Archive for October, 2010

Palin vs. Obama: Barack challenges Todd for "First Dude" title.

October 29, 2010

During Sarah’s GOP acceptance speech she introduced her husband Todd as the “First Dude”.

Now, John Stewart is trying to transfer that title to Barack Obama.

Let the battle begin …

In the Daily Show, Obama had a friendly host and an even friendlier crowd.

He was making this first-ever appearance by a president on the Daily Show as part of a long-shot effort to rekindle the spirit of ’08.

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“You don’t want to use that phrase, dude,” Stewart recommended (to President Obama).

Dude.

The indignity of a comedy show host calling the commander in chief “dude” pretty well captured the moment for Obama.

Washington Post, “On the Daily Show, Obama is the last laugh”, October 27, 2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/27/AR2010102709035.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

So, on Monday, the Dem candidate for governor tells Obama to “stuff it” …  and, on Wednesday, John Stewart calls him “dude”.

I love this stuff.

What do Barack Obama and Rodney Dangerfield have in common?

October 29, 2010

According to Dangerfield and the President, they get no respect.

Charles Krauthammer sums it up nicely …

Obama Underappreciation Syndrome

Opening a whole new branch of cognitive science — liberal psychology — Obama has discovered a new principle: The fearful brain is hard-wired to act befuddled, i.e., vote Republican.

But of course. Here Obama has spent two years bestowing upon the peasantry the “New Foundation” of a more regulated, socially engineered and therefore more humane society, and they repay him with recalcitrance and outright opposition.

Here he gave them Obamacare, the stimulus, financial regulation and a shot at cap-and-trade — and the electorate remains not just unmoved but ungrateful.

Faced with this truly puzzling conundrum, Dr. Obama diagnoses a heretofore undiscovered psychological derangement: anxiety-induced Obama Underappreciation Syndrome, wherein an entire population is so addled by its economic anxieties as to be neurologically incapable of appreciating the “facts and science” undergirding Obamacare and the other blessings their president has bestowed upon them from on high.

I have a better explanation.

Better because it adheres to the ultimate scientific principle, Occam’s Razor, by which the preferred explanation for any phenomenon is the one with the most economy and simplicity.

And there is nothing simpler than the Gallup findings on the ideological inclinations of the American people. Conservative: 42 percent. Moderate: 35 percent. Liberal: 20 percent.

No fanciful new syndromes or other elaborate fictions are required to understand that if you try to impose a liberal agenda on such a demonstrably center-right country — a country that is 80 percent non-liberal — you get a massive backlash.

Washington Post, Obama Underappreciation Syndrome, October 22, 2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/21/AR2010102104856.html

My early high school football coach Howie Weyer — who got 15 minutes of fame by refusing to hire smokers and fat people when he left football and went into business — used to drum in to us: respect is something you earn.

Hear that, Dude?

Eliminating MediCare waste and fraud … so, how’s that going?

October 29, 2010

It has been about 6 months since ObamaCare was passed.

About half of the funding is supposed to come from MediCare, and Obama said not to worry — most of that would come from eliminating waste and fraud.

Except for the Andy Griffith ad, there’s been eery silence about progress cutting waste & fraud.

Hmmm … as I was wondering how they’re doing on that, the WSJ published the following:

Somewhere in the New York City area there is a family-practice doctor who, in 2008, pocketed more than $2 million from Medicare, the federal insurance program for the elderly.

That made her one of the best-paid family-medicine physicians in the Medicare system.

But more noteworthy than the sum is her pattern of billing, which strongly suggests abuse or even outright fraud, according to experts who have examined her records.

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Unfortunately, the Medicare database comes with a severe limitation.

While the services and earnings of hospitals and other institutional providers can be publicly identified, such information is kept strictly confidential for doctors and other individual providers.

The reason is that the American Medical Association, the doctors’ trade group, successfully sued the government more than three decades ago to keep secret how much money individual physicians receive from Medicare.

The AMA stands by its position and says little would be accomplished by publishing individual physician billing information.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704696304575538112856615900-lMyQjAxMTAwMDIwNjEyNDYyWj.html

Oh yeah … the AMA –which represents less than 20% of U.S. doctors — is on board for ObamaCare.

Hmmm, again.

 

Book ’em, Lord … Bye, bye Danno

October 29, 2010

Not a good year for fans of the  real Hawaii Five-O.

Right when I start to get over Kono being recast as a girl  in the new rip-off series … then BANG ! … the real Danno goes down for the count.

Ouch.

They say “natural” causes.

I’m betting cardiac arrest when he saw what they did to the classic series.

James MacArthur, Danno on Original ‘Hawaii Five-0,’ Dies, October 28, 2010

James MacArthur, who for 11 years played Det. Dan Williams (Danno of “Book ’em, Danno”) on the original “Hawaii Five-0” television series, had died. He was 72.

No cause of death was given other than “natural causes.” He was cast as Det. Dan Williams on “Hawaii Five-0” after a producer noticed his brilliant, one-take performance as a traveling preacher in the 1968 Clint Eastwood film “Hang ’em High.”

He played Danno for 11 years but left before the show’s final season in 1980, saying that the role no longer challenged or interested him.

http://www.thewrap.com/television/column-post/james-macarthur-danno-original-hawaii-five-0-dies-22064

My question: how could a guy stop being challenged playing Danno?

Go figure.

Thanks to Straz for feeding the lead.

Competition is Brewing Among Single-Serve Coffees

October 29, 2010

TakeAway: An advertising battle is breaking out in the single-serve coffee business as the holiday season nears.

The single-serve business—in which consumers pop “pods” or cartridges into household machines that brew individual cups of coffee, espresso and other java drinks—is gaining traction in the U.S. after becoming popular in Europe.

This is a highly competitive market with plenty of room to grow, but holiday spending is still expected to be fairly low due to the economy.

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Excerpted from the Wall Street Journal, “The Single-Serve Push” By Suzanne Vranica, October 14, 2010

Nestlé is just one of the companies that have either started or will start major ad pushes, geared toward the holidays.  Other players include Kraft, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Mars, Royal Philips Electronics and Sara Lee.

Currently, only about 7% of U.S. households have a single-serve coffee machine. About 60% of the coffee machines are sold during the holiday months, though companies make most of their profits selling the containers or “pods” that hold the coffee.

The onslaught of advertising comes as consumers remain cautious about spending. Single-cup coffee typically costs less than $1 a serving, but consumers have to spend between $100 and $400 on the machines. There are also upscale models that cost well above $500. Still, food companies and analysts say consumers may be more willing to make coffee at home rather than buying it from local cafes.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703673604575550191974954922.html?mod=WSJ_hps_editorsPicks_3

 

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Testimony to Sarah Palin’s smarts are certified … by John(Cougar) Mellancamp

October 28, 2010

Who need glowing transcripts when John Cougar has your back?

Post on left-leaning Politico …

Aging rock star John Cougar Mellencamp supported Obama in 2008 and even asked the McCain campaign to stop using his songs for rallies.

But the AP reported that the singer has been vocal in his admiration for someone else of late: Sarah Palin.

“The legendary rocker says that while he doesn’t support her positions, he is impressed by the mark she’s made on the country since the 2008 election.”

The singer also voiced his opinion about Palin’s intellect, saying that people ignore her smarts “just because she says things and winks.”

Mellencamp thinks that behind the winking and the “you betchas” Palin has a master plan. He said the former governor “knows exactly what’s she doing” and “wouldn’t be where she is today if she didn’t.”

The Indiana-native also gives Palin a nod of approval for paddling her way through the political world, saying “she’s pushing the right buttons” and “you can’t be stupid and do that.”

http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1010/mellencamp_palins_smart.html

P.S. I.m still waiting to see Obama’s transcripts?

Update: But they like him as a person, and like Michelle even more … oh, really?

