 538 for reliability, most recent poll — has Youngkin up by 2.3%
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Averaging the 3 above sources give Younkin about a 1.5% advantage.
If 1.5% is the over/under, I’m betting the over (way over)
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Reminder: Fairfax County is Deep Blue, heavily populated with gov’t employees & contractors, and always posts results late … so, Younkin supporters shouldn’t do touchdown dances prematurely.
The Homa Files 