Posts Tagged ‘2012 election’

Obama: A brand in search of a slogan …

April 13, 2012

Everyone knows that Barack Obama’s campaign slogan was “Hope & Change” in 2008.

But, according to left-leaning Politico:

No one seems to know what it will be for 2012.

The White House has been cycling through catchphrases since announcing his reelection bid a year ago:

  • Winning the Future
  • We Can’t Wait
  • An America Built to Last
  • An Economy Built to Last
  • A Fair Shot.

And, my favorite:

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

January 12, 2012

Below is our original post from January 2012 … way before it’s time.

The facts are still the same, but the context has changed with Obama going head-to-head with Romney … and folks asking “What if they tie?”

Click here for an updated post specific to Obama-Romney

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?
The Homa Files, January 2012

There are still rumbles that some candidate (think Ron Paul) might run as a 3rd party candidate.

The conventional pundit wisdom is that a 3rd party candidate who splits off from the GOP would simply siphon off GOP votes and seal Obama’s re-election.

I have another scenario to offer up.

What if Ron Paul ran on a 3rd party ticket and was able to win one or more swing states?

Sounds crazy, but think Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire … ‘wildcard’ swing states with large college populations.

Keep in mind that Paul has enthusiastic support among college kids and young adults … partly driven by his staunch anti-war philosophies, his reverence for the Constitution  and his unshakable candor.

To that point, it’s being reported that — based on exit polls — Ron Paul won over  half of the votes of those under 30 in the New Hampshire contest.

Imagine that Paul wins enough electoral delegates to keep Obama or, say, Romney from reaching the magic number – 270 electoral votes.

What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

According to the Electoral College web site …

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote.

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes, with each Senator casting one vote for Vice President.

So, the Congressional arm that Obama keeps ranting about could be the body that ultimately determines whether he’ll be living in DC or Chicago after the election.

Wouldn’t that ironic twist be fun to watch ?

Click here for an updated post specific to Obama-Romney

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Uh-oh: Obama slips among youth and independents …

December 19, 2011

I’ve said before: I have run into folks who voted for Obama in 2008 who say they won’t vote for him in 2012, but haven’t run into anybody who didn’t vote for him in 2008 who say they will in 2012.

Data seems to confirm my random anecdotal evidence …

From the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll:

Not only is Pres. Obama’s overall approval rating lagging, but he’s lost as much (or even more) ground among groups that favored him in 2008 as among those who resisted him last time.

Overall, Obama has slipped from 52.8 percent of the vote in 2008 to 44 percent approval in the new survey with 49 percent disapproving.

As the chart below shows, Obama has declined not only in the groups that were always dubious of him, but also with several that enthusiastically joined his winning 2008 majority.

The groups that have proven most resistant to this trend are Hispanics (where Obama’s latest approval rating has slipped just three percentage points from his 2008 vote share); seniors (where he’s actually running slightly ahead) and families earning at least $100,000 annually (where he’s also fallen just three percentage points.)

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