Archive for November 10th, 2022

Election turnout: Gallup nailed it!

November 10, 2022

One chart provides some clues into the election results
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The below chart hit my email box early on election day.

image

I glanced at it … then dismissed it as an outlier to the polls and punditry on turnout.

Most said sky high turnout, especially among fed-up Republicans and inflation drained budgeters.

And, the “generic ballot” gave the edge to the GOP

Getting to the point…

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Gallup queried folks on whether they were more or less enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterm election compared to prior midterms.

As the above chart illustrates:

In 2010, 2014 and 2018 … GOP voting enthusiasm was very high … and higher than Dem enthusiasm

But, for this year:

  • GOP voting enthusiasm dropped from 72% in 2018 to 49% this year … a whopping 23 percentage point drop.
  • Dem voting enthusiasm also dropped …  from 69% % in 2018 to 57% this year … but, 8 percentage points higher than GOP voting enthusiasm

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According to an AP / WaPo analysis, turnout (as a percentage of eligible voters) did, in fact, drop this year … down to about 48%

image

And, if the mix conforms to the Gallup voting enthusiasm mix, it suggests that proportionately more Dems were “enthusiastic” and more of them turned out to vote than GOPs.

If the actual turnout numbers confirm that conclusion, it’ll explain a lot about the election results … and, Gallup should get credit for spotting the marker.


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