October 28, 2010

This one has perplexed me for a awhile.

The constant refrain is that a people don’t like Obama’s policies, but they like him as a person.

Well, in  the most recent CBS/NYT (left-leaning) poll, Obama’s job approval was 47% ,,, his personal approval was 40%.

Hmmm.

And about Michelle being way more popular than Barack …

Her personal approval scores 41% favorable … a point better than her hubby.

Now, to be fair, 73% of folks who have a point of view on her rate her favorably (41% / 56%) … but, she’s a total non-factor to 41%.

image

image

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/27/politics/main6997687.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody

HIGH ALERT: To the lifeboats … Guam may capsize!

October 28, 2010

Thanks to U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson from Georgia’s Fourth Congressional District.

Since he is running for re-election , I have an excuse to reprise one of y favorite posts …

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I got a laugh out this one …

The pay-off comes right after the geography lesson.

Keep in mind: the questioner is a US Congressman ( YIPES !)

Ask yourself: How can the Admiral who is being questioned keep a straight face

Our government at work …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNZczIgVXjg&feature=player_embedded

image
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNZczIgVXjg&feature=player_embedded

Original post:
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2010/04/02/high-alert-to-the-lifeboats-guam-may-capsize/

The data mining business is booming

October 28, 2010

TakeAway: There’s a market for personal data created by internet users.  A big market.

Hoping to find out what people are saying about products or topics, companies are willing to pay data mining companies to scour the internet for online conversations or forum posts.

For the most part, it’s legal.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Wall Street Journal, “’Scrapers’ Dig Deep for Data on Web,” by Julia Angwin and Steve Stecklow, October 12, 2010

… The market for personal data about Internet users is booming, and in the vanguard is the practice of “scraping.” Firms offer to harvest online conversations and collect personal details from social-networking sites, résumé sites and online forums where people might discuss their lives.

The emerging business of web scraping provides some of the raw material for a rapidly expanding data economy. Marketers spent $7.8 billion on online and offline data in 2009, according to the New York management consulting firm Winterberry Group LLC. Spending on data from online sources is set to more than double, to $840 million in 2012 from $410 million in 2009. …

Some companies collect personal information for detailed background reports on individuals, such as email addresses, cell numbers, photographs and posts on social-network sites.

Others offer what are known as listening services, which monitor in real time hundreds or thousands of news sources, blogs and websites to see what people are saying about specific products or topics.

Internet users often have little recourse if personally identifiable data is scraped: There is no national law requiring data companies to let people remove or change information about themselves, though some firms let users remove their profiles under certain circumstances.

Many scrapers and data brokers argue that if information is available online, it is fair game, no matter how personal.

Scrapers operate in a legal gray area. Internationally, anti-scraping laws vary. In the U.S., court rulings have been contradictory. …

Screen-scraper charges between $1,500 and $10,000 for most jobs. The company says it’s often hired to conduct “business intelligence,” working for companies who want to scrape competitors’ websites.

One recent assignment: … attempting to scrape Facebook for a multi-level marketing company that wanted email addresses of users who “like” the firm’s page—as well as their friends—so they all could be pitched products. …

Edit by DMG

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Full Article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703358504575544381288117888.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird

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President says: "Vote to punish your enemies" … oh, really?

October 27, 2010

This week, at a Dem rally, Obama prodded the group to “get out the black vote”

He told Latinos to “vote to reward your friends and to punish your enemies”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-latinos-punish-your-enemies-voting-booth_511932.html

He told supporters that “Republicans can come along, but they have to ride in the back”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101025/ap_on_el_pr/us_obama

Wow.

Just imagine if those clever phrases were flipped and voiced at a Tea Party rally.

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image
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-obamas-unsustainable-strategy-hunkamania-dempocalypse-and-more_513012.html

1 in 3 Dems give O a negative job approval rating … whoa, Nellie.

October 27, 2010

The headline from the most recent Harris Interactive poll is that President Obama’s job approval rating dipped to 37% — the lowest (I think) in any poll.

More interesting than the total number is his slipping approval among self-identified Dems and Liberals … 1 in 3 of them dings the President.

For comparison, 90% of GOPers and 89% of conservatives disapprove of the job the President is doing.

image

Naked Juice makes a splash

October 27, 2010

TakeAway: Sales of super premium juices have held up relatively well in a downturn, despite the products’ high price points.

PepsiCo launched the first national ad campaign for Naked Juice, its premium bottled juice brand.

Acai-based juices are competing on authenticity about their products, while up-and-coming brands deride mass market brands.

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Excerpted from Brandweek, “Naked Juice Ads Tell ‘Naked Truth’” By Elaine Wong,October 1, 2010

The campaign kicked off on digital properties and Naked Juice’s Facebook page. It highlights the brand’s promise—”no added sugar or preservatives”—and invites consumers to submit their own “naked truth.” Digital banner ads show live conversations consumers are having about the brand.

Print ads, which break in magazines such as Fitness and Shape, target consumers ages 25 to 35, who are “health-conscious, active and balanced in their food choices,” said Naked Juice’s marketing director.

Naked Juice was one of two pioneers (its rival is Odwalla) in the super premium juice category. But over time, the category’s original positioning and heritage became diluted, mainly, competitors coming into the marketplace are now introducing products with added sugar and extra water.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3ifd62d5f2cdeae60ecdfda51c1a6f4e83

 

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I worked so hard to get that title …

October 26, 2010

From David Zucker, producer of “Airplane”, “Naked Gun”, and other spoofs …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixiYZ9DPk8o&feature=player_embedded

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixiYZ9DPk8o&feature=player_embedded

iPad’s astonishing adoption rate

October 26, 2010

TakeAway: The DVD player used to be the most quickly adopted non-phone electronic product, until the iPad launched.

In less than three months Apple sold 3 million iPads, blowing away the 350,000 DVD players sold in the first year.

As people replace their laptops with iPads, companies like Microsoft could be in trouble.

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Excerpted from CNBC’s Fast Money, “iPad Adoption Rate Fastest Ever, Passing DVD Player,” by John Melloy, October 4, 2010

Apple’s iPad sold three million units in the first 80 days after its April release and its current sales rate is about 4.5 million units per quarter, according to Bernstein Research. This sales rate is blowing past the … the 350,000 units sold in the first year by the DVD player, the most quickly adopted non-phone electronic product. …

At this current rate, the iPad will pass gaming hardware and the cellular phone to become the 4th biggest consumer electronics category with estimated sales of more than $9 billion in the U.S. next year …

… Pete Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com …. “It’s really a total media device and there’s not much a PC can do that you can’t do on an iPad.”

It took five years for the DVD to reach the unit sales pace that the iPad reached in just its first quarter, according to Bernstein. The iPad had the advantage of being the extension of Apple’s ever-expanding ecosystem of iPhones, iPod touches and Macs that are marked by ease of use and a familiar style.

… not only are the iPads cannibalizing the netbook/notebook category in stores, but could also be hurting sales of TVs and digital cameras. …

Apple has been the rare company that keeps the “first mover” advantage. As tablets from Microsoft and Research-In-Motion soon flood the market, and Apple’s market capitalization approaches Exxon Mobil, the company’s going to need the next big extension of that ecosystem. Apple TV is on sale now.

Edit by DMG

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Full Article
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39501308

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O’s victory lap: approval rating reaches all time low.

October 25, 2010

The President has been rallying his base in in the bluest states.

Looks like there might be a bit of backlash to his message of ‘stay the course’ , ‘spread the wealth’, ‘fear the evil empire’.

He’s back to his all-time approval low of 41% in Gallup … and just a tad below his disapproval high of 52% (which he hit Aug 15-17, 2010)

What ever happened to ‘hope’ and ‘change’ ?

image

This ad says it all …

October 25, 2010

Watch it first, then read the background below …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM&feature=player_embedded

Background

“Last week, Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW) unveiled a national ad addressing our country’s spending addiction, the dangers of relentless deficits, and the corrosive nature of our national debt.

