Archive for the ‘Base Rates’ Category

American Pharoah: Odds-on favorite, but scientific long-shot …

June 5, 2015

In prior posts we reported how history is against American Pharoah  — How often do Derby & Preakness winners nail the Triple Crown? — and how bettors like long-shots — Biases: The favorite-long shot bias … ».

Today we’ll wrap up Triple Crown Week, excerpting an interesting piece in Wired titled “Science says that American Pharoah won’t win the triple crown”

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Here’s the essence of the scientific argument …

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Is 150 a big number or a little number?

September 12, 2014

In his speech this week, President Obama said:

Last month, I ordered our military to take targeted action against ISIL to stop its advances. Since then, we have conducted more than 150 successful airstrikes in Iraq.

He made it sound like a big deal … and built on the point, saying that the air strikes would continue across a wider target area.  Possibly extending into Syria.

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Picture from NATO web site

Of course, the comment got me thinking … are 150 airstrikes a lot or a little?

Works out to about 5 missions per day … which doesn’t strike me as up there with shock & awe.

But, I wanted to put 5-a-day in context and got some counsel  from a friend…

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