Posts Tagged ‘Rasmussen’

Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 30, 2012

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

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Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

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IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, poll, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

The “top box effect” … measuring folks with strong feelings.

August 6, 2012

Last Friday’s Rasmussen Report paints an interesting picture.

Disclaimer: yes, Rasmussen tends to lean right.

I’ve always been a proponent of the “top box effect” …  i.e. focusing of folks who either strongly approve or strongly disapprove of a product … or a candidat.

Well, Rasmussen reports that President Obama’s “Presidential Approval Index” – the strongly approves minus the strongly disapproves – is now 23 points underwater.

And, the number of folks who strongly disapprove outnumber the total number who approve (strongly plus somewhat) … 45% to 44%

Those are what’s called statistically significant numbers !

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