The ad features a chilling look at one potential future scenario if America continues on its current destructive fiscal trajectory.

The new ad is part of an ongoing communications program in CAGW’s decades-long fight against wasteful government spending, increased taxes, out-of-control deficit spending, and a crippling national debt that threatens the future and survival of our country.

CAGW plans to run the ad on major cable networks throughout the rest of 2010 and into 2011.”

http://www.cagw.org/

 

Ben & Jerry’s isn’t all natural?

October 25, 2010

TakeAway: Ben & Jerry’s has come a long way since it was just two guys making ice cream.

Now owned by Unilever, the brand is trying to remain authentic.

However, it’s “All Natural” ingredients aren’t what everyone considers natural.

Bowing to pressure from an advocacy group, Ben & Jerry’s will remove “All Natural” labeling from 48 products.

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Excerpted from Brandchannel, “Ben & Jerry’s Bows to ‘All Natural’ Pressure,” by Shirley Brady, September 27, 2010

Ben & Jerry’s is removing the phrase “All Natural” from its packaging as a result of a request from a health advocacy group.

The Washington-based Center for Science in the Public Interest announced that the Vermont-based ice cream-maker, which is owned by Unilever, has agreed to remove the words “All Natural” from all its ice creams and frozen yogurts “that contain alkalized cocoa, corn syrup, partially hydrogenated soybean oil, or other ingredients that aren’t natural.”

The move “amicably” resolves a dispute arising from a letter that the Center for Science in the Public Interest sent last month to Unilever. The letter said that at least 48 Ben & Jerry’s products were “improperly labeled.”

Ben & Jerry’s responded to an inquiry from AP it won’t change any recipes, but will remove the disputed phrase gradually from all packaging.

One major point of contention: the FDA “has no formal definition for ‘natural.'” … “The Food and Drug Administration could do consumers and food manufacturers a great service by actually defining when the word ‘natural’ can and cannot be used to characterize a given ingredient,” CSPI Executive Director Michael F. Jacobson said in a statement. …

 

Edit by DMG

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Full Article
http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2010/09/27/Ben-Jerrys-All-Natural-Ban.aspx

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Gut check for Obama: What if Google were Exxon ?

October 22, 2010

Obama loves to vilify Exxon-Mobil.

One theme: Exxon paid no U.S. income taxes in 2009.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Tax/ge-exxon-paid-us-income-taxes-09/story?id=10300167&page=2

Yep. Exxon uses strategies to minimize their U.S. corporate income taxes.  All completely legal — nothing that other companies don’t do — they’re just better at it and their income numbers have a lot of digits.

GE does the same — with about the same results.

Obama never bashes GE.

Why?

A cynic might say it’s because CEO Immelt has become a visible cheerleader for many of Obama’s wacky initiatives … hoping GE will get a bunch of the business from the government and green technology ventures.

Yesterday’s news frenzy re: Google using tax schemes to get their U.S. tax rate down to 2.4% presents Obama with a dilemma.

He should be publicly vilifying them … especially now that he’s out on the west coast.

After all, 2.4% is not statistically different from zero when it comes to tax rates.

And, it doesn’t smell right when companies are using tax strategies known  as the “Double Irish” and the “Dutch Sandwich”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html

But, Obama has been mum on the revelations … and you can bet he’ll stay that way.

Why ?

Google is 3rd among tech giants (behind Microsoft and Cisco) in political giving.

Guess what? 75% of their political contributions go to Democrats.
http://politics.usnews.com/news/articles/2010/07/02/high-tech-industry-gives-more-money-to-democrats.html

As Gomer Pyle would say: “Suprise, suprise, suprise>” (sic)

And, Google CEO Eric Schmidt has always been an Obama favorite.

Schmidt stumped for Obama in 2008.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/20/google-ceo-eric-schmidt-e_n_136047.html

Schmidt has been on Obama’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology since day one.
http://venturebeat.com/2009/04/27/googles-schmidt-and-microsofts-mundie-join-obama-advisory-council/

And — when Christine Romer suddenly realized that her daughter was entering high school and resigned from the Council of Economic Advisers — Schmidt was rumored to be on the short list of replacements.

Hmmm.

Google is lucky it’s not Exxon.

Bullet dodged …

What you earn is a function of what you learn …

October 22, 2010

I don’t often quote Bill Clinton (except for “depends on what the meaning of the ‘is’ is”) … but he’s on the mark with this one …

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Slate, The Great Divergence: The United States of Inequality, Sept. 8, 2010

Bill Clinton said more than once when he was president, “What you earn is a function of what you learn.”

That had always been true, but Clinton’s point was that at the close of the 20th century it was becoming more true, because computers were transforming the marketplace. A manufacturing-based economy was giving way to a knowledge-based economy that had an upper class and a lower class but not much of a middle class.

The top is occupied by a group  labeled “symbolic analysts.”

These are people who “simplify reality into abstract images that can be rearranged, juggled, or experiment with” using “mathematical algorithms, legal arguments, financial gimmicks, scientific principles, psychological insights,” and other tools seldom acquired without a college or graduate degree.

At the bottom were providers of “in-person services” like waitressing, home health care, and security.

The middle, once occupied by factory workers, stenographers, and other moderately skilled laborers, is disappearing fast.

Did computerization create the Great Divergence?

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In the 1950s, at the dawn of the computer age, people first began to worry that automation would bring about mass unemployment.

Computers represented an entirely different sort of new machine.

Previously, technology had performed physical tasks.

Computers were designed to perform cognitive tasks.

Theoretically, there was no limit to the kinds of work computers might eventually perform … “a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less human labor.”

The kinds of jobs computers tend to eliminate are those that require some thinking but not a lot — precisely the niche previously occupied by moderately skilled middle-class laborers.

Consider the sad tale of the bank teller. Over the last 30 years, people pretty much stopped ever stepping into the lobby of their bank; instead, they started using the automatic teller machine outside and eventually learned to manage their accounts from their personal computers or mobile phones.

Contemporary culture is so fixated on the computer revolution that the very word “technology” has become an informal synonym for “computers.”

But before computers we witnessed technological revolutions brought on by the advent of the automobile, the airplane, radio, television, the washing machine, the Xerox machine, and too many other devices to name.

Most of these earlier inventions had much the same effect as the computer—that is, they increased demand for progressively higher-skilled workers.

Full article:
http://www.slate.com/id/2266025/entry/2266508/

Goya looks beyond Latinos …

October 22, 2010

TakeAway: For decades, Goya has been at home in Latino households. 

Now, it’s going after a broader, general market with a new advertising campaign, and for the first time in its 75-year history, Goya is using mobile technology in its efforts.

Goya Foods’ biggest general market effort runs counter to those of many other food companies, which are focusing their efforts on the growing Latino population in the United States.

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Excerpted from NYTimes, “Goya Aims to Expand the Neighborhood” By Tanzina Vega,September 23, 2010

 After conducting focus groups in New York and Houston in June, Goya learned that non-Latinos were looking to “spice up” their everyday meals.

 So, Goya is talking to general market consumers.

Rather than teaching the general population “to cook Latino,” the campaign encourages general market consumers to include Goya products in their everyday cooking (e.g. casseroles, salads and meatloaf) and not just for the occasional taco night.

As part of the effort, Goya worked with the Food Network’s Web site, Foodnetwork.com, and bought a one-day home page banner ad that resulted in more than 700,000 views.

