Archive for November 2nd, 2021

VA Gov Race: Final Polls

November 2, 2021

Just for the record…

The 538 (Nate Silver) poll-of-polls is weighted by “quality of the poll” and recency has Youngkin up by just under 1%.

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The RCP poll-of-polls has Youngkin up by 1.7%

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> Neither candidate breaks the magic 50% level

> The 3 most recent polls average Youngkin up by 44%

> Dropping the Fox Poll cuts Youngkin’s advantage to .4%

Reminder: in 2020, liberals praised the Fox News stats crew for calling Arizona early on election night.

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The Trafalgar Group — right-leaning, rated “A” by 538 for reliability, most recent poll — has Youngkin up by 2.3%

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Averaging the 3 above sources give Younkin about a 1.5% advantage.

If 1.5% is the over/under, I’m betting the over (way over)

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Reminder: Fairfax County is Deep Blue, heavily populated with gov’t employees & contractors, and always posts results late … so, Younkin supporters shouldn’t do touchdown dances prematurely.


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