Archive for November 8th, 2022

The dogs just aren’t eating the dogfood…

November 8, 2022

A left-leaning think tank blisters Dems with a data-rich pre-mortem.

Pre-election, many Dem pundits started lamenting dumb voters (only on the right, of course) and bad messaging … failing to tout touting Biden’s accomplishments and failing to convince the unwashed that climate change and “democracy” are on the ballot, not Biden, inflation, crime or illegal immigration.

That is, until Third Way — a center-left think tank backed by some of the biggest names in Democratic politics — sounded an alarm about deep-seated party flaws. Source

Channeling the Third Way report, Axios outlined the “brutal bill of particulars”.

  • “Democrats are underwater on issues voters name as their highest priorities, including the economy, immigration, and crime.”
  • “While Democrats maintain a lead on handling certain issues like abortion and climate change, voters also rank these issues as lower priorities.”
  • “Voters question whether the party shares essential values like patriotism and the importance of hard work. … Only 43% of voters say Democrats value hard work, compared to 58% for Republicans.”
  • “Even in the areas where Democrats are trusted more [including education], it is not clear that voters are sold on Democrats’ approach or ability to get things done.”
  • Democrats are benefitting from a perception among voters that Republicans are extreme, but…  voters think Democrats are extreme as well.”


Bottom line: Third Way concludes that Democrats are “out of touch on priorities, ideology and values”.

Other than that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?


P.S. The entire Third Way report — loaded with polling results and analysis — is worth reading.

Key Senate Races: Game Day Bets & Odds

November 8, 2022

Election Day morning…

The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market, Election Betting Odds and Silver 535 are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line:

  • Vance is a prohibitive favorite in Ohio
  • All 3 sources agree that Walker is an odds-on favorite in Georgia
  • Silver calls Nevada a toss-up … others call Laxalt an odds-on favorite
  • Silver has Oz a slight favorite in Pennsylvania … others have Oz a stronger odds-on favorite
  • Toss-up in Arizona …Silver has Kelly as a slight favorite … others have Masters a slight favorite … call it a toss-up

It’s Silver against the bets & odds….


Key Senate Races: Final-Final Polls

November 8, 2022

What the polls are saying on election morning…

OK, I jumped the gun yesterday when I recapped what I thought were final polls.

A couple of pollsters reported “fresh” polls yesterday and overnight.

So, today — election day — let’s re-recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

  • Trafalgar calling all 5 (OH, NV, GA, PA, AZ) for GOP
  • Silver calling AZ for Kelly … other 4 for GOP
  • RCP final: Toss-up in AZ … other 4 for GOP
  • NYT / Sienna on another planet <= no surprise
  • Runaway for Vance in Ohio
  • Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
  • Slight lean to Walker in GA … Kemp’s coattails … UGA football fever – Herschel put the Dawgs on the map!
  • Slight lean to Oz in PA ,,, Silver flipped from lean Fetterman to lean Oz … Oz pitching Biden’s “close all coal plants” blurt
  • Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona … only Trafalgar calling it for Masters … others may be under-estimating Lake’s coattails


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