The campaign will not appear on social-networking sites like Twitter and Facebook because Goya’s ad agency hasn’t seen ROI on them.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/24/business/media/24adco.html?_r=2&ref=global

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Why Liberals Don’t Get the Tea Party Movement

October 21, 2010

I had dinner recently with a liberal friend.  When the conversation turned to politics (sorry, my fault) he blasted Fox News and the Tea Party. Nothing specific, just the general sort of “dumb devils” stuff.

So, I asked my usual follow-up questions to verify that he hasn’t ever tuned in to Fox — it’s all what Jon Stewart and Rachel Maddow say about Fox — and that he has simply bought into the drivel that the Tea Party are racists who nominate wacky candidates like Christine O’Donnell. Evidence of racism?  None except “they’re all white”. What about 91% of blacks siding with Obama? “That’s different”.  What about candidates like Harry Reid and Alan Grayson? “Yeah, we have some wingnuts, too.”

Always makes me wonder how some smart folks can get so passionate without diving deeper than the sound bites. I don’t question their sincerity, but do question their rigor.

As I’m thinking about this stuff, this op-ed popped up about why well educated libs think the way they do.

Bottom line: that’s what they were taught college, and all of the headlines re: Fox and Tea fit their learned model, so there’s no need to research any deeper.

Hmmm.

WSJ: Why Liberals Don’t Get the Tea Party Movement, October 16, 2010

The tea party movement’s focus on keeping government within bounds and answerable to the people reflects the devotion to limited government embodied in the Constitution.

One reason this is poorly understood among our best educated citizens is that American politics is poorly taught at the universities that credentialed them.

For the better part of two generations, the best political science departments have concentrated on equipping students with skills for performing empirical research.

Meanwhile, leading history departments have emphasized social history and issues of race, class and gender at the expense of constitutional history, diplomatic history and military history.

Neither professors of political science nor of history have made a priority of instructing students in the founding principles of American constitutional government.

Then there are the proliferating classes in practical ethics and moral reasoning. These expose students to hypothetical conundrums involving individuals in surreal circumstances suddenly facing life and death decisions, or present contentious public policy questions and explore the range of respectable progressive opinions for resolving them.

Such exercises may sharpen students’ ability to argue, but hey do little to teach about self-government.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704631504575531913602803980.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Gallup say unemployment is 10% … and post-election unemployment report will be ugly

October 21, 2010

Last month, BLS reported unemployment level at 9.6% when Gallup reported an whopping increase to 10.1%.

Hmmm.

Now, Gallup reports that in mid-October, unemployment is at 10.0%  — essentially the same as the 10.1% at the end of September but up sharply from 9.4% in mid-September and 9.3% at the end of August.

Gallup says: This mid-month measurement confirms the late September surge in joblessness that should be reflected in the government’s Nov. 5 unemployment report.

image

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143714/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Mid-October.aspx

Overall employment in advertising, marketing, promotions and PR is expected to jump 13 percent in the next decade, but …

October 21, 2010

… according to CNBC, career prospects for client-side Advertising and Promotions Managers are weakening.

The stats:
Employed in U.S.: 44,600
Change expected in next decade: -2%
Average salary: $80,220

The situation:
Overall employment in advertising, marketing, promotions and PR is expected to jump 13 percent in the next decade, but for those who direct a firm’s ad campaigns and promotions aimed at driving sales, prospects are expected to drop by 2 percent.

The drop is largely due to the economy – and the changing landscape of the media business.

Advertising and promotions are also subject to demand in the industries they’re promoting, so if an industry is hard hit by the economic slump, it will take a toll on the advertising and promotions managers that work with it.

The advertising industry is changing rapidly as the media and Internet landscape changes, making it crucial for advertising and promotions managers to be flexible and creative in harnessing new methods of promoting products.

Job opportunities will be greatest for those with a high level of creativity, plus strong communications and computer skills, and those who quickly adapt to new media such as the Internet and social media.

Full article:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39541097?slide=7

She’s not qualified to be Senator … so what?

October 20, 2010

Christine O’Donnell is taking a lot of flack for not being qualified to be a US Senator.

Hmmm.  Started me thinking.

What qualifies somebody to be a Senator?

Does an Ivy League law degree do it? Or, experience running a company?

How about a couple of decades of sleazy backroom dealing?

More directly, what difference does it make if Senators simply vote like lemmings along party lines?

Doesn’t seem like experience matters one bit.

An example: Mark Warner of VA touted his business credentials when he campaigned for the Senate.

Since he’s gotten there, he’s voted straight Dem on all significant issues.

As a former entrepreneur, he sees no risk in raising taxes during a recession. Really?

When he was a CEO, did he make business decisions based on numbers as flakey as the CBO’s?  I doubt it.

I’m not looking for qualifications any more.

I just want somebody who will vote the will of the people instead of the will of their party.

Period.

P.S. How come these people weren’t so concerned about qualifications in 2008 ?

Dems: “An inefficiently distributed base of voters”

October 20, 2010

An interesting election snippet that caught my eye …

“The Democratic Party has “an inefficiently distributed base of voters.”

It “consists mostly of union workers, upscale urban liberals and minority voters, many of whom are clustered in highly Democratic districts.”

In many other districts, Democratic candidates depend on “independents and soft partisans,” the very voters who have defected from the Obama coalition of 2008.

If Democrats lose control of the House by a small number of seats, this might be condign punishment for a practice they favor  — racial gerrymandering.

It concentrates African-American voters in majority-minority districts in order to guarantee the election of minority candidates.

George F. Will: An election of historic significance
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=George+F.+Will%3A+An+election+of+historic+significance&articleId=289c83e0-246d-46a2-aaa6-701321cf476f

What are women talking about?

October 20, 2010

TakeAway: Women consumers are an formidable force, shaping how billions of marketing dollars are spent annually.

However, getting a deep view of their market influence, especially in a digital and social age, has been hard to come by.  A new monthly brand index aims to change that.

Women drive 85% of all consumer purchases (often by being unofficial brand ambassadors) and talk about brands constantly – about 92 per week.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Brandweek, “Women’s Top Brands Listed” By Jim Cooper,September 27, 2010

A new monthly brand index that’s designed to be a comprehensive measure of the 25 brands most important to women compiles online search data, social media buzz data and online chatter.

Brands that used new media in their marketing mix were some of the biggest movers on the list. Gap, for example, which moved from No. 44 to No. 17 in August, offered a discount incentive to shoppers that checked in through Foursquare. Pizza Hut also offered a discount via Foursquare in August and saw its rank hit No. 60 from No. 73.

Brands with recently launched social initiatives also had solid gains on the index. Starbucks moved to No. 33 from No. 59 with a boost from buzz about an in-store donation program to help rebuild neighborhoods in New Orleans. And Olive Garden hit No. 92 from No. 145 with the news that it had raised $6 million for the Lymphoma and Leukemia Society through its Pasta for Pennies program.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3i386774579db7c2033a69ab0af09f5664?pn=1

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Folks don’t think clearly when they’re scared …

October 19, 2010

Interesting blurb from Newsweek …

Obama said Saturday evening in remarks at a small Democratic fundraiser:

“Part of the reason that our politics seems so tough right now and facts and science and argument does not seem to be winning the day all the time is because we’re hardwired not to always think clearly when we’re scared.

Obama Clings Again! Blames “Scared” Voters.
http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/kausfiles/2010/10/17/obama-clings-again-blames-scared-voters.html

Point 1: True.  Every athlete knows that people perform worst when they’re in a state of panic. Every student who has taken a test knows that, too.

Point 2: Obama was clearly talking about the scared, dumb voters who haven’t seen the light and may — in their panic — pull the lever for a Repunlican in 2 weeks.

Question: Has the President looked in a mirror recently?

Maybe he doesn’t consider facts and science when he’s scared …

That would explain wacky moves like picking a fight with business, generally, and the US Chamber of Commerce. specifically.

