If you answered 270 … you’re wrong.
The correct answer is 269.
And, if Romney prevails with 269 electoral votes, there’s a quirky possibility that Biden could be his VP.
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What if Obama & Romney tie at 269 ?
Given the 2012 swing states, it is unlikely , but mathematically possible for Obama and Romney to each win 269 electoral votes.
As we’ve posted before, a tie would be resolved in the House (for President) and in the Senate (for Vice President).
Practically every pundit and pollster is predicting that the GOP will win a majority of states in the House.
- Important technical note: the new House & Senate get sworn in on January 3rd source and hold a joint session on January 6th to “count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote” source
So, in the case of a tie, the House would pick the President … and, assuming that the GOP wins the House, Romney wins with 269 electoral votes
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What about the Vice Presidency ?
Remember, the Senate picks the VP.
I’d been assuming that the Senate would certify Ryan if there was a tie … regardless of whether Dems or GOP win the Senate
I overlooked a major factor: the Vice President also holds another postion — President of the Senate.
That’s a largely ceremonial role … except that the VP votes to breaks ties in Senate votes.
That’s why things get interesting.
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What if the Senate-elect is tied 50-50
If there’s a tie and the GOP wins the Senate … Ryan gets the VP slot.
If the Dems win the Senate by a couple of seats, my bet is that they would allow Ryan to prevail rather than set-up a ridiculous Romney-Biden pairing.
After all, Romney would just deploy Joe to supermarket openings and state funerals.
But,if the Senate-elect is split 50-50, then the VP slot becomes very meaningful.
Remember that the VP is the President of the Senate and votes to break ties.
Here’s a quirk: Biden – as sitting VP – would get a vote on who wins – him or Ryan.
And, in a 50-50 Senate, there are likely to be a lot of ties … making the President of the Senate position very important.
So, you gotta expect that Biden would vote for himself – as VP – but, more meaningfully, as President of the Senate.
Bingo. A Romney-Biden scenario.
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