B of A says “the Coronavirus is rolling over”.
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If you’ve been following our Daily C-19 Data Dashboard, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the 7-day moving average of confirmed cases has fallen by over 30% since its peak on July 23.
That’s good news but the case counts– as we oft repeat — are a very fuzzy-math number since they are impacted by the number and mix of people being tested.
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Positivity Rate
Dr. Birx says to watch the percentage of people testing positive — the so-called “positivity rate”.
It’s currently at 6.5% — about 1/3 of the rate during the NY-area outbreak.
That’s also good news but, again, “positivity” is an equivocal metric since it’s impacted by the mix of people being tested.
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So, the B of A analysts say to focus on hospitalization rates.
The Homa Files 