To conform with ObamaCare, Boeing cuts employee health benefits …

October 19, 2010

Punch line: Boeing is joining the list of companies that say the new health care law has downsides for their workers and is paring its plan.

Ken’s Take:

(1) Last week, McDonald’s and 30 other companies got waivers from ObamaCare … let’s see how long it takes for Boeing to get their waiver.

(2) Boeing has a huge cluster on employees in Washington state … the Senate battle in Washington is close … incumbent Patty Murray voted for ObamaCare … bet this becomes an issue.

* * * * *

According to AP …

“The newly enacted health care reform legislation, while intended to expand access to care for millions of uninsured Americans, is also adding cost pressure as requirements of the new law are phased in over the next several years.”

The Boeing plan is more generous than what its closest competitors offer, and the company was concerned it would get hit with the new “Cadillac” health plans tax under the law.

“We want to manage our costs so this tax doesn’t apply to our plan.”

Boeing said annual deductibles and copayments will increase for all its plans next year.

Deductibles, the share of medical costs that employees pay annually before their plan kicks in, will go up to $300 for individuals, an increase of $100. For families, the new deductible will be $900, an increase of $300.

In addition, Boeing is instituting a copayment of 10 percent after the deductible has been met. The copayment will rise to 20 percent in 2012.

Full article: AP, Citing health care law, Boeing pares employee plan, Oct 18, 2010
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101018/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_costs_boeing

When it comes to consumer choice … less can be more.

October 19, 2010

TakeAway: Many companies take the approach that giving customers more choices is better.

But, there’s only so much information the human brain can process.

Recent research highlights that giving consumers fewer choices can provide a competitive edge.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Strategy + Business, “A Better Choosing Experience,” by Sheena Iyengar & Kanika Agrawal, September 27, 2010

When Baskin-Robbins opened in 1953, its line of 31 flavors — one for every day of the month — was a novelty. At the time, such variety was unheard of, and Baskin-Robbins used it to stand out from other chains. …

Today it seems obvious to offer consumers more choice — but the experience is no longer a novelty, or nearly as much fun. …

Consumers have grown accustomed to having a lot of choice, and many people still express a strong desire for having more options. But that doesn’t make it a good idea. There are neurological limits on humans’ ability to process information, and the task of having to choose is often experienced as suffering, not pleasure.

That is why, rather than helping consumers better satisfy their preferences, the explosion of choice has made it more difficult overall for people to identify what they want and how to get it. Thus, if the market for your product is saturated with choice, you can’t gain a competitive edge by dumping more choices into the mix. … You can design a more helpful form of choice.

The goal of a new approach to choice should not be to manipulate consumers into making choices that aren’t right for them, but rather to collaborate in a way that benefits both of you. …To accomplish this, here are four actions you can take:

  1. Cut the number of options.
  2. Create confidence with expert or personalized recommendations.
  3. Categorize your offerings so that consumers better understand their options.
  4. Condition consumers by gradually introducing them to more-complex choices.

Offered together, these actions can distinguish your company. Rather than trapping people in a morass of alternatives, you’ll be one of those rare companies whose offerings rise to the top by raising customer spirits. …

Each of these forms of customer engagement can be technologically enabled, for example, through online networks or social media. But the heart of this method lies in better design of the shopping experience, fueled by better awareness of human capabilities. …

From the outset, your design shows them that you understand how they think and respect their desire for both control and simplicity. The message is clear: In the short run, you are helping them navigate a bewildering and even debilitating world of options. In the long run, you are inviting them to choose you.

Edit by DMG

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Full Article
http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00046?gko=13ead

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Musings: “Hey dude, why are you snapping your fingers ?”

October 18, 2010

3 variants of a very old joke:

Original
A dazed guy is standing on a street corner snapping his fingers.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you snapping your fingers ?”  Dazed guy answers: “To keep away elephants”.  Curious guy says: “There aren’t any elephants around here.” Finger snapper says: “See.  It works.”

Recent Past Version
A President is standing on a street corner ordering troops to Iraq.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you ordering troops to Iraq ?”  Troop-sender answers: “To avert another terrorist attack”.  Curious guy says: “There haven’t been any terrorist attacks since 9-11.”  President says: “See.  It works.”

Current
A President is standing on a street corner spending like a drunken sailor.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you spending like a drunken sailor ?”  Free-spender answers: “To avert an economic depression”.  Curious guy says: “There’s no depression around here.”  President says: “See.  It works.”

Hmmm.

Why are only 2 of these counter-factuals considered far fetched by the media?

Shocker: Facebook caught selling your name to advertisers … along with your friends’ names … and your friends’ friends’ names … and …

October 18, 2010

Ever wonder how Facebook and its app partners makes money?

Well the obvious has become clear.

Get people to self-select into interest groups … gather their contact info … then figure out who they hang with … then sell that very precise targeting info to marketers.

Ca-ching…

According to the WSJ …

Top-Ranked Applications Transmit Personal IDs

Many of the most popular applications, or “apps,” on the social-networking site Facebook have been transmitting identifying information — in effect, providing access to people’s names and, in some cases, their friends’ names — to dozens of advertising and Internet tracking companies.

WSJ, Facebook in Privacy Breach,  Oct. 18, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304772804575558484075236968.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEADNewsCollection

Worth reading … though it’s probably too late to secure your personal info.

Now, even black bloggers raise some doubts …

October 18, 2010

According to the ultra right leaning New York Times

The President held a special session at the White House for black bloggers.  He told them:

“Black blogs reach the part of our audience that’s not be watching ‘Meet the Press’ — not that there’s anything wrong with ‘Meet the Press.’ I’m just saying that, you know, it might be a different demographic,” he added, stirring a few laughs from the group.

Strikes me as a minority analogy to low income whites “grabbing for their guns and bibles”.

Seems that it had that effect on some in the audience …

Jack and Jill Politics (a black oriented blog) wrote that the feeling among some who attended Monday’s gathering was  that they were being used for political expediency.

“We essentially told the White House that we are not willing to be ‘pimped,’”

The guy certainly has a way with words, doesn’t he ?

* * * * *
New York Times, White House Meeting for Black Journalists, October 13, 2010
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/white-house-summit-for-black-journalists-doesnt-stay-off-the-record-for-long/

To see the video:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/14/obama_blacks_probably_dont_watch_meet_the_press.html

Testing the pricing waters

October 18, 2010

TakeAway: Companies that sell consumer mainstays are rolling out price increases in a collective test of America’s economic strength and in response to higher raw-material costs.

If consumers are willing to pay more, it could indicate the economy is turning a corner, but also serve as a warning that inflation could spiral.

If consumers balk at higher prices, though, it would represent a setback and could pinch corporate profits. Some companies could be forced to backtrack with discounts if sales falter.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Wall Street Journal, “Gingerly, Retailers Try to Pass Along Higher Costs” By Liam Pleven,October 2, 2010

The ability of companies to sustain such price increases may sway how the Federal Reserve views the health of the economy, and potentially figure in its decision on whether another big round of stimulus is needed. The country’s low rate of inflation was cited by the Fed last month as a main reason the central bank is considering further steps to juice the economy.

Companies say some labor costs are rising, particularly for overseas manufacturing, and point to rising commodities prices. Commodities typically make up less of a company’s costs, but prices have risen sharply, with cotton up 38% this year, coffee up 33% and rubber up 17%.

Some firms successfully increased prices earlier in the year, with little or no discernible impact on inflation. The 6% increase that Goodyear began rolling out for consumer tires follows on another 6% rise in June. The firm cited higher raw-material costs.

But many other firms held off on charging more even though the recession technically ended more than a year ago, because they were concerned about a consumer backlash and losing sales to rivals.

Still, some companies are dipping their toes in the water daintily, targeting specific products.

