Archive for November 18th, 2022

Will somebody please pass the crow?

November 18, 2022

About the election polls
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A week or so before the election, the NY Tomes published a poll in conjunction with its polling partner Sienna University.

The poll’s results were contrary to the red wave being reported by other big name polling outfits.

Like many, I dismissed the NYT-Sienna Poll as an outlier… after all, it was the Dem partisan New York Times.

But, now that most of the dust has settled: The NYT-Sienna got all 4 of the most closely watched Senate races right.

Note: On the 5th — Ohio — NYT-Sienna pegged the race as a dead heat.

Not kinda right …  nearly perfectly right!

Their share of votes predictions were practically dead on the final results.

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How does that compare to the other top name polling services?

> The RCP’s poll-of-polls and Silver 535 were close in Ohio … had Kelly in AZ … but mis-called winners in NV, GA and PA

> Trafalgar … was closest to the pin on Ohio … but miscalled winners in NV, GA, PA and AZ … OUCH!

> NYT-Sienna … called ties in OH and NV   … but were spot on the other 3 races.

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My take: The NYT-Sienna poll was the clear winner this round.

Time to eat, so pass the crow to the other pollsters … and me, for buying into Trafalgar and the “wisdom of the (pollster) crowd”.

Oh well… better luck next time, right?


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