Starbucks, for instance,  is raising prices on “labor-intensive and larger-sized beverages,” but maintaining or lowering the price of a regular cup of coffee in most markets.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704029304575526331692863238.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_business

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Must Read: Home Depot founder says "Stop Bashing Business, Mr. President"

October 15, 2010

This will the the buzz on the talk shows today.

Ken Langone was one of the 3 founders of Home Depot.

His Punch Line: “If we tried to start The Home Depot today, it’s a stone cold certainty that it would never have gotten off the ground.”

Highlights are below.  Worth reading the whole piece.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ: Stop Bashing Business, Mr. President, Ken Langone, Oct.15, 2010 

Your insistence that your policies are necessary and beneficial to business is utterly at odds with what you and your administration are saying elsewhere. You pick a fight with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, accusing it of using foreign money to influence congressional elections, something the chamber adamantly denies.

Your U.S. attorney in New York, Preet Bahrara, compares investment firms to Mexican drug cartels and says he wants the power to wiretap Wall Street when he sees fit.

And you drew guffaws of approving laughter with your car-wreck metaphor, recently telling a crowd that those who differ with your approach are “standing up on the road, sipping a Slurpee” while you are “shoving” and “sweating” to fix the broken-down jalopy of state.

Your short-sighted wavering—between condescending encouragement one day and hostile disparagement the next — creates uncertainty that, as any investor could tell you, causes economic paralysis. That’s because no one can tell what to expect next.

          * * * * *

If we tried to start Home Depot today, under the kind of onerous regulatory controls that you have advocated, it’s a stone cold certainty that our business would never get off the ground, much less thrive.

Rules against providing stock options would have prevented us from incentivizing worthy employees in the start-up phase—never mind the incredibly high cost of regulatory compliance overall and mandatory health insurance.

Still worse are the ever-rapacious trial lawyers.

          * * * * * 

Meantime, you seem obsessed with repealing tax cuts for “millionaires and billionaires.”

I stand behind no one in my enthusiasm and dedication to improving our society and especially our health care.

[I’m willing to pay higher taxes.] Just make sure that money actually reduces federal spending and isn’t simply shifted elsewhere.

I guarantee you that many millionaires and billionaires will gladly forego government benefits — as my wife and I already do when we forward those checks each month to charity.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704361504575552080488297188.html

Dems losing "guys who spend nights wearing funny hats"

October 15, 2010

A couple of interesting election snippets that caught my eye …

* * * * *

“Forget about Big Business moving away from us,” said one administration official, “we’re losing the Kiwanis Club guys who own a small business and spend their nights wearing those funny hats.

They’re independents and we need them but all the class warfare stuff seems to have pushed them away.”

Daily Beast, Obama Secretly Courts Big Business, by Charlie Gasparino
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-10-14/how-obama-secretly-courts-big-business/2/

* * * * *

“The Democratic Party has “an inefficiently distributed base of voters.”

It “consists mostly of union workers, upscale urban liberals and minority voters, many of whom are clustered in highly Democratic districts.”

In many other districts, Democratic candidates depend on “independents and soft partisans,” the very voters who have defected from the Obama coalition of 2008.

If Democrats lose control of the House by a small number of seats, this might be condign punishment for a practice they favor and that Republicans have cynically encouraged — racial gerrymandering.

It concentrates African-American voters in majority-minority districts in order to guarantee the election of minority candidates.

George F. Will: An election of historic significance
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=George+F.+Will%3A+An+election+of+historic+significance&articleId=289c83e0-246d-46a2-aaa6-701321cf476f

Dems losing “guys who spend nights wearing funny hats”

October 15, 2010

A couple of interesting election snippets that caught my eye …

* * * * *

“Forget about Big Business moving away from us,” said one administration official, “we’re losing the Kiwanis Club guys who own a small business and spend their nights wearing those funny hats.

They’re independents and we need them but all the class warfare stuff seems to have pushed them away.”

Daily Beast, Obama Secretly Courts Big Business, by Charlie Gasparino
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-10-14/how-obama-secretly-courts-big-business/2/

* * * * *

“The Democratic Party has “an inefficiently distributed base of voters.”

It “consists mostly of union workers, upscale urban liberals and minority voters, many of whom are clustered in highly Democratic districts.”

In many other districts, Democratic candidates depend on “independents and soft partisans,” the very voters who have defected from the Obama coalition of 2008.

If Democrats lose control of the House by a small number of seats, this might be condign punishment for a practice they favor and that Republicans have cynically encouraged — racial gerrymandering.

It concentrates African-American voters in majority-minority districts in order to guarantee the election of minority candidates.

George F. Will: An election of historic significance
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=George+F.+Will%3A+An+election+of+historic+significance&articleId=289c83e0-246d-46a2-aaa6-701321cf476f

Buy me, I’m the underdog …

October 15, 2010

TakeAway: Americans love to root for the underdog.

New research shows that this tendency is applicable to marketing.

In a difficult economic environment, marketers have been leveraging underdog brand perceptions where feasible to gain consumer favorability.

* * * * *

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “The Consumer Appeal of Underdog Branding,” by Martha Lagace, September 13, 2010

Picture the Jamaican bobsled team going for the gold at the Winter Olympics.

Or competitors in what seem fundamentally unbalanced battles: the Chicago Cubs versus the New York Yankees, Apple versus Microsoft, and Southwest Airlines versus United.

In the public eye, the weaker party is often more attractive. Why?

The reason might be an increasing willingness on the part of consumers to identify with the underdog. In today’s economically difficult times, it appears, underdog brands are gaining psychological, and real, power in the marketplace. …

“Today, underdog brand biographies are being used by both large and small companies and across categories …. Even large corporations, such as Apple and Google, are careful to retain their underdog roots in their brand biographies.” …

“Through a series of experiments, we show that underdog brand biographies are effective in the marketplace because consumers identify with the disadvantaged position of the underdog and share their passion and determination to succeed when the odds are against them.”

Marketers can use underdog narratives to positively affect consumers’ perceptions of and purchase of brands …

The common themes that link … underdog biographies are

  1. a disadvantaged position in the marketplace versus a “top dog,” a well-endowed competitor with superior resources or market dominance, and
  2. tremendous passion and determination to succeed despite the odds.  

Brand managers need to consider the credibility of the underdog narrative for the firm.

Many brands emphasize their underdog roots, but if they are later acquired by large corporations, it diminishes the credibility of their underdog brand biographies.

Brands such as Ben & Jerry’s and Snapple have been criticized by consumers once they were acquired by large corporations. …

Edit by DG

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Full Article
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6351.html

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Dem Governor sums up ObamaCare …

October 14, 2010

Ken’s Take: Pretty well sums up my point of view … nice that coverage got expanded, but no structural change to the system … just moves money (and paper) around … and jams gov’t bureaucrats in the middle of a very personal process.

* * * * *
Excerpted from the National Review …

Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen, a Democrat who was once on the Obama administration’s short list for the job of Health and Human Services secretary, has called the Affordable Care Act “a stunning disappointment.”

“The problem isn’t that we expanded coverage,” Bredesen writes in his new book “Fresh Medicine,” referring to the millions of uninsured and under-insured people who can now either buy insurance with the help of federal vouchers and the creation of state health exchanges.

“The problem was expanding coverage is about all we did.”

It’s “about all we did,” because Bredesen thinks that expanded entitlement saddles an already burdened federal government drowning in red ink with additional – and expensive – obligations.

Government loves complexity, rules and red tape, but we may have outdone ourselves this time,” Bredesen writes.

“Reform offered a chance to clean up the baroque system we have created over the years, reduce bureaucracy, lower administrative cost and give clarity and focus to a major part of where we spend our taxpayers’ money.

“Instead, we created more complexity, more regulations and the need for more bureaucracy.”

Dem Governor: Obamacare a ‘Stunning Disappointment’, October 12, 2010
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/249550/dem-governor-obamacare-stunning-disappointment-daniel-foster

About those folks whose taxes Obama wants to raise …

October 14, 2010

An interesting factoid from the Tax Foundation …

The scorned “wealthy” taxpayers — those earning more than $200 – $250k — work an average of 48.1 hours per week … those earning less than that amount dodge Obama’s tax arrow — they work an average of 38.8 hours per week.

In other words, on average, the wealthy tax targets work about 20% more hours than the Obama-classified non-wealthy.

Makes sense to punish them for working harder, right ?

* * * * *

Tax Foundation Fiscal Fact, No. 247,  September 22, 2010
http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ff247.pdf

Harley gets some gray hairs …

October 14, 2010

TakeAway: Times are tough at Harley-Davidson, but not just because of the economy.

The guy who comes to mind when you think of a Harley owner is getting too old to ride.

Even worse, there are not enough younger potential customers who want a Harley because it’s not as exclusive as it used to be.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Fortune, “Harley-Davidson’s aging biker problem,” by Alex Taylor, September 17, 2010

Harley-Davidson was the feel-good turnaround story of the 1990s and then the poster-boy for brand values in the 2000s. How often did you read that Harley was the only consumer brand whose customers were so loyal they wore the company’s logo tattooed on their chest?

But after expanding exuberantly in the last decade, Harley has fallen on hard times. Now it is struggling against a foe that not even cost-cutting nor brand loyalty can overcome: demographics. Its current owners are getting old, and not enough younger ones are coming up behind them.

Harley’s core customer is a middle-aged white American male, a group that will contract in the coming decade. …

Bumpy roads are nothing new for Harley. … Fighting back at what it perceived as unfair competition [from Japanese manufacturers], the company won an anti-dumping ruling from the International Trade Commission in 1982, and President Reagan imposed a 45% additional tariff on super heavyweight Japanese bikes.

Given an opening, Harley used the opportunity provided by the tariffs to regroup. … Harleys became a cult item; Harley dealers packed extra charges onto list prices and compiled waiting lists for prospective customers. By the late 1990s, certain models were back-ordered for two years.

After resisting the temptation to expand, Harley belatedly added production capacity and grandiosely predicted sales would reach 400,000 by 2007. But with ample supply, Harleys began to lose their cachet. Sales peaked in 2006 at 349,000. …

Harley’s famous brand couldn’t buffer it from the downturn once owning a Harley stopped being cool.

… Harley survived earlier economic downturns when other discretionary consumer durables slumped because Harleys were in short supply. As it built capacity to meet demand, Harley became just another manufacturer, vulnerable to a cyclical economy. In the fourth quarter of 2009, it suffered its first quarterly loss in 16 years.

The days when Harleys were a fashion accessory are likely over. …The challenge for Harley-Davidson in 2010 is to adjust to the new normal.

Edit by DMG

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Full Article
http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/17/autos/harley_davidson_fall.fortune/index.htm

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A perspective on job growth and failed policies

October 13, 2010

Here’s a chart of total US employment from 2000 to today.

image

A couple of observations;

  • Employment was flat from 2000 to 2003 … remember the bursting of the dot com bubble and the 9-11 terrorist attacks ?
  • There was strong employment growth between 2003 and 2007 …  remember the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003? … hmmm
  • The financial collapse in 2008 reversed practically all of the prior 5 year gains … resulting in a net ‘no gain’ during the Bush years

So, when the Dems talk about the failed policies of the prior 10 years, exactly what are they talking about?

Hard to make a case that the Bush tax cuts creamed the economy.  To the contrary, looks like they created strong job growth.

Obviously, the culprit is the financial crisis – a mix of the disastrous housing policy (think Fannie & Freddie) …  and loose regulation of mortgage backed securities and derivatives.

Bush shares blame for the Fannie and Freddie fiasco … but blame for that is easily spread across the Clinton a administration and the Congress (i.e. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd).

OK, you can taint Bush with loose financial regulation and enforcement.

But, fin-reg does little to address the egregious security & derivative transgressions … and nothing has been done with Fannie & Freddie.

The main “Bush policy” being targeted by Dems are the tax cuts – of which less than 20% were “for the wealthy” – doesn’t look to me like they’re job killers.  Go figure.

Sierra Mist Goes Au Naturel

October 13, 2010

TakeAway: PepsiCo has renamed and repackaged its lemon-lime soda to Sierra Mist Natural and introduced a new campaign to reflect the beverage’s more natural ingredients.

The new tagline: “The soda nature would drink if nature drank soda.”  Perhaps, a bit of a stretch …

* * * * *
Excerpted from Brandweek, “PepsiCo Pitches Sierra Mist Natural” By Elaine Wong,September 21, 2010

According to PepsiCo, the reformulated soda contains no preservatives or artificial flavors and is now made with real sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup.

 The commercials communicate Sierra Mist Natural’s new positioning by showing a variety of “nature experts” – rocks, trees and a rainbow – craving for the product.

 Major beverage companies such as PepsiCo and Coca-Cola have traditionally spent more marketing their cola brands, but now they’re turning their attention to growing consumer demand for natural products.

In fact, “natural” is a top priority when it comes to carbonated soft drinks.

The campaign aims to get the message across by positioning Sierra Mist Natural as the “hero” in each of the scenarios and using humor.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3i430e0ec60c443f0944fff88b91feabeb

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"Don’t make me look bad, now” …

October 12, 2010

Delivering a rallying  speech at historically black Bowie State University in Maryland a few days ago, the president got downright personal: “Don’t make me look bad, now.”

It’s not easy to convert exhaustion into enthusiasm. But if Obama doesn’t want to look bad, that’s what he has to do.

Washington Post, Need to Translate into Votes, Oct. 12, 2010
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/12/will_need_translate_to_votes_107522.html

Whatever happened to hope and change ?

Obama’s latest rally-shout isn’t exactly “win for for the Gipper”, is it ?

“Don’t make me look bad” is one of his current campaign themes … along with bashing Boehner (who ?), Rove, Gillespie (who ?), the US Chamber of Commerce (huh ?), oil companies, banks, big pharma, insurance companies, etc.

Then, after telling the crowds to “buck up” and get to work for their local Dem candidates, he headed for the links.

President Obama hit the golf course Saturday for what, by CBS News’s Mark Knoller’s calculation, was his 52nd such outing since taking office.

The Hill, Obama hits links for 52nd golf day, 10/09/10
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/123511-obama-hits-links-for-52nd-golf-day

Guess he hasn’t heard the management mantra: “Walk the talk.”

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BTW: How does one “buck up”?

“Hey dude, why are you snapping your fingers ?”

October 12, 2010

3 variants of a very old joke:

Original
A dazed guy is standing on a street corner snapping his fingers.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you snapping your fingers ?”  Dazed guy answers: “To keep away elephants”.  Curious guy says: “There aren’t any elephants around here.” Finger snapper says: “See.  It works.”

Current
A President is standing on a street corner spending like a drunken sailor.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you spending like a drunken sailor ?”  Free-spender answers: “To avert an economic depression”.  Curious guy says: “There’s no depression around here.”  President says: “See.  It works.”

Recent Past Version
A President is standing on a street corner ordering troops to Iraq.  Curious guy approaches and asks “Hey dude, why are you ordering troops to Iraq ?”  Troop-sender answers: “To avert another terrorist attack”.  Curious guy says: “There haven’t been any terrorist attacks since 9-11.”  President says: “See.  It works.”

Hmmm.

Why are only 2 of these counter-factuals considered far fetched by the media?

Better president — Obama or Bush ?

October 12, 2010

Bottom line : According to a CNN poll, public perceptions are a tie — within the margin of statistical error — … Obama 47%, Bush 45% Question and numbers below.

Commentary form UK’s Telegraph says it all:

Yes, President Bush, America does miss you

The CNN poll is of course deeply humiliating for the White House, especially coming just three and a half weeks before the November mid-terms. George W. Bush’s resurgence is in large part due to mounting opposition to the Obama’s presidency’s left-wing agenda, but it is also spurred by Obama’s image as an out of touch, aloof and elitist president, divorced from economic and political reality on the ground.

A lot of Americans frankly miss the down-to-earth and significantly warmer leadership style promoted by President Bush, as well as his unfailing sense of optimism and heart-felt pride in America on the world stage. You certainly won’t ever find Bush apologising for his country or extending the hand of friendship to her enemies.

And when Bush’s memoir “Decision Points” is published on November 9th, I’m in no doubt it will storm The New York Times’ bestseller list riding a new wave of nostalgia for his time in office. George W. Bush is back in fashion with a vengeance, in marked contrast to his increasingly unpopular successor in the White House.

Telegraph, Yes, President Bush, America does miss you, October 8th, 2010 
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100058215/yes-president-bush-america-does-miss-you/

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Question: All in all, do you think Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, or do you think Bush was a better president than Obama has been?

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http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/08/rel14a.pdf

Gillette offers a new – cheap – shave … in India, that is.

October 12, 2010

TakeAway:

Gillette’s newest shaving system has just one blade, a light plastic handle and a sharply lower price.  The Gillette Guard will hit stores – in India – next week and costs 15 rupees, or 34 cents, and uses blades that cost five rupees, or 11 cents.

P&G’s goals are to first bring more consumers into Gillette and then try to lock them in to future purchases. 

To develop the Guard, P&G used target costing– starting with what consumers can afford and then adjust the features and manufacturing processes to meet the target.

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Excerpted from Wall Street Journal, “Gillette’s Latest Innovation in Razors: the 11-Cent Blade” By Ellen Byron,October 1, 2010

The Guard reflects P&G’s aggressive push into emerging markets for new customers and growth. That focus is forcing P&G to be more modest on scale and more flexible on price.

Gillette commands about 70% of the world’s razor and blade sales, but it lags behind rivals in India and other developing markets, mainly because those consumers can’t afford to buy its flagship products.

Gillette Guard is aiming to lure users of double-edge razors, about 400 million men in India, according to P&G estimates. In India, a brand called Super-Max holds the lead in double-edge blades, which cost roughly 1.5 to 2 rupees, which is half of the cost of even Gillette Guard.

The need to grow in emerging markets is pushing P&G to change its product-development strategy. In the past, P&G would sell basically the same premium products in developing countries, where only the wealthiest consumers could afford them. To reach more consumers, P&G changed course by creating pared-down products specifically designed to be less expensive.

P&G has a lot of ground to make up in India, where it estimates just 10% of men who shave use Gillette blades, compared with about 50% world-wide. Its plan is to get men to start using its products and then upgrade them as India’s economy grows.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704789404575524273890970954.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

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About the private sector job growth that Obama is touting …

October 11, 2010

The BLS reported that that private sector added 64,000 in September.

Point 1: ADP reported that the private sector cut 39,000 jobs in September … hmmm … one says up, one says down … wonder if the BLS chief got any ‘context’ from the White House ? … remember when the the CBO director got an invitation to the Oval Office when his healthcare numbers weren’t coming out right ?
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/07/republicans-assail-president-obama-meeting-with-congressional-budget-office-director-as-inappropriat.html

Point 2: Accepting the BLS number and putting it into perspective: there are roughly 120 million folks employed in the private sector, so 64,000 represents about  1/20th of 1 percent … better than a negative number, and better than nothing … but not by much …it means that the private sector is adding jobs at the galloping rate of about 1/2% annually … nothing to brag about
(64,000 / 120,000,000 = 0.053% X 12 = .64%)

Point 3: The BLS reports a 9.6% unemployment rate Gallup reports 10.1% … double hmmm

Ken’s Prediction: On the Friday after the election, the meager apparent jobs gain will be revised downward  and the unemployment rate will be revised up.  Just watch …

Dollar stores debate – thriving or hurting ?

October 11, 2010

Last week, we posted a seemingly innocuous excerpt from the NY Times about how dollar stores are thriving in the weak economy.

Got lightning fast feedback from a loyal Homa Files reader that an opinion to the contrary appeared in the WSJ:

Dollar stores have been all the rage in these penny-pinching times. But their growth prospects may be dimming.

The discount space is looking increasingly crowded. The three-biggest dollar stores, including Dollar Tree Inc., already have roughly a combined 20,000 locations in the U.S.

More troubling, the squeeze on dollar stores’ core, lower-end shoppers, is getting worse.

That is likely to put pressure on margins. Bargain prices on food, drinks and other “consumables” may get customers in the door, but discount retailers rely on higher-margin discretionary purchases for profit growth. Sales in the fiscal fourth quarter were strongest in the low-margin consumables category.

A weak economy mightn’t turn out to be quite the gold mine for dollar stores that many investors seem to think.

WSJ, Weak Economy Saps Dollar Stores’ Strength, Sept.  29, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704791004575520322560873584.html

Googling the topic revealed a debate in process on the topic.

Most notably, Jim Cramer – who has apparently been touting dollar stores on Mad Money – responded immediately to the WSJ story.  His verbatim comments:

“Never ever let a negative headline scare you out of the stock with a good long term story.

Case and point, last week the Wall Street Journal ran what may be the most absurd headline I’ve seen in ages, “Weak Economy Saps Dollar Stores’ Strength”.

I thought it was a comedy routine since Dollar Stores do well in a weak economy as a cash strapped consumer trades down the cheap stuff…..”

http://www.madmoneyrecap.com/madmoney_nightlyrecap_101006_3.htm

Ken’s Take: Dollar stores are either thriving or hurting … or just keeping pace … who the heck knows.

Thanks to RMM for feeding the lead

Gallup pegs unemployment @ 10.1% … says "expect BLS report to understate"

October 8, 2010

There are 3 main sources of unemployment data: ADP, Gallup, and the BLS, with the latter — the gov’t number — comes out today.

This week, ADP report that 39,000 private sector jobs were lost in Sept.

Now, Gallup is reporting a .7% rise in the unemployment rate to 10.1%, and an increase in the underemployment rate to 18.8%. Charts and link below.

So, the Recovery Summer Tour — showcasing the trillion dollar faux stimulus program — started with unemployment at 9.6%, and ends with the rate at 10.1%.

Some recovery …

Gallup says that most of the job losses came in the last 2 weeks of the month and probably won’t be reflected in today’s BLS numbers … they’ll show up in a revision that comes — you guessed it — 3 days after the mid-term elections. 

Hmmm.

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” The government’s final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup’s modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday’s ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government’s national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup’s mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

However, Gallup’s monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring.”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx

Either they don’t know how business works, or they just don’t care … here’s more evidence

October 8, 2010

According to the WSJ …

The issue: 2011 tax-withholding tables.

Treasury officials must release the tables, which determine the take-home pay of millions of wage-earners, by mid-November because it takes payroll processors weeks to adjust their systems before Jan. 1.

But congressional leaders recently postponed voting on taxes until after the election and lawmakers don’t reconvene until Nov. 15.

The Senate is scheduled to take up several nontax issues when it returns and is expected to leave for Thanksgiving soon after, possibly pushing a vote on taxes into December.

Treasury officials’ most obvious option is the least attractive. If they publish tables based on expiration of the Bush tax cuts, which occurs Jan. 1, millions of low- and middle-income taxpayers who have paid little or no income taxes for a decade would likely see increases in January.

It’s estimated that higher withholding could take up to $10 billion a month out workers’ pockets due to higher tax rates alone.

Excerpted from WSJ: Delays to Tax Tables May Dent Paychecks, Oct. 7, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575535861229